A bit harsh, but the official gummint forecast for the upcoming hurricane season might belong here. From the National Hurricane Center:
“NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.”
“NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.”
I’m 55% confident in these forecasts, and 100% confident that NOAA will issue at least one revised forecast later on when they realize that the first one was off-target.
That’s not a bad forecast, just an extremely vague one. As it’s bound to be, given the impossibility of forecasting things like that.
Unless you’re saying that the stupidity is just in giving any forecast at all in that situation? They’re probably obligated by political forces to do something, and this is all they can do.
NOAA could just say that with El Niño revving up, that could depress hurricane formation somewhat, but it’s difficult to say to what extent, so for those living in vulnerable areas, make your usual preparations.
Instead, they give a “forecast” that’s essentially a coin flip, covering themselves in all circumstances and winding up with a reputation akin to the Farmer’s Almanac.
Right. .28 is much closer to .25 than to .333
But then again this is the American public.
And just for contrast on one of my feeds I got the same item covered as a positive, that a large majority of veterans do not endorse the ultraright positions.
Oh, yeh, I saw that yesterday blowing up on Twitter, complete with links to the actual documents, including the order to show cause by the “incandescent” federal judge. Woo-eeeee!
Funny, I seem to recall an earlier instance, a few years ago, about a prominent person overstating and lying about the threat due to a hurricane… How did they react to that?
I remain skeptical. Is there substantive evidence of a heritable trait governing what we call intelligence? Albert Einstein’s parents were not particularly remarkable, and JFK’s children/nieces/nephews do not show signs of being inherently talented (any more than the next person). Why would we think stupid is a genetic trait (unless we are NAZIs)?
Of course there is. It’s not a single gene, but an interaction between a number of genes. The degree to which genetics will influence a person’s intelligence will vary, but there is no question that it always does to a degree. Of course there are many other factors involved, and genetics is only a part of it. And funny enough (and counterintuitively), genetics will play more of a factor in an adult’s intelligence than a child’s. (Apparently this is because a child’s brain is still growing and doesn’t reach its full genetic potential until adulthood.)
Wikipedia’s article is well-cited and matches much of the consensus literature on the subject:
There’s no controversy over whether genetics has a factor in intelligence. The degree to which it does and the importance of it is always debated (the classic “nature vs nurture” debate), but there’s no real argument over whether it has any influence at all. There is too much research to contradict that.
Don’t confuse genetic inheritance of intelligence with racial intelligence. There is no scientific basis for a race being more intelligent than another. (Any appearance of such usually ends up being caused by socioeconomic factors, which do influence a person’s intellectual development and can certainly vary between racial groups for a variety of reasons.)
But they don’t learn from it, nor change their minds about any issues of any kind. They’ll find some other populist grifter to follow if they don’t follow the PAB. They are the same people they were before the PAB came along.
From last year - town persecutes an elderly couple with $30,000 of tickets for having two lawn chairs on their front lawn; mayor curses out the son when he complains at a town meeting. Lawsuit ensues and the judge is not pleased
From the judge’s opinion:
The Village of Melrose Park decided that it would be a good idea to issue 62 tickets to an elderly couple for having lawn chairs in their front yard.
Michael Cozzi attended public meetings in Melrose Park, and he
expressed his concerns on social media about the Village harassing his elderly parents. That free expression led to an avalanche of tickets. The Village issued the Cozzis a $500 ticket nearly every business day from December 3, 2020 to March 3, 2021. Christmas Eve was no exception. The tickets would financially cripple the Cozzis, an elderly couple on a fixed
income.
The retaliation stretched beyond the tickets. Michael Cozzi received a handwritten note from a police officer warning him about supposed parking violations. Several parking tickets soon followed.
And that’s not all. The police surveilled the home several times a day. Michael Cozzi received threatening text messages from unknown or restricted phone numbers. Someone broke his car window. And on one occasion, the Mayor of Melrose Park, Ronald Serpico, drove by and verbally threatened Michael Cozzi with violence.
If the reader is thinking that things have, at this point, gone completely off the rails, buckle up, because the ride is not yet over.
I’d sue the crap out of them. And if it was all recorded…
Also, it’s not directly related to the article, but I’m amused after looking at AI-focused posts elsewhere that there’s an ad for Lexis + AI above the ad. “Transform your legal work.”
That’s probably coming, I’d expect. Here is the last paragraph of that article:
It’s easy around these parts to get deeply cynical about law and justice and the federal judiciary. But sometimes there’s a story like this and a direct, scathing opinion like this. A court willing to dispense with the law’s embrace of a contrived, mealy-mouthed objectivity and just call out abuse. This may only be the motion to dismiss, but Melrose Park may want to read the room and start talking settlement.
I’d sure like to know what the background is on this. I know these people did not deserve this bizarre harassment, but there had to be some sort of motivating “reason” for it.
The emphasis on the son having curly hair seemed particularly strange to me. It came up repeatedly in the “lovely” phone calls, and the racist, insult laden, crap, the mayor spewed at Mr. Cozzi the younger. The whole thing makes no sense at all.
I really hope they sue, win big, and move. It sounds like the town is run by the mafia.
Racism would be my guess as the primary motivation. As you note, the mayor used the racial slur “shine”, so I’m inferring that all the victims are Black.
HOULTON, Maine (AP) — The driver of vehicle with a sign indicating there was an explosive device on board led Maine State Police on a chase on Interstate 95 to the Canadian border on Monday, officials said.
A trooper fired shots after the motorist attempted to maneuver the truck toward the Canadian port of entry in Woodstock, New Brunswick, and the man surrendered without injury, state police said.