OK ,Now Tiger Woods domination is over

The Game Room
21

I am FAR from ready to say Tiger is fading. After all, he’s not missing cuts, and he’s not finishing 15 strokes back. He’s been playing very well by anybody’s standards but his own. And it won’t surprise me a bit if he recovers, wins a bunch more majors, and makes his doubters look foolish.

BUT…

I’d like to point you to a column by Joe Posnanski, one that asks a few good questions.

A year ago, if you’d asked most golf fans, they’d have told you that Tiger Woods was SURE to surpass Jack Nicklaus’ record for major tournaments won. It was a matter of WHEN and not IF. Indeed, I’d have been one of those fans saying so. Nicklaus has 18 majors, and Tiger currently has 14. MOST of us assumed, not long ago, that Tiger Woods was absolutely certain to win at least 5 more majors.

Well, says Posnanski, that may be true. But think about this: Nobody else on the PGA tour today has won 5 majors! Nobody! We’ve been taking it for granted that Tiger Woods will easily do something that NONE of his contemporaries have managed to do.

Moreover, there’s only one golfer in PGA history who has won 5 majors after his 33rd birthday. Exactly ONE! That’s Jack Nicklaus.

We’ve been taking it for granted that Tiger will do something only ONE other golfer in history has done.

There’s a REASON Nicklaus’ record has lasted a long time, and it’s not just that Nicklaus was great. It’s that it’s hard to stay competitive at a high level for a long, long time. Tom Watson, in his prime, was as good as Nicklaus… but he NEVER won a PGA tournament after he turned 34.

Tiger is 33, which SEEMS awfully young to many of us. If he were a lawyer of banker or executive, he WOULD be very young. But in sports, 33 is not young at all. Tiger is better tained and better conditioned than his rivals, so he MAY very well overcome all obstacles. Just remember that, great though he is, he starting to get “old” (I feel weird, as a 48 year old, calling a much younger man “old”!), he’s starting to have physical problems, and he’s starting to square off now against younger golfers for whom HE set the standard.

I think he’ll remain the best in the world for some time, and he WILLbe great again, but he’s not likely to DOMINATE again.

22

Of course, he has also been quoted as saying that the TPC (Now called “The Players”) is the fifth major. That might indicate he’s motivated to win it more than, say, Bay Hill or the various Buick Opens.

And he purposefully played last week at Quail Hollow in large part to tune up for Sawgrass.

23

Nitpick: Hogan won all 9 of his majors past age 33; Sam Snead 6.

That said, I am [mostly] in entire agreement with your post. I did a study awhile back, where it was clear that the general chances of a given player winning a major dropped off rather steeply past age 35. In contrast with the two gentlemen I mentioned above, Arnold Palmer won his last major at 34. But I am not about to count out a person who is probably the most gifted golfer ever; he’s managed to reinvent his swing several times and come back just fine once he’s worked out the kinks.

24

Vijay Singh won all three of his after age 35. Angel Cabrera’s won two after 37. Padraig Harrington’s won three after 35. I don’t think, with the increases in nutrition and fitness, that this is as big an issue as it was in the days where the golfers would booze it up every night after playing.

Gary Player, the first real fitness nut on tour, won four majors after age 37.

25

That’s not a nitpick- if you’re right, that’s a major flaw in Posnanski’s argument.
(I quoted him, without researching whether his numbers were correct.)

26

I just think the numbers reveal problems. He was not getting up and down. He was not saving with the putter. He was not pulling off shots that only he could. I never saw a tournament where Tiger looked like he was beaten before. he was not dangerous.
On the other golf glove, I would not be surprised if he turned it around and won a bunch of tournaments and majors.

27

Well, Hogan and Snead did this more than half a century ago, before we had a strong international contigent, before the popularity of the sport really took off and became affordable for many, before the deep fields we now see on the Tour. The exceptions (along with Jack) which prove the rule.

28

Maybe, but as also noted, Gary Player had four majors after 37. I maintain that the fact that no modern player has had 5 after 35 is nothing more than a minor statistical anomoly, under the circumstances.

29

I firmly expect him to regain most of his prior form within this season.
Of course, I certainly am enjoying golf more with him not dominating - but I have no hope that it will last. Was sweet to see him in the final group on Sunday, with the network trying to figure out how to justify giving him airtime as he hacked his way around the course! :stuck_out_tongue:
Even if he does not regain his past form, he has a substantial cushion between where he used to be and where everyone else is.
No question he gets 5 more majors.
I’d happily wager that he averages 1 major per year for the next 5 seasons in which he competes in all 4 majors.

30

IMHO, Tiger Woods is still recuperating from major surgery and his competing as well as he is in these events with his current skill set is remarkable; maybe it takes him all year to rediscover his game. It’s a bit premature to have this conversation at this time - I wouldn’t entertain the thought for another year or more.

31

And Jack actually won 6, if anybody’s still counting.

32

Jack was not real big on fitness. That gives Tiger a boost for the future. If his knees stay strong ,he can compete for a long time.

33

After 35? Or after he turned 35? I believe in his case, that’s an important distinction. :stuck_out_tongue:

34

The other factor in play is that Tiger has been playing a very long time under a very intense spotlight. Very few players in any sport can maintain the degree of domination he had for any substantial length of time with all of the demands that are bearing down on them. The most comparable dominant athlete to me would be Michael Jordan, and even MJ had his baseball hiatus.

I don’t think Tiger will be the force he once was, he has physically, mentally, and emotionally been through the wringer through a good portion of his life. That being said, he will probably still be a top 3 golfer for the next 5-7 years, and will win at least 5 more majors.

35

After 33, not 35, as per the conditions outlined in post #21.

36

The reason I started this thread was because several people started similar ones in the past. At those times ,I thought it was way too early. He was not showing chinks in his game. But this time there is some question. He is dropping in all facets of his game. He is not real long any more. His putting is dropping off. He was always a great scrambler and found ways to win. He was not very scary.
Is he dropping to the pack? I am not sure ,but the next couple tournies he enters will be significant.
As bad as he played ,he was still in the top ten. So he does not to fix everything at once.

37

Did anyone catch Johnny Miller’s comment that Tiger’s biceps may have gotten too big? It’s funny, because prior to Miller’s comment, I mentioned to my friend that his biceps looked bigger than I’d ever seen them. Miller followed it up by saying that none of the great golfers in history had big biceps.

38

Until Tiger, none was black. Miller could have said that about blacks a few years ago. His conversation does not count as proof of anything.
A few years ago golfers did not cross train. We joked about their conditioning . Now a lot of golfers are very fit. His arms went from 15 inches to 15 1/2 ,now he cant play well any more. He has been lifting his whole career.

39

While Johnny Miller isn’t an expert on race relations, I think he knows a thing or two about the golf swing.

His questioning whether bulking up for golf makes sense, makes sense to me, even if that particular argument (“it has never been done before, therefore is bad”) is a very poor one indeed.

40

Miller was a very good golfer for a short time. He knows something about golf. He knows nothing about the impact of weightlifting and the golf swing. Most of the young pros of today are lifting. they are hitting longer than the old days. They are better athletes.
I see no evidence that Tiger has changed his swing .