Official 2011 NFL Football Thread - Preseason Edition

The Game Room
41

Yes, Orton is the safer pick. He is very likely to be an adequate starting QB. And he almost certainly will not ever be better than adequate.

Kolb has a greater chance of sucking, but he also has a much greater chance of actually being above average.

Given that the Cardinals have no QB prospects and are not exactly flush with talent surrounding him, I don’t see the sense in taking the safe choice. I’d rather take the chance on someone who has a chance to be good instead the guy who is sure to be just OK.

42

I don’t think Babin is going to get much less than Edwards will, and neither will be a good rotational player value. Between the two, of which I think neither is a very good choice, I’d rather have Edwards who is not only more of a known quantity but may also have some growth left. I think Babin is the worst possible choice. Expensive, old, and coming off a career year. And it’s starting to look like Babin might be more likely than Edwards. Ugh…

I don’t think he carries a lot of baggage, and he could very easily still have a couple good years left as a red zone specialist. The Eagles don’t really have a classic red zone threat. Who among the UDFAs excites you so? Seem ordinary to me, at that position.

Screw it, why not? They run nickel over half the time anyway. Then dump Samuel before he gets too expensive (his contract escalates quickly after this coming season). Hell, dump everyone and just put 11 corners out there. But honestly, yeah, you can’t fit the three together. I had forgotten Peterson was the fifth pick, somehow.

43

Burress is supposedly going to sign with either Pittsburgh or the Giants. Meanwhile I’m glad to see Carolina is keeping DeAngelo Williams.

44

Oh dear God. Please no. The Steelers don’t need any more receivers, least of all one who they had before and got rid of and had even less common sense with the Giants than he did with Pittsburgh.

45

I guess we’ll see – I’m betting some fool overpays for edwards.

Two- Johnson-Koulianos (or whatever) from Iowa was terrific in college before screwing up with drugs, and Brown from Southern Miss was terrific before that horrific freak injury. They’re UDFAs, but worth a roster spot.

Burress is not going to want to be the WR4, and I don’t want to retard Riley Cooper’s growth.

46

I don’t want Burress back on the Giants at all, not even a little tiny bit.

NFL Live was saying the Jets are pushing hard for Asomugha, which would be pretty sick. Happy they resigned Holmes, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, Braylon.

47

The Bengals signed Bruce Gradkowski. Superbowl here we come baby!

:smiley:

48

Why? Outside of hype and lack of experience, what makes you think Kolb has a higher upside? Because we don’t know enough about him?

You’re likely right that Orton will never develop into a top 5 stud QB, but he’s a damn fine QB who consistently puts up good, although not outstanding, numbers, and minimizes mistakes. He’s not flashy, he’s not hyped, and he’s suffered having to play for some pretty shitty teams, so he doesn’t get the respect he deserves. I think Denver is making a big mistake if they let him go.

49

I was looking at Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie’s stats at Football Outsiders earlier to see what type of player he may actually be. I was surprised by a couple things, and I found almost nothing conclusive to me. He was really, really bad in 2010, much worse than I had even heard. Not just the league’s worst tackler at corner, but awful in coverage as well. And he committed a ton of penalties too. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the worst regular starting corner in the NFL.

And yet for as bad as he was in 2010, he was that good in 2009. Very high success rates (third best in the NFL against the pass), few penalties, 6 INT. I sure wish there was some way to know which DRC the Eagles would be getting. A backup QB for 2009DRC is a steal, maybe even straight up. It stinks knowing the best asset the Eagles have, their biggest “upgrade chip,” is going to be used to bolster a position of glaring need and yet the team will open the season with as much uncertainty there as before.

50

After a 2 - 14 season, the Carolina Panthers can probably only improve. They’ve resigned Johnson, DeAngelo Williams and James Anderson, their top 3 in house FAs. I think they wildly overpaid Johnson, but they weren’t thrilled with replacement options and the Falcons were his biggest suitor. He caught lightning in a bottle with this contract. The Steve Smith situation is unresolved. Not sure where his head is at, or how Rivera views his presence on the team. On the one hand he’s still their best WR, but on the other he can really kill a rookie QBs confidence.

They have an awful lot of new to deal with. Coach and staff; QB. Oh yeah, and Jeremy Shockey.

They have a very tough schedule too. On top of all that the word is they are seriously considering bring Jake “Pick Six” Delhomme back in a veteran/mentor role. As long as he doesn’t actually get on the field…

Prediction: 4 - 12.

51

Turns out Locke failed his physical and won’t be with Minnesota at all. He apparently has a new team already but it hasn’t been disclosed. I think I’m interested because of his awesome name.

52

I wish to point out that Peter King picked the Lions to win the Super Bowl*.

*Pending free agency acquisitions.

53

Ha! Turns out Locke is now an Eagle. I guess I should have waited for that update.

Locke, Devine, Dion Lewis… the Eagles are collecting an army of Darren Sproleses.

54

I wonder why Palmer to the Cardinals isn’t being tossed around. It sounds like it could help both teams and not cost the Cards as much as Kolb is being dangled for.

55

Mike Brown is too stubborn to trade Palmer, he’d rather force him to retire.

56

And its fucking sad too. The Bengals could get a current starter from someone for him that would help the team right now.

57

Hooray for the new collective bargaining agreement…hopefully it means 1st round picks will sign sooner and add value back into the top 5 of the 1st round and more teams will be less afraid to trade up and down going forward.

Bengals signed AJ Green today. Dude should be a stud if someone can get him the ball.

58

I’m not anti-Orton; as I said, he’s OK, and you could do a hell of a lot worse. But, he’s 28 and has spent four seasons as a full-time starter for two different teams. He’s a pretty known quantity.

Kolb is two years younger and remains something of an enigma. He’s started a total of 12 games, and typical of young QBs, he’s mixed in some really good games with some disastrous ones. Which one is the real Kolb? We don’t know.

We know that Mike Martz, Josh McDaniels, and John Fox all agree that Orton’s not the kind of QB they want to build around.

We know that after watching him for three seasons, Andy Reid thought Kolb was the kind of QB he did want to build around. Maybe he thinks differently now, maybe not.
Add it up, and I see Kolb as having both a higher ceiling and a lower floor. Were in the Cardinals’ position, I’d be more inclined to roll the dice.

Of course, the other element is the pricetag – if the Eagles are asking for a first and a third, while the Broncos will take a seven, that makes a difference.

59

I’m not sure that “not knowing” is related to “better QB”. I think too often hype and the unknown quality replace actual production and success in the minds of NFL fans.
[Quote=furt]

We know that Mike Martz, Josh McDaniels, and John Fox all agree that Orton’s not the kind of QB they want to build around
[/quote]
Martz had to change his offense last year, McDaniels was fired, as was Fox (although I don’t think the press for Tebow over Orton is Fox’s call). I’m not sure they’re the best references. I also note none of them are trading for Kolb either.

[Quote=furt]
We know that after watching him for three seasons, Andy Reid thought Kolb was the kind of QB he did want to build around. Maybe he thinks differently now, maybe not.
[/quote]
If he was that high on Kolb, I doubt they’d be trading him.

[Quote=furt]
Add it up, and I see Kolb as having both a higher ceiling and a lower floor. Were in the Cardinals’ position, I’d be more inclined to roll the dice.
[/quote]
I think Kolb is overpriced for such an unproven quantity, and that Orton is a better option at QB. We will see though.

60

Which is why I didn’t say he is. You’re not grasping the point.

Like it or not, they are all NFL coaches who see these guys every day in practice. They’re not infallible, but I will venture to say they know more than you or I. And Martz preferred Cutler over Orton, and McDaniels and Fox both chose Tebow over Orton. Maybe they’re wrong, but you can’t just handwave that away like they’re all so much dumber than you.

Yep, and you can’t ignore that. On the other hand, it might also be that they have 2 good QBs, and if they could keep him they would, but they don’t want to let him walk after 2011 and get nothing. Only Reid knows for sure.

You say “better option” as if they are fixed quantities, like madden players who have static ratings. They aren’t; both have possibilities.

I’d say Orton has only 10% chance of being shitty this year; I’d put Kolb’s chances at about 3 times that. Maybe higher. If you go out 2-3 years in the future, it evens out, but IMO Orton still has better odds at being Non-Shitty.

Orton also has better odds at being Adequate or Pretty Good. He already is Pretty Good. If a team just needed a Pretty Good quarterback in order to be a serious contender, they’d be better with Orton.

The Cardinals are not that team. They are a crappy team who were, IIRC, 5-11 despite playing the NFL’s worst division. A Pretty Good quarterback makes them 8-8.

In order to be a contender in the forseeable future, Arizona needs a Really Good quarterback; a top-10 pro-bowl type. And IMO, the thing Kolb does have over Orton is a better possibility that he’ll be Really Good. Precisely because he’s played so much, we know Orton will likely not be Really Good, now or in three years. I’d say maybe 5-10% chance. I’d put Kolb’s at 15-20%.

Personally, I’d rather have the chance of excellence or disaster than the certainty of 8-8. YMMV.
And again – this is all ignoring the question of what the trades cost. If the Eagles are asking for a first and a third, as rumored, that’s a hell of a lot to give up.