Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest

[asahi]

@USCDiver

Why not?

My head hurts.

But my ego might compel me to make more specific predictions anyway.

[Pleonast]

@Fiveyearlurker

Interesting analysis, and I apologize if this is obvious to other people. Basically, 538 pointing out that at a certain point of Democratic party voting, GOP gerrymandering actually would break hard toward Democrats. The premise of gerrymandering being not wasting votes, so putting enough GOP votes to be considered “safe” within the districts that you intend to win, but no more than that. But, if what was considered safe when the districts was drawn shifts, then all of a sudden the dam breaks and those safe districts go Democrat.

The inflection point where the vote goes from linear to non-linear is about D+8.

I’ve been pointing this out for years:

@Pleonast

I think many people underestimate the potential impact of gerrymandering. Take Ohio, for example. The voting indices by district, in order from pro-Republican (+) to pro-Democrat (-) are: +14, +9, +9, +8, +8, +6, +6, +5, +5, +5, +3, +2, -12, -14, -15, -30. The baseline is 12 R and 4 D in the House, if the presidential race has no down-ticket impact. If there’s a 3.5-point effect in favor of the Democrats, it’ll go 10 R, 6 D. A 5.5-point effect, results in 7 R, 9 D. And 6.5 goes to 5 R, 11 D. In contrast, even a 10-point shift in favor of the Republicans does not result in the Democrats losing any seats.

Gerrymandering really tilts the results non-linearly.

I’m glad 538 is giving it more attention. It’s too mathy for most people to understand. But it’s exactly why as many people as possible should vote, especially in districts where they are often in the minority.

[Larry_Borgia]

@Jonathan_Chance

Check my work, people. This needs to be crowd sourced.

I didn’t see my guess in there. 215D 48D 50%D
Post 192

[Aspenglow]

@Fiveyearlurker

Interesting analysis, and I apologize if this is obvious to other people. Basically, 538 pointing out that at a certain point of Democratic party voting, GOP gerrymandering actually would break hard toward Democrats. The premise of gerrymandering being not wasting votes, so putting enough GOP votes to be considered “safe” within the districts that you intend to win, but no more than that. But, if what was considered safe when the districts was drawn shifts, then all of a sudden the dam breaks and those safe districts go Democrat.

The inflection point where the vote goes from linear to non-linear is about D+8.

… and now you know exactly why my prediction for the House is what it is. I believe Dems (in an honest election) will break in this way, and all that careful gerrymandering by Republicans is going to hoist them on their own petard in 2018.

I admit my Senate prediction may be a tad rosy, but not beyond what’s possible in a tsunami wave election. I do wish Heitkamp was doing better, but I admire her for her integrity.

I’m changing nothing.

[elucidator]

Beyond the mathematical fragility, there is the human, the political. This scheme is shrewd, a small but solid advantage that, over the long run, is a net positive for the Republican Party. Always going to be some flukes, sometimes the advantage isn’t enough, sometimes its more than needed, but its a net gain over all.

Except for the guy who doesn’t get elected because you nerfed his district. He’s expected to smile and take one for the team. But the team has changed. Now, its Trump’s team. The share of Republicans who adore President Shroomdick may be enough to nominate a candidate in the primary but not nearly enough to elect them, even given the built in margin.

If the Republican Party were still the Bob Dole/Poppy Bush Party, this would have been a pretty good plan. Utterly and irredeemably wrong, of course, but functional.

[Gray_Ghost]

Apologies if this has been said, but can we change our votes, and if so, what’s the deadline to do so? Not that I’m thinking of doing it, but just in case…

[septimus]

@Fiveyearlurker

Basically, 538 pointing out that at a certain point of Democratic party voting, GOP gerrymandering actually would break hard toward Democrats. …

The inflection point where the vote goes from linear to non-linear is about D+8.

In the House elections of 2012 and 2016 the popular vote was almost evenly split between Ds and R’s, yet the Rs got in each case about 55% of the seats. (Some of this advantage results from systemic, rather than deliberate, gerrymandering.) Expect this to get much worse in 2022. The GOP is already planning to rig the census; we now have a Supreme Court that loves all pro-GOP gerrymandering. And remember: When I write “popular vote” above, that includes only voters allowed to vote. Just at the very last moment, the GOP has disenfranchised perhaps hundreds of thousands of likely-D voters for the upcoming election.

Some of us were hoping for the “inflection point” you mention, but the tide seems to have turned back. The GOP has found a unifying issue it can rally around: Hatred for alleged victims of attempted rape.

[Ludovic]

Yeah I’m not going to be entering this because of the nonlinear effects. I very sure that the swing will be between 4 and 8 points but there is a huge difference in what happens to the House at those different levels.

[Pleonast]

@Gray_Ghost

Apologies if this has been said, but can we change our votes, and if so, what’s the deadline to do so? Not that I’m thinking of doing it, but just in case…

I expect anytime before election day.

@Ludovic

Yeah I’m not going to be entering this because of the nonlinear effects. I very sure that the swing will be between 4 and 8 points but there is a huge difference in what happens to the House at those different levels.

Pfft, that’s what makes it fun. We can all read the polls, but how that translates into Congressional seats is mostly guesswork.

Of course, my entry is the one that’s going to win, so it’s not like your guess would matter anyway.

[septimus]

@Gray_Ghost

Apologies if this has been said, but can we change our votes, and if so, what’s the deadline to do so? Not that I’m thinking of doing it, but just in case…

Date of entry is the 3rd tiebreaker; I think that’s to discourage late entries. However, it may be unlikely(*) that the 3rd tiebreaker will be applied, and there are still smart slots open. For example, the particular House seat count that Nate Silver’s site shows as most likely has zero takers right now!

• • Despite that claim, I see that there is 0.4% chance (using Silver’s numbers and assuming no new or changed entries) that Railer13 will be the grand winner instead o me just because his entry was on January 22, 6 days before mine! (Both he and I have almost 4% chance of winning w/o that tiebreaker.)

[septimus]

And based on the analysis I just did, I think my best play is to sacrifice my coveted January entry date and switch to
224, 48, 53%

[Jonathan_Chance]

@Gray_Ghost

Apologies if this has been said, but can we change our votes, and if so, what’s the deadline to do so? Not that I’m thinking of doing it, but just in case…

Yes, anytime before election day, November 6. I’m in the east so let’s say midnight, November 5, 2018.

I’ve been away - hey Cuba! - so I’ll catch up on updating the chart tonight if I can.

What’d I miss?

[Smitty]

House - 219R, 216D
Senate - 53R, 47D
Vote 51%D, 49%R

[Bijou_Drains]

we have a Dem running for Congress and her ads say she “worked in tobacco fields” , I guess as a kid. This is in NC. I guess that’s her trying to say she’s a regular person.

[Jonathan_Chance]

USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53
Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51
Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55
Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56
Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53
Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57
adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53
BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56
Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52
DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52
UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50
D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54
Melcalc 02/02/18 218 51 52
Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49
wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52
pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48
Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55
JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 215 48 50
Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54
Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55
septimus 10/10/18 224 48 53
Smitty 10/16/18 219 47 51

[Jonathan_Chance]

How’s everyone feeling? Confident? Not?

Still time to enter! Still time to change your guess!

Who’s with me here? Sound off, people? Show me you mean what you say!

[Richard_Parker]

D House seats: 228
D Senate seats: 48
D Vote %: 53

[iiandyiiii]

I could change my guess to match perfectly 538’s current prediction (which is what I would bet if there were truly any stakes for such a prediction), but my entry was deliberately on the optimistic side, and I’ll leave it there.

[Jonathan_Chance]

USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53
Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51
Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55
Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56
Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53
Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57
adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53
BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56
Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52
DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52
UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50
D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54
Melcalc 02/02/18 218 51 52
Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49
wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52
pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48
Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55
JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 215 48 50
Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54
Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55
septimus 10/10/18 224 48 53
Smitty 10/16/18 219 47 51
Richard Parker 10/31/18 228 48 53

[Bone]

Did USCdiver change his entry and I grabbed pole position?