221 + 48 dems
52%
USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53
Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51
Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55
Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56
Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53
Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57
adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53
BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56
Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52
DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52
UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50
D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54
Melcalc 02/02/18 218 51 52
Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49
wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52
pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48
Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55
JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 215 48 50
Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54
Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55
septimus 10/10/18 224 48 53
Smitty 10/16/18 219 47 51
Richard Parker 10/31/18 228 48 53
Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 215 46 52
Monocracy 11/05/18 233 49 54
Steve MB 11/05/18 232 50 54
Buck Godot 11/05/18 243 50 55
Will Farnaby 10/05/18 221 48 52
Tempting to change my answer to the average, which I suspect is going to be spot on. But the wisdom of the crowd demands independent judgment!
Finally weighing in at almost the last minute.
House
D: 217 R:218
Senate
D:47 R:53
% of vote
D:52 R:48
I would be delighted to be wrong.
Agh! I’d like to change my 52% to a 54% and my House Dem number to 230 Representatives, and the number of Democratic Senators to 50. I feel a bit morose that I put my estimate so late.
I’m wondering how many of you have included the “handicap”. We are playing Republican poker. They get seven cards, we get five, and all of ours are face up. Also, they get to draw twice. Even as it already stands, the Dems have to get a lot more votes that the other guys, because of the efforts of Gerald R. Mander, dyspeptically known as “Jerry”.
Which is to say, if you are calculating results based on the D’s simply getting more votes, then you are naive about the complex and intricate political system that the R’s fashioned, where one hundred and five votes counts for less than one hundred. Dems will almost certainly get more votes, but that doesn’t mean that the proportion of actual Representatives will correspond to that fact. Almost certainly not.
The upside, if you can call it that, is vulnerability. They siphoned off votes from their solidly safe districts to shore up the weaker. That made sense then, back when voting was more reliable, but that plan depends on the future following the past. The deck is stacked, the fix is in, but it only works if things are pretty much the same. If the Dems somehow overcome even* that*…Goodness gracious, sakes alive, that would be swell. But for all the really close races, the R’s will pull every trick in the book to try and get the election decided in the courts, flocks of lawyers will circle overhead.
Carrion, my wayward son…
The game is closed, my friends!
USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53
Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51
Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55
Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56
Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53
Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57
adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53
BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56
Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52
DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52
UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50
D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54
Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49
wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52
pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48
Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55
JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 215 48 50
Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54
Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55
septimus 10/10/18 224 48 53
Smitty 10/16/18 219 47 51
Richard Parker 10/31/18 228 48 53
Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 215 46 52
Monocracy 11/05/18 233 49 54
Steve MB 11/05/18 232 50 54
Buck Godot 11/05/18 243 50 55
Will Farnaby 11/05/18 221 48 52
Kolak of Twilo 11/05/18 217 47 52
Melcalc 11/05/18 230 50 54
I’m not sure the R’s will pursue every close race, but if D’s barely eke out control of one of the Houses, I’ll bet ten gallons of vodka that the R’s will litigate — especially since they can carry on their frauds all the way to Scotus where the partisan and misogynistic perjurer Bart O’Kavanaugh will give obeisance to his Godfather.
But this won’t affect the contest. IIUC Jonathan Chance will go with Wednesday’s network announcements.
I just returned from voting. The polling place in my area opened at 6:00 AM. I was there at 5:50 AM and there was a queue, longer than I expected and longer than I have ever seen at that location.
I live in a somewhat affluent suburb and didn’t have to actually wait until today to vote, but I wanted to see what was going on for myself. Without any actual data to back this up, I’d say the political demographic of my area is ~50% Democrat ~50% Republican. If there is any lean it’d probably be slightly Republican, so I really don’t know what to make of the heavy turnout this morning.
Fingers crossed that some Republicans in my town came to their senses and rejected the dark side.
House: 229 D, 206 R
Senate: 48 D, 52 R
Popular: 55% D, 45%R
Will all the races be announced by Wednesday? Because I’m hearing that there may be more than a few that won’t be called until later:
There are some really close races, today. There may be a few that are disputed. So our winner may not be apparent for a few days.
It May not. We’ll wait a few days if necessary.
One going into runoff it looks like …so more than a few.
Wow, I’m glad I didn’t go in, since my predicted % was pretty good as well as what I would probably have guessed for the House but there was no way I would have gone more than +1 swing GOP and probably would have gone anywhere from no change to +2 gain for dems.
OK, looks like 8-9 seats are still in play right now. I’m going to wait until we get more certainty there.
What’s everything think?
Yes, you have to wait. But looking at the entries, doesn’t look like anyone did particularly well.
Looks like ~230 Dem seats in the House, and 54 Repub Senate seats, most likely.
I think Richard Parker might be closest overall, but I don’t recall the exact rules of how to determine the winner.
wait, my entry didn’t count?
Hey, I might have nailed it in the House (228, predicted in March). But not the Senate. I knew I was being wildly optimistic for that.
I’m seeing 221 to 198 called, leaving 16 to be determined. Not sure how those ones are each leaning and not finding a great site for it.
FWIW JKellyMap *if *228 it is then nyah nyah I beat you to it by over 2 months. Still my 49 Senate seems to have been too generous to the D side.
DragonAsh, the contest was already closed.
We need final tallies but while I may be close (and give myself some props for its being close so early) it does look like Richard Parker’s near the end entry will be getting the cigar.