Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest

[Johnny_Ace]

@pjacks

I think people are underestimating Russia gearing up for another propaganda campaign at the end of the year. Yes, Democrats have performed well in local races so far, but just wait until you see the endless stream of facebook conspiracy theories about Democrat candidates before the midterms. By the end of the onslaught, red state Dems will all be branded as corrupt tools of Satan, and all of that will be amplified by the President’s endless tweeting. His base is going to vote out of hate for the other side, and hate is a powerful motivator.

Who needs Russia? They’ve got Fox.

[DSeid]

So does the PA-18 result alter anyone’s bets?

Current 538 generic ballot is D+8.4. Better than the under 6 it had gotten down to but not the 12 plus it had been in December. But aggregated special election results, including this one are more in line with the 12 plus and emphasis on the plus.

[Johnny_Ace]

@DSeid

So does the PA-18 result alter anyone’s bets?

Current 538 generic ballot is D+8.4. Better than the under 6 it had gotten down to but not the 12 plus it had been in December. But aggregated special election results, including this one are more in line with the 12 plus and emphasis on the plus.

I need another eight tenths, but I’m comfortably in the zone. No point in giving up position to change.

[Jonathan_Chance]

And that’s the calculus, isn’t it?

However, I think PA-18 is one more indication that R enthusiasm is not there. 538 this morning has indications that up to 110(!!!) districts could be in play - up from a standard in-play of about 20 - if the swing in PA-18 is indicative of a national trend. That has the potential to make the House 273D. I think that’s - at best - unachieveable. On the other hand, if 2.3 of those in play flip we’d be looking at 253D.

Only 3 of you have so far guessed in that ballpark.

Gonna be an interesting year.

[DSeid]

That “up to” is a generous interpretation of that 538 bit. They are just quoting Vox and that’s based on the 20 point swing this specific election represents.

Here’s from their past take.

… Democrats need to win the national House vote by 5.5 to 8 points to win the House. … There are 58 Republicans in seats with a partisan lean of +12 points Republican or less. This includes representatives like House Speaker Paul Ryan and Dave Brat (who took out Eric Cantor in 2014). There are an astronomical 103 seats that have a partisan lean of +18 Republican or less. …

Yes, 2/3s is a reasonable fraction of those that in play to hope to win.

So is the likely actual result going to be anything close to D+20? I’m sticking with D+12 (56%), better than the generic ballot is running but less than the special elections would portend, and from there a swing of 39ish seats follows.

[Jonathan_Chance]

Which is still a pretty large swing. Hell, the Contract with America year only had 54 and that shifted things for more than a decade.

[DSeid]

And is slightly higher than the contest’s current median of, I think, 221 to 222.

And more than 80% of the contestants think the spread will be D+10 or less.

[Jonathan_Chance]

Clearly, we need more contestants.

Hint hint.

[iiandyiiii]

Sure, why not, though it’s basically a guess: 241D, 51D, 55%. Why not be optimistic.

[wolfman]

I don’t think the average Dem swing percent is the overriding issue. I expect a great deal of deviation from race to race in other words. There has been a lot of talk about Moore and Saccone being bad candidates, But I don’t expect that to be the exception. The Trump cult is looking for hate-spewing, frothing-mouth, reprobates and will succeed on putting them on the ballot out of a lot of the primaries. And the deeper the historic Dem disadvantage, is also where the Trump taint is strongest, and will put the worst candidates on the general ballot. I expect there will several massive Dem increases in places where the hole is deepest, and smaller swing where it is historically more even.Almost a self-fulfilling effect pulling races toward a competitive point.

I doubt Lamb will be close to the last under 1000 vote victory margin for either side we see over the next year.

[DSeid]

Of course there will be deviation from race to race … and they’ll average out to, well, the average. Deviation one way has to be met with deviation another way elsewhere.

Per 538:

Counting Tuesday’s result, Democratic candidates in federal special elections have now outperformed the normal partisan leans of their state or district by an average of 17 percentage points. In recent midterm election cycles, that number has tracked closely with the eventual national popular vote for the U.S. House.

If that past really is predictive of near term future events, rather than the 8 to 9 the generic poll tracker is running, and rather than the compromise 12 I’m expecting, then the over/unders of individual races with individual good and bad candidates will still mean 90something seat currently GOP in play and getting about 60 a reasonably fair guess.

And the following from the same 538 article may help explain why the polls are running lower than the special elections, and may be underestimating the D advantage. Remember that polls are not raw data but are results massaged to model expected turnouts based on past turnouts. That past mid-term turnout runs quite a bit off from presidential election years and typically the drop-off is much greater on the D than on the R side.

@538 more

…The number of votes Lamb received was 80 percent of the number of votes Clinton received in this district in 2016 — but Saccone got just 53 percent of the number of votes Trump got. Anecdotally, turnout was also much higher in Democratic precincts than it was in Republican precincts. But, crucially for Democrats, the results hinted that maybe that Democratic turnout advantage is transferable to the higher-turnout environment of a midterm election. The 228,177 votes cast in the special election exceeded the 214,912 votes the 18th District cast in Pennsylvania’s 2014 gubernatorial election. In other words, turnout on Tuesday was even higher than it was in the last midterm…

If there is one race I’d love to see some overperforming in it’s WI 1. Paul Ryan getting best is a reach (last election he won by something like 35 points) but dang that would be great. And it has been swingy in the past - it went Obama '08. A solid candidate might have a chance.

[septimus]

The recent PA election was joyous; I may need to revise my numbers upward.

I’m one of five contestants showing “Senate 50D.” 51D would be so sweet they should ring all the bells in the land … but I’m afraid 51D is too much to even hope for.

[wonky]

@septimus

The recent PA election was joyous; I may need to revise my numbers upward.

I’m one of five contestants showing “Senate 50D.” 51D would be so sweet they should ring all the bells in the land … but I’m afraid 51D is too much to even hope for.

Getting the senate isn’t impossible, but boy howdy, it’s a tall order.

[DSeid]

I think many of the the many of us who doubt that lift would be happy to lose this contest on that basis!

[wonky]

@DSeid

I think many of the the many of us who doubt that lift would be happy to lose this contest on that basis!

I’d be delighted, especially since that would almost certainly mean that Ted Cruz lost.

[Jonathan_Chance]

1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
1/27/18
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D
1/28/18
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
1/30/18
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D
2/2/18
Melcalc House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%D
2/16/18
Silver lining 209D Senate 47D Vote 49%D
3/2/18
Hari Seldon 230D 50D Vote 53D
3/4/18
wonky 219D 49D 52D
pjacks 200D 45D 48D
3/5/18
Sherrerd 201D 47D 53%D
3/15/18
iiandyiiii 241D 51D 55%D

[Jonathan_Chance]

Now, does the SCOTUS rejecting Pennsylvania’s appeal about the new districts change anyone’s minds? I believe it moves the House marginally more likely toward a democratic majority.

[DinoR]

@Jonathan_Chance

Now, does the SCOTUS rejecting Pennsylvania’s appeal about the new districts change anyone’s minds?

No. An expected three seats change based on last cycles vote isn’t that much in a race of 435 seats. This is also not the last cycle, with a Presidential race at the top of the ticket. This is a midterm race with all that usually entails. The shift may well be offset by reductions of possible upside in a midterm. I haven’t seen a good analysis but that possibility is one of the side effects. Breaking up R+5-10 districts that are safe in normal elections but at risk in a midterm wave reduces the potential upside for Democrats.

With all of that in the mix I am keeping my earlier date until I see more from the primary races in toss up districts. My plan is for that to be my only change unless I am WAY off at the last minute.

[Johnny_Ace]

@Jonathan_Chance

Now, does the SCOTUS rejecting Pennsylvania’s appeal about the new districts change anyone’s minds? I believe it moves the House marginally more likely toward a democratic majority.

Not for me. I have zero faith in low-information voters whatsoever after 2016. I still think it’ll be a slim Dem majority in the House and no more.

[Thing_Fish]

House Dem 248-187
Senate Dem 52-48
Dems 55% of two party vote

Specifically, in the Senate I see the Dems picking up two seats in AZ (Guessing McCain will have to resign due to health reasons), and one in NV, and holding all their own seats.