Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest

[USCDiver]

@Bone

Will we start watering our crops with Gatorade because of the electrolytes? I’m not ruling that out!

This early is basically a crap shoot, but I want to guess early to preserve my spot

Why would we use Gatorade? It’s Brawndo[sup]TM[/sup] that’s “got what plants crave”.

[DSeid]

@Jonathan_Chance

But that’s assuming current trends continue. Trump’s underwater, sure, but the amount is decreasing. So is the generic congressional number. The race will tighten over the course of the year …

Trump’s underwater is decreasing? 538’s aggregate has his disapproval running at 55+/- 2 pretty much since May, and approval at 38+/-2 since then. Current number 55.8 to 39. Gallup’s current 25 point underwater is also fairly steady.

The generic ballot had a blip up to Dem through December to as high as D+13 and after the shutdown misplay is now back to its longer term baseline of of D+8ish. If Enten of 538 is to be believed, “most large shifts on the generic ballot from this point onward have occurred against the party that holds the White House.” Moreover, that the poling impact of a shutdown are likely to be shortlived. On what do you base a confident assertion that the race will tighten? It might, but why are you saying such?

I’m guessing the generic returns to about D+8-12 as news cycles shift. How that polling plays out is as noted multiple times in this thread already based on how revved or not each side is. The likelihood a flip in the usual midterm dynamic with less of a dropoff on the D side than on the R side instead of the more usual converse is the big wildcard. Polls that use historical partisan midterm turnout to model their data may be way off if that happens.

[Jonathan_Chance]

1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D

[Melcalc]

I might as well throw my hat in.
House: 235 D
Senate: 51 D
Vote: 53% D

[Jonathan_Chance]

1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D
Melcalc House 235D Senate 51D Vote 53%

[Jonathan_Chance]

And a bit of fun.

At the end of the first month of 2018, with nine months - and some days - to go until the midterms the averages are:

[ul]
[li]230.764D for the House of Representatives[/li]
[li]49.176D for the Senate[/li]
[li]53.529D for the Vote Tally[/li][/ul]

USCDiver continues to be our earliest pick. Will that last? Only time will tell!

[Pleonast]

Jonathan Chance, is there any particular reason you haven’t made a guess?

[Jonathan_Chance]

Honestly, it hadn’t occurred to me. As the guy running the contest - and a moderator of this forum - I sort of considered myself out of the action.

[Bone]

It’s not like there’s any opportunity to act improperly by fielding a guess yourself. You should do so, so I can make fun of how wrong you will be

[Jonathan_Chance]

Why do we keep you around, again?

I’ll think on it.

[Jonathan_Chance]

@DSeid

Trump’s underwater is decreasing? 538’s aggregate has his disapproval running at 55+/- 2 pretty much since May, and approval at 38+/-2 since then. Current number 55.8 to 39. Gallup’s current 25 point underwater is also fairly steady.

Closing I said, closing I meant. There’s been a steady lowering of his disapproval which every few weeks he seems determined to bump back up.

Today’s trendline, for instance, has his disapproval dropping to 54.8% - down from 56.4 a week or so ago - and his approval doing the inverse at 39.7%. So today in the aggregate he’s underwater by 15.1%. Now, that ain’t good, but it beats being underwater by 20% six weeks ago.

The Congressional Generic is doing so as well. After being at 13.3% underwater a few weeks ago it’s now sitting at 5.7%. So there’s a lot of baseball yet to play.

[Wesley_Clark]

@Ravenman

How about we pick an over/under for total Democratic votes in House midterms, and make a side wager? Since you are predicting 50-56 million Democratic votes, I propose this: a $50 bet. If there are 49 million or more Democratic votes, you win. Less than 49 million, I win.

Whaddya think?

$50 is too much money. I’ll do $20. If there are 49 million or more democratic votes, I win. Seeing how the GOP got 45 million votes in 2010, I’d like to think 49 million in 2018 is feasible because the US population is higher, and democrats are more motivated in 2018 than the GOP was in 2010.

I accept cash, checks and food stamps as payment.

[Melcalc]

House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%
A slight adjustment.

[Jonathan_Chance]

1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D
2/2/18
Melcalc House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%

[Melcalc]

I updated it to 218D, not 235D, and the vote share to 52%.

[Jonathan_Chance]

Pasted the wrong one. It’s updated in my spreadsheet. I’ll fix it.

[Silver_lining]

House Republicans +17 edge overall all too lazy to do the math right now.
Senate, Republicans 53, Dems 47
Vote Republicans 51.5%

[Jonathan_Chance]

1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D
2/2/18
Melcalc House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%D
2/16/18
Silver lining 209D Senate 47D Vote 48.5%D

[Jonathan_Chance]

Discussion:

Has any of the recent events made anyone rethink their position vis-a-vis the outcome in November? Trump’s popularity has both spiked and declined and the White House has certainly had a rough week.

In addition, the generic congressional aggregate number now sits about 8 having been at 6 just a few weeks ago.

[Pleonast]

I’m not too concerned about volatility in the polls. The president continually self sabotages his own positions. While he has his loyalists, most people are going to vote for more brakes on the clown car. The only question is “will this election be a tide or a tsunami?”.