I’ll try: HR: 230D, 205R. Sen: 50-50. Vote %: 53D, 47R.
The Votemaster shows the generic D up 15% on the generic R, but no generics are running. Incumbents always have a big advantage. As pointed out, in a wave election, gerrymandering can backfire. The Penna senate seems prepared the impeach and convict the entire D majority on the state supreme court. Then refight the gerrymandering case. But if the court-ordered districting holds, that alone will add about 5 D seats.
That’s not a safe assumption, given that Republican turnout will be massive—they are VERY disturbed by the uppity teens advocating for gun control, and by the uppity females calling out males for misconduct. Add in the ongoing GOP and Russian shenanigans with all aspects of the voting process, from registrations to voting machines, and you have what will be–at best–tight races for the Democrats, nationwide.
What are basing that on?
1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D
2/2/18
Melcalc House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%D
2/16/18
Silver lining 209D Senate 47D Vote 48.5%D
3/2/18
Hari Seldon 230D 50D Vote 53D
I’d be interested in hearing the basis for this, too. Is there any data to indicate such?
Are basing on paying attention to what the right pays attention to (Fox News, Rush, etc.) The sheer amount of time devoted to the theory that the Parkland kids are actors or puppets, for example, indicates a strong negative reaction to the advocacy the kids are engaged in.
Data to indicate that people on the right are unhappy about the Parkland kids advocating for gun control? Data to indicate that people on the right are unhappy about women calling out men for sexual misconduct?
If you doubt that these phenomena exist, then I’m not sure what sort of data would convince you.
Reputable polling is generally not so subtle or specific as to ask respondents ‘do you think the Parkland kids are actors?’ or ‘do you think teens calling for gun control are puppets of George Soros?’ or ‘do you think that most women who report sexual abuse are liars’ or ‘do you think the whole ‘metoo’ movement is a bunch of bullshit?’ And it’s certainly not specific enough to ask ‘are you more likely to vote because of your negative reaction to the activities of the kids/women?’
The best you will probably find is polling that asks general questions on views on gun control and sex-abuse reporting itself (as opposed to opinions about the current movements). For example, from two days ago:
NPR Poll: After Parkland, Number of Americans Who Want Gun Restrictions Grows : NPR
It doesn’t appear that this poll or similar polls are asking specifically about either reactions to current movements (on gun control and on sexual harassment), or about the degree to which such reactions might act to motivate voters. The difference in voter turnout in our world, as compared with voter turnout in a world in which the two movements I referenced never existed, is of course a matter for alternate-universe speculation–not data.
If anyone prefers to believe that a lack of polls that specifically target reaction to the movements, means that the movements will have no effect on voter turnout, then by all means they should have at it. I think they’d be on shaky ground with such reasoning, but it’s their business, after all.
That’s what I figured. I doubt there’s a strong correlation between Fox covering a story/angle and Republican voter turnout.
House 219 D
Senate 49 D
Vote 52% D
1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D
2/2/18
Melcalc House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%D
2/16/18
Silver lining 209D Senate 47D Vote 48.5%D
3/2/18
Hari Seldon 230D 50D Vote 53D
3/4/18
wonky 219D 49D 52D
House D-200
Senate D-45
Vote D-48%
It’s not an assumption, it’s a prediction. 
What’s your prediction, by the way?
1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D
2/2/18
Melcalc House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%D
2/16/18
Silver lining 209D Senate 47D Vote 48.5%D
3/2/18
Hari Seldon 230D 50D Vote 53D
3/4/18
wonky 219D 49D 52D
pjacks 200D 45D 48D
And pjacks delivers a new low outcome for the D side of the ledger!
Right now we’re sitting at 6 of 21 predictions saying the D will not take the house 14 of 21 saying the D will not take the Senate (I am considering 50-50 split being in favor of the R side). In addition, we have only 2 of 21 saying that the national vote total won’t either be tied or a win for the D side.
Interesting numbers, people. Interesting.
Due to a combination of energized GOP turnout and GOP-plus-Russian dirty tricks, added to Democratic complacency, and of course the effects of gerrymandering, I am pessimistic:
House: 201 Dem, 234 Rep
Senate: 47 Dem, 53 Rep
Popular vote: 53% Democratic
Doesn’t this violate the rule against fractions?
I think the Republicans are trying to energize their base, but I don’t think it’s working. At least, yet.
I’m not sure why you think the Democrats are going to be complacent. Now that two generations of Democratic-leaning voters have been burned by complacency (in 2000 and 2016), I think the energy will be sustainable for at least a decade.
Russian meddling is going to be two-edged sword. The pro-Republican Russian trolls will still be there. But there’ll also be a contingent of anti-Republican trolls. Russia wants to weaken the US–a Democratic House will split Congress and emasculate the President. (I don’t actually believe a split government weakens the US, but Russia believes it does.)
There’s an old saying: a catamaran has two stable states, one up and one down. Likewise, gerrymandering helps the controlling party until a wave election flips the boat. I’m predicting a wave of 5-7 points in favor of the Democrats. All those districts gerrymandered within that range are vulnerable. Only the districts favoring Republicans by 10 or more are going to be truly safe.
Complacency is the default state for people who aren’t activists. The Republican party has successfully turned many of their voters into life-long activists. The Democratic party hasn’t yet done that.
I think people are underestimating Russia gearing up for another propaganda campaign at the end of the year. Yes, Democrats have performed well in local races so far, but just wait until you see the endless stream of facebook conspiracy theories about Democrat candidates before the midterms. By the end of the onslaught, red state Dems will all be branded as corrupt tools of Satan, and all of that will be amplified by the President’s endless tweeting. His base is going to vote out of hate for the other side, and hate is a powerful motivator.
1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D
2/2/18
Melcalc House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%D
2/16/18
Silver lining 209D Senate 47D Vote 49%D
3/2/18
Hari Seldon 230D 50D Vote 53D
3/4/18
wonky 219D 49D 52D
pjacks 200D 45D 48D
3/5/18
Sherrerd 201D 47D 53%D
It’s a nice idea, but I think wonky is right:
Anytime I see the phrases “blue wave” or “blue tsunami,” I suspect that the users either are getting paychecks to use them, or are letting themselves be influenced by someone getting a paycheck to use them. (Hint: the paychecks are NOT coming from the Democratic side.)
The phrases are very comforting to those who are horrified by Trump but still not very enthusiastic about registering to vote and voting. The phrases let such people think ‘oh, it’s going to be okay–I don’t need to vote!’ (Exactly as planned by those who want GOP majorities to remain in both House and Senate.)
Yes, I think this is all accurate.
Roger Stone et al won’t have forgotten how effective their ‘take down Al Franken’ campaign was. They will be using it again, given that Democrats are willing to deep-six their own people without investigation or due process.
Count on seeing similar campaigns bursting on the media scene a week or two before the elections. The GOP may well bag a couple of Senate seats that way.
Absolutely right! I’ve rounded it up, per rounding convention.