I’ll suggest Wikipedia, but we should wait until everything has been counted: 2018 United States House of Representatives elections - Wikipedia
I hereby honorably mention USCDiver in the case that the total ends up House D230 for that first out of the gate correct call. That out of the gate Senate guess though was dumb as rocks!
That mention and a please can get you a fine cuppa coffee at my kitchen counter. Need a bit more elsewhere … But making the point again: the actual basics that went into the calculation were pretty consistent this whole time and that stability is pretty notable.
As for the farthest off …
For serious entries I’m seeing this one: Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57 as the farthest off (dismissing kaylasdad’s as silly fun).
On the low side I’m seeing: pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48
Here’s what I’m seeing in the preliminary standings.
Ravenman is currently ahead with 3.5 points. Railer13 is in second at 4.5. However, wiki still shows many seats uncalled and I’ll update from there as needed. The numbers currently being used are:
House D: 226
Senate D: 46
Vote % D: 51.5
Worst guess, discounting kaylasdad, is Aspenglow at 62.5 points off the total.
Still some baseball to play, people.
Source for data:
USCDiver 01/21/18 10.5
Bone 01/22/18 16.5
Pleonast 01/22/18 37.5
Dseid 01/22/18 9.5
Railer13 01/22/18 4.5
Aspenglow 01/23/18 62.5
adaher 01/23/18 6.5
BobLibDem 01/23/18 43.5
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 9.5
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 17.5
Ravenman 01/24/18 3.5
DinoR 01/25/18 17.5
UltraVires 01/26/18 19.5
D’Anconia 01/27/18 18.5
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 17.5
Silver Lining 02/16/18 20.5
wonky 03/04/18 10.5
pjacks 03/04/18 30.5
Sherrerd 03/05/18 27.5
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 23.5
JkellyMap 03/25/18 9.5
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 269.5
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 21.5
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 9.5
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 14.5
Pleonast 08/17/18 32.5
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 8.5
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 9.5
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 9.5
Thing Fish 09/13/18 23.5
septimus 10/10/18 5.5
Smitty 10/16/18 8.5
Richard Parker 10/31/18 5.5
Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 11.5
Monocracy 11/05/18 12.5
Steve MB 11/05/18 12.5
Buck Godot 11/05/18 24.5
Will Farnaby 11/05/18 7.5
Kolak of Twilo 11/05/18 10.5
Melcalc 11/05/18 10.5
To be fair, in January, on the heels of the Alabama Senate special election, it seemed reasonable!
Of course the seats numbers are still in play but you may want to recalculate your House popular vote percentage number. Using your source D/(D+R) is more like 53.3%. Which seriously makes USCDiver’s first to post entry all the more noteworthy.
I simply used the percentage available on the wiki page, really. If it’s off, I’ll double check.
And yes, it’s been updated since this morning.
House 227
Senate 46
Vote D 52.4
Updated:
USCDiver 01/21/18 8.6
Bone 01/22/18 18.4
Pleonast 01/22/18 35.6
Dseid 01/22/18 7.6
Railer13 01/22/18 4.6
Aspenglow 01/23/18 60.6
adaher 01/23/18 6.6
BobLibDem 01/23/18 41.6
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 9.6
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 15.6
Ravenman 01/24/18 4.4
DinoR 01/25/18 16.4
UltraVires 01/26/18 21.4
D’Anconia 01/27/18 20.4
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 17.6
Silver Lining 02/16/18 22.4
wonky 03/04/18 11.4
pjacks 03/04/18 32.4
Sherrerd 03/05/18 27.6
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 21.6
JkellyMap 03/25/18 7.6
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 267.6
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 23.4
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 11.4
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 16.4
Pleonast 08/17/18 30.6
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 9.4
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 9.6
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 7.6
Thing Fish 09/13/18 21.6
septimus 10/10/18 5.6
Smitty 10/16/18 10.4
Richard Parker 10/31/18 3.6
Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 12.4
Monocracy 11/05/18 10.6
Steve MB 11/05/18 10.6
Buck Godot 11/05/18 22.6
Will Farnaby 11/05/18 8.4
Kolak of Twilo 11/05/18 11.4
Melcalc 11/05/18 8.6
Note that the new leaders are:
Richard Parker 3.6
Ravenman 4.4
Railer13 4.6
As the number of D house seats grows Richard Parker’s case gets stronger and Ravenman and Railer13’s cases grow weaker. But once it gets above 228, Richard Parker will again start to lose ground.
USCDiver could still pull it out as the final tally moves toward 230+ for the house. Though his Senate guess of 51 will work against him, there.
Interesting times.
Worst scores
Aspenglow 60.6
BobLibDem 41.6
pjacks 32.4
Pleonast 30.6
Sorry but you still need to correct. The rules are not as the percent of total vote but the percent of total R+D only (see posts 28 to 30). Not that it impacts the contest results but again it does give some decent braggin’ rights to USCDiver. It may very well be that that very first entry from early January will have two of three portions dead on.
Oops. Good call. I’ll correct for it with my next update. I’ll still put from the wiki page but correct the spreadsheet.
Hell with it. I’ll do it now. The kids are raising hell somewhere else right now.
OK
House D 227
Senate R 46
Vote D 53.30%
Outcomes:
USCDiver 01/21/18 8.30
Bone 01/22/18 19.30
Pleonast 01/22/18 34.70
Dseid 01/22/18 6.70
Railer13 01/22/18 4.30
Aspenglow 01/23/18 59.70
adaher 01/23/18 6.30
BobLibDem 01/23/18 40.70
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 8.70
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 14.70
Ravenman 01/24/18 5.30
DinoR 01/25/18 17.30
UltraVires 01/26/18 22.30
D’Anconia 01/27/18 21.30
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 16.70
Silver Lining 02/16/18 23.30
wonky 03/04/18 12.30
pjacks 03/04/18 33.30
Sherrerd 03/05/18 27.30
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 20.70
JkellyMap 03/25/18 6.70
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 266.70
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 24.30
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 12.30
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 17.30
Pleonast 08/17/18 29.70
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 10.30
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 8.70
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 6.70
Thing Fish 09/13/18 20.70
septimus 10/10/18 5.30
Smitty 10/16/18 11.30
Richard Parker 10/31/18 3.30
Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 13.30
Monocracy 11/05/18 9.70
Steve MB 11/05/18 9.70
Buck Godot 11/05/18 21.70
Will Farnaby 11/05/18 9.30
Kolak of Twilo 11/05/18 12.30
Melcalc 11/05/18 7.70
New leaders:
Richard Parker 3.3
Railer13 4.3
Ravenman 5.3
septimus 5.3
Some smallish updates as final numbers tally in. We’ve had calls in the Senate and the House as well as an update on the total vote so here’s the latest:
USCDiver 01/21/18 6.30
Bone 01/22/18 19.30
Pleonast 01/22/18 32.70
Dseid 01/22/18 4.70
Railer13 01/22/18 4.30
Aspenglow 01/23/18 57.70
adaher 01/23/18 8.30
BobLibDem 01/23/18 38.70
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 10.70
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 12.70
Ravenman 01/24/18 5.30
DinoR 01/25/18 15.30
UltraVires 01/26/18 24.30
D’Anconia 01/27/18 21.30
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 16.70
Silver Lining 02/16/18 23.30
wonky 03/04/18 12.30
pjacks 03/04/18 35.30
Sherrerd 03/05/18 27.30
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 18.70
JkellyMap 03/25/18 4.70
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 264.70
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 24.30
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 12.30
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 17.30
Pleonast 08/17/18 27.70
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 10.30
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 8.70
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 4.70
Thing Fish 09/13/18 18.70
septimus 10/10/18 5.30
Smitty 10/16/18 11.30
Richard Parker 10/31/18 1.30
Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 15.30
Monocracy 11/05/18 7.70
Steve MB 11/05/18 7.70
Buck Godot 11/05/18 19.70
Will Farnaby 11/05/18 9.30
Kolak of Twilo 11/05/18 12.30
Melcalc 11/05/18 5.70
Leaders:
Richard Parker 1.3
Railer13 4.3
Dseid 4.7
Tired and Cranky 4.7
Interestingly, this might be the high water mark for our leader, Richard Parker. His House guess is now exactly on but with several still to be called he can only get further away now.
Railer 13 is now moving further away from unity as his guess of 225 in the House is now beginning to work against him. That guess of 48 senators and 53% D Vote should hold up pretty well.
Meanwhile, Dseid’s 56% guess for D Vote is liable to be a burden over the long haul. The actual vote total right now is hovering right around 53.3% so his guess is not going to help him.
Tired and Cranky is new to the leaderboard as more calls come in. However, I think that senate call of 51 will work against them once the rest of the votes come in.
Bubbling under? USCDiver is still in the hunt with a guess of 230, 51, 53% and the trio of Melcalc, Steve MB and Monocracy are all well positioned to move up the rankings as more seats are called in the house. Monocracy, in particular, is well poised to take the lead at 233, 49, 54%.
I think Richard Parker is had to unseat as the winner by anyone other than Monocracy (if the House keeps rising) as it would require both the remaining Senate seats to go D-ward - highly unlikely - and my popular vote guess does makes a win for me impossible at this point - but a reminder/clarification of your stated scoring system: the score is based on the total number of seats off as the main contest and popular vote as the tiebreaker, not part of the main score. My off popular vote guess would only be pertinent if the other two resulted in a tie score.
So, hypothetically, if the end numbers are 230 48 53 then Richard Parker would have a score of 2, I’d be 3, and USCDiver would be 3 (but would beat me in a tie of the main contest if the Senate moved up to 49).
Two more races called for the democratic party, here. Plus a bunch more vote totals in. We await seven more house seats and two senate seats.
USCDiver 01/21/18 4.00
Bone 01/22/18 19.00
Pleonast 01/22/18 29.00
Dseid 01/22/18 4.00
Railer13 01/22/18 6.00
Aspenglow 01/23/18 52.00
adaher 01/23/18 10.00
BobLibDem 01/23/18 34.00
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 11.00
Wesley Clark 01/24/18 8.00
Ravenman 01/24/18 6.00
DinoR 01/25/18 12.00
UltraVires 01/26/18 23.00
D’Anconia 01/27/18 21.00
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 18.00
Silver Lining 02/16/18 21.00
wonky 03/04/18 13.00
pjacks 03/04/18 32.00
Sherrerd 03/05/18 29.00
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 15.00
JkellyMap 03/25/18 6.00
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 216.00
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 22.00
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 12.00
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 16.00
Pleonast 08/17/18 24.00
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 11.00
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 10.00
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 6.00
Thing Fish 09/13/18 15.00
septimus 10/10/18 7.00
Smitty 10/16/18 11.00
Richard Parker 10/31/18 3.00
Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 16.00
Monocracy 11/05/18 5.00
Steve MB 11/05/18 5.00
Buck Godot 11/05/18 16.00
Will Farnaby 11/05/18 10.00
Kolak of Twilo 11/05/18 13.00
Melcalc 11/05/18 3.00
Current leaderboard:
Richard Parker and Melcalc: 3.00
USCDiver and DSeid: 4.00
Monocacy and Steve MB: 5.00
Looking at it, I’m really surprised how few picks we had with Democrats taking seats in the 230 range. Monocacy’s bid of 233 might just be the decision maker in the end.
I think I’ve got the lead now with 231 confirmed D House seats.
Although, if the Dems keep doing well, Wesley Clark could pull this one off. If it hits 235, the win goes to him.
With the new results:
Leaders:
**Tied at 4: **
Richard Parker
Monocacy
Steve MB
Malcalc
Tied at 5:
USCDiver
Dseid
Furthest out:
51
Aspenglow
Tied at 33
BobLibDem
pjacks
30
Sherrerd
28
Pleonast
For the benefit of those of us watching from the cheap seats, which House races haven’t been officially called yet?
Yeah, I tried looking it up. CNN and Vox both say 7 races are still not over. They agree on only 4 of them.