I think it would be good, though, to look at those things that won’t be the same the second time around.
When elected, Donald Trump was hideously unprepared for the task of staffing the executive. In 2016, he had to rely on the Republican establishment to do so, and they saddled him with people like Jeff Sessions, Rex Tillerson, John Kelly, Elaine Chao, Rick Perry - people who weren’t going to just automatically do anything Donald Trump tells them to do.
I suggest that things will be different the next time around, because Donald Trump now knows the importance of getting his yes-men into those positions. And given the 2024 Senate map, if Donald Trump wins election he will almost certainly have a solid Senate majority to work with - possibly even one that could override filibusters with defections from a Democrat or two. It would require a whole lot of Republican Senators suddenly growing spines that they haven’t exhibited any propensity for over the past seven years to keep the executive branch law-abiding rather than Trump-abiding. They had a chance to stick a fork in him in 2021 and came up wanting - they’re not going to dare try it again against a victorious Trump in 2025.
And even if a Republican senate organized some degree of resistance against the worst of Trump’s appointments, I would contemplate the likelihood of him “firing his way” through one Acting Secretary after another until he gets someone he wants in the key position. He might have to go through a lot of Jeffrey Rosens to get to the Jeffrey Clark he wants, but I don’t think he really cares about the collateral damage he would be doing to the executive departments.
Would the judiciary stand up to him? I think that in many cases it would; but, again, a Donald Trump win probably means the House stays (or becomes more) Republican, which means that the number of judges on any federal court is up for revision. Kacsmaryk and Cannon get promotions to the Courts of Appeals, plenty of other judges competing to see who can be the Trumpiest move up, and hey - there are six more appeals courts than there are Supreme Court justices, what if we expanded the Supreme Court to conform to the historical practice of one justice per appeals court, no assassinations needed?
And if Congress (somehow, for some reason) defies the president, what then? A “Stop the (Deep) State” rally on the Ellipse, and another Capitol siege? Congress has shown it won’t act against Trump when he did it before. Will he take another bite at the apple if offered? Will the Freedom Caucus convene a rump House of Representatives to do the President’s wishes after the bulk of the congresscritters have been chased away?
Donald Trump had four years for practice, and he made some rookie mistakes early on that made it hard for him to recover later. I’m afraid he won’t make them this time around, and we dismiss that possibility at our peril.
Amen to that.
ETA: Sorry to those who want this somewhere else. I got a little wound up. Atamasama, happy to discuss more in a different venue of your choice.