I would bet more than two cents that any one of Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Warner, Webb, heck even McCain or Clinton have a better chance at the VP slot than Edwards.
He is not cut out to be a judge. His talent lies in persuading juries not analyzing tedious details of the law.
Hillary’s high negatives are not primarily the result of misogyny. Do you know her policies?
Yes, that is one way he got things done here. Instead of voting for legislation which was technically flawed but had a good idea, he voted present. I have no problem with that.
The Gender Gap - as of 8:26am all the delegates have not been tallied, so we will see who actually comes out with more of an edge. It appears they are in a dog race till the bitter end. I’ll be interested to see what the final delegate count is, but Obama won more states, but Clinton appears to have the delegates.
If this teaches us anything it’s that the democratic nod is going to be a horse race and will be won by a nose. No one can count Clinton or Obama out - they are showing through raw numbers that they BOTH have a fan base.
What this shows the country is that Clinton does not have this thing in the bag by a long shot, and Obama is a HUGE forse ot be reckoned with.
My state CT came up with the win for Obama, and if CT is truly what the pundits call a Bellwether - Obama has a very good chance to cinch Clinton out in the marathon…maybe not in the sprint.
Thanks Shayna - I didn’t get a very good night’s sleep last night. 
Well, Damuri, if I lose the bet, I was wise not to put too much on it!
Philosophr, I too live in a “bellwether” state- MO. Yesterday was awful, and I’m still recovering. Voters can be SO F^%%*&^%$^ing stupid! I’m not in the mood to look at the results just yet- I’m TIRED- but I got the ground level impression that Obama was taking it. Couldn’t speak for the Republicans, as I worked in a heavliy Democratic precinct.
May report later when I see the actual numbers.
I need to see how Obama’s national polling moves before I could really say who will win this thing. The tide has definitely turned in Obama’s favor, but it could turn back now that Clinton has had some solid wins in NY, NJ, CA, and MA. Obama probably did better than any reasonable expectation, but I heard some unreasonable expectations and if his supporters start getting disheartened, it’s over.
However, if Obama continues to gain supporters and cash as he has been, he can take it. The rest of the month looks very good for him, and if he can skip ahead to March and outspend Clinton in OH and TX, he can cut her legs off.
So, Philosphr, get your ass on a bus to Ohio!
Man, really don’t know how this will turn out.
Personally, I’m a big Obama fan. But I really question whether our country is ready to elect a black or a woman president. And I see McCain as the Repub who is most likely to appeal to a broad spectrum in the middle, whose desire for a white male prsident is strong.
Not only have they given MO to Obama (though they split the delegates equally), NM has turned in Obama’s favor overnight, as well.
Last night’s state tally: Obama, 14 – Clinton, 8
And he won the states that prove he’d be a force to be reckoned with in the General Election – the “red” states, whereas Hillary won the states she was expected to win – the coasts.
Not only that, he has the momentum and the money. He raised $32 million in January alone, to her $13.5. He’s tapping into hundreds of thousands of individual donors who are accumulating vast sums towards his campaign. Her donors are all big money people and they’re all max-ed out now.
Everything about this past month and last night’s results bodes very, very well for the Obama campaign!
I’m so glad that I got out to vote for Obama yesterday! I knew Missouri was likely be very close.
I think Obama has a real chance. I would also be okay, even happy, with Hillary as president, but I don’t think she can win against McCain. Obama can win against McCain, but I think it could be uncomfortably close, and we might all be up late in November waiting for the final results.
Of course, Obama might win in a landslide if he gets the nomination, but I’ve gotten more cynical about American politics in the last few years.
It is a sheer pleasure to meditate on a decision between two good candidates.
Anecdotally, most people I speak to feel the same way, even here in heavily Obamified Illinois- they like Hillary fine, but feel that Obama could build consensus better. Or they think Hillary’s record speaks louder, but they would trust Obama only slightly less. Et-cetera.
Normally a drawn out campaign would bode poorly for party consensus but in this case I don’t think it’s going to be a problem. They will fight it out because when they look at the turnout numbers they have to think that they’re running for president right now- and they’ll keep it relatively upbeat because they don’t want to turn off their opponent’s rabid support.
Here we go.
I don’t know at this point. If it was a sure thing for Obama, the race wouldn’t be as close as it is. Hillary has fans in the party.
Not getting my hopes up because I don’t wanna be disappointed.
Hillary’s win in CA really helped her.
Obama will come back strong in the next few weeks, but Hillary looks strong in Texas and Ohio and if she wins those it’s all but done. There are also the super delegates which favor her. And then there’s her efforts to seat the FL and MI delegates.
There are a ton of factors helping the Democrats this fall, but a Clinton nomination will sink them I fear. She has huge negatives, she doesn’t appeal to moderates and she can do what McCain can’t - she can motivate conservatives to get out and vote. Obama has a much, much better chance in the general election and Democrats had better take a long look at that before they make Clinton the nominee.
I’m not so sure about that. I think the superdelegates are far more likely to vote for the good of the party, as opposed to who they personally like best, than primary voters, and that’s not necessarily a vote for Clinton. Clinton has the lead right now, but that’s just because a bunch of them signed on with her when she was “inevitable”, but they aren’t bound to stay with her.
If we approach the convention, and there’s a clear frontrunner who still can’t quite get over the top with pledged delegates, they’ll give him or her the final push to avoid a brokered convention. If not, then arguments like “Clinton will energize the right wing base” and “Obama will put some red states like GA and SC into play” could get some traction there.
Ditto that.
If I were one of the fabled cigar-chomping back-room decision-makers (and it comes to that), I’d be looking at state-by-state maps. “OK, those Alabama conservative voters will come out in droves to vote against Clinton, would stay home in droves if it were Obama, but the Dem candidate isn’t taking Alabama either way… hmm, Missouri could tip though…”
The issue is not whether lots of conservative voters would be energized to vote against Clinton but whether their doing so would take states out of the likely-blue pile and move them to the likely-red pile. And whether or not doing so would put the outcome of the election at risk. If Clinton is less likely to carry the general election based on those evaluations, tell the superdelegates to think Obama thoughts.
The other big issue is organizational pragmatism. If Clinton can fend off the now-formidable Obama and come into the Dem convention with a solid lead, that may indicate that she’s got the strategic skills to also handle the Republican opponent in the general. I’d be cautious about undercutting that via the superdels if she’s pulled out in front among the committed dels by more than a casual handful.
I think Hillary has shot her bolt. Her best states are behind her, and she still (apparently) trails in delegates won (excluding superdelegates).
Looking at the remaining states, I feel pretty good about Obama’s chances. And more particularly, looking at the states voting between now and March 4 (when Texas and Ohio vote), I can see a chance for Obama to build some real momentum going into that day. Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, Virginia, Maryland, D.C., Wisconsin and Hawaii. Based on the Super Tuesday results, those all look promising to this Obama supporter.
It sure doesn’t seem like people like Obama less as they get to know more about him. If national polls are to be taken for trends’ sake only, there’s not much I would shake up for the Obama campaign nationally. In fact, it may favor him to come out of Tuesday with a bit of “Little Engine that Could” remaining on him. Keep on doin’ what you’re doin’.
Hillary needs to clamp down on the charisma factor, which is why the four debates. The more time he spends on the stump and out of arms reach of Hillary, the better off he is. In debates his tenor wavers and he overexplains. She is a very good debater. Should Obama gain some ground there though, this could backfire.
These new debates, though seeming overkill to me as a politico junkie, will likely be watched by lots of people who may not have paid attention up 'til now, with the national news taking note of a real race between the Democrats.
A good bit from The New Republic on Hillary:
It looks like that might be true. She had to loan her campaign 5 million dollars of her own money and some of her staff are now going unpaid. Link
Meanwhile, while she is challenging her supporters to donate 3 million dollars in three days, the Obama campaign received more than that in less than 24 hours after the polls closed yesterday.
A money problem isn’t insurmountable, just look at McCain, but as an Obama supporter this wrench in her gears makes me pretty excited for the future of the primaries.