My thoughts:
Portugal - The back line played like U-12s today. Totally unforgivable at this level. They also suffered from piss-poor finishing and poor attack planning–my students and I were watching the first half at lunch and kept saying, “When are they going to start making runs? How do they expect to score?” Reece Davis was right: they showed up for kickoff 30 minutes late. You can’t do that in the EURO quarterfinals, people! As for Ricardo, he was a liability in this game. Shoddy play all around in the defending half for the attack-minded Iberians, who shouldn’t have expected to beat Germany without playing well in their own third of the field. Ronaldo even joined the party, disqualifying himself from the “best player in the world” race by making a horrific defensive mistake.
Germany - Metzelder and Mertesacker are simply too slow to stop first-tier forwards from scoring. They got burned badly all game long. The German midfield needs to push up on attackers to take the pressure off their central defense and Lehmann, who, to his credit, is as cool under pressure as anyone. (Germany-Argentina in the 2006 World Cup is my cite.) On the other hand, their counterattack is strong, and few midfields can hammer the net and dominate the middle of the pitch like Germany’s. The team’s defensive play was largely devoid of the embarrassing positioning meltdowns that plagued the Portuguese. However, they haven’t demonstrated the ability to penetrate really good defenses, IMO. I don’t consider them a favorite at this point, although I wouldn’t be too surprised if they went and proved me wrong.
Croatia - I agree that they’re much easier to root for than the Turks. In a well-refereed game, Turkey doesn’t stand a chance. But how many of those are there? Nevertheless, Croatia can get up and score without being down by two goals, and the green and white have got to run out of luck at some point. I expect the Croatian attack to overwhelm the Turkish backup goalie. I could be biased, though–I really like watching Croatia, and I desperately want to see a Croatia-Germany rematch!
Netherlands - The best team in the tournament, IMO. The psychological advantage of getting up by three goals more than makes up for any defensive weakness they may have, which is overstated. And if you ask me, their end-to-end goal against Italy (Von Bronckhorst-someone else-Von Bronckhorst-Kuyt-Sneijder) is an excellent contender for Best Goal Ever–or, at the very least, a strong argument for direct football. They know how to one-touch with the best of them, and I can’t see anyone, least of all Russia, getting over the humiliation of suffering a torrent of goals. (Remember how they played against the David Villa Show?) Giving Russia a royal pounding will only strengthen their resolve. They’ve already bought the key to the back of the Italian net, and I think they could outdo Spain in a high-flying game-of-a-lifetime, so I’m looking for them to make it into the final and maybe even win it.
Spain - As a Hispanophile, a great hater of Italian football and a lover of the Spanish attacking style, I hate to say this, so I’ll whisper it:
Spain benefited from its group draw and they haven’t shown the ability to beat a really good team when it counts on the world stage.
Wait! Put down your guns! Spain is historically bad against Italy and worse in quarterfinals. If the Italian side that should’ve beaten Romania 2-1 (except for a bad offside call) shows up, the David Villa Show could be in for a nightmare. On the other hand, if anything outside of the relentless Dutch attack can get past Gigi Buffon, it’s good old-fashioned Spanish ingenuity. This one should be a cracking game. I’d give it to Italy, but I hope they prove me wrong.
In much briefer format, here are my picks, with winners in bold:
Quarters
Croatia vs. Turkey
Netherlands vs. Russia
Spain vs. Italy
Semis
Croatia vs. Germany
Netherlands vs. Italy
Final
Netherlands vs. Croatia