Pennsylvania Politics.

Great Debates
1

First, a question. Why is Pennsylvania considered to be a Battleground State for the 2004 Presidential Election? I know that Gore won Pennsylvania in 2000, by a thin margin, but it was much thinner in other states, say, Ohio for example. I’ve always written us off as hopelessly Democratic, and moved on.

Also, who do the Conservatives on this board like: Arlen “Magic Bullet” Specter or Toomey? I’m swaying towards Toomey myself. He seems more Conservative. But all of the Big Guns are rallying around Specter.

2

That all depends on what you mean by conservative. If you mean cautious and considerate of tradition then Toomey is no conservative. If you mean “every man for himself and the devil take the hindmost,” if you mean a free lunch tax policy, if you mean support every decision and proposal by a Republican President and attack and deplore every proposal ever made by a Democrat, if you mean march in lock step with the National Heritage Foundation then Toomey is a conservative’s conservative. God forbid that the GOP have any independent thinkers.

Does it seem strange that the President, that %100 rock ribbed and ion bound conservative, is campaigning for old Arlen? If Toomey is the President’s man and all?

3

I got the impression that President Bush was supporting Specter in Pennsylvania because

a) He is the incumbent, and
b) He is the more moderate candidate in the primary.

In today’s polarized political atmosphere, the standard strategy is dash to the extremes to win the primary, then sprint back to center for the general election. If Bush backs the sitting senator who is more moderate, then that senator doesn’t have to dash to extremes to win votes in this primary, and is a better bet in the general election - whereas if Bush backs Toomey and Toomey loses, even if Bush wins, he has one fewer seat in the Senate.

Contrariwise, by lending Specter his support, Bush gets more centrist credit for the general election. Toomey, on the other hand, is a liberal campaign manager’s wet dream: his extreme positions make attack ads targeted toward skittish swing voters amazingly effective. Specter and Bush can dash toward the middle together arm-in-arm, each feeding off the other’s popularity in a fearsome November juggernaut, whereas a sitting President looking for centrist “street cred” is not likely to get much from an alliance with a somewhat-radical unknown quantity like Toomey.

4

[…hijack…]

I just heard about Pat Toomey yesterday. I stopped the car and listened closely to the radio. That was not my old pal Pat Toomey. My Pat played Defensive end for the Cowboys in the early 70s. He moved off north, New York, or somewhere, around 1993 or so, to pursue his writing.

He was a good guy.

[…end of hijack…]

5

Pennsylvania will be a battleground state whenever the candidates from the republicrats and demicans are as much like each other as they are in this and the previous campains. Badically, the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (and to a lesser degree Harrisburgh and Eries) areas will vote Dem no matter what and the rest of the state will vote Rep no matter what. The really pivotal issue in the state is which areas will turn out the largest.

The balancing point comes from a long history of rivalries between various factions throughout the state along economic, cultural, ethnic, geographic, and many, many other lines. Pennsylvania, for the longest part of its history, has been an industrial state and so the unions, now sharp Dem-backers, have a huge impact. Likewise, the state is big into guns and hunting (outside of the two big cities), traditionally allied with the Reps. Strange juxtapositions like these lead to perhaps the only good part of Pennsylvania politics, the ability to elect some pols who can think for themselves and do what they think is right rather than just blindly following party planks (for instance Representative TIm Holden (D) who has to walk a line between the rural hunter folk and the union-sympathizing former mining folk in Schuylkill and Berks counties).

As to the Specter/Toomey question, that is a fun one. I don’t have a dog in the presidential race this year (I think both choices will send us closer to the political equivalent of Hell), but I’m voting especially for the senate race. Specter is a slimey, disgusting malignancy on the commonwealth. I will vote for anyone to get him out of office. I’ll vote communist to get him out. I would even vote Democrat to get rid of him :eek: !!

akennett // registered Republican (but too damned independent to consider himself one), Schuylkill Co, PA.

6

Penna is a battleground state because both of the major presidential campaigns believe they can win our electoral votes. So they will battle here. Thus “battleground”. It’s not hard to see why they believe this. There are five Pennsylvanian officials elected by statewide vote: The governor, lieutenant governor, and auditor general are Democrats and the attorney general and the state treasurer are Republicans. Clearly both parties are competitive in statewide elections.

Being in the Green Party I don’t have much stake in the primary election. I’ll show up at the polls just to vote in favor of the state going into debt to upgrade our sewage infrastructure.

7

Right on! I am a volunteer for Pat Toomey. Bush and Santorum only support Specter so he won’t be a turncoat like Jeffords. I would rather have a democrat senator than Spector, would know where he is coming from. Also, Bush has gained a 5% lead in PA over Kerry! A landslide for Bush is in the works …

8

Santorum! spit

Sorry…that left a bad taste in my mouth…

9

That’s why you should vote for Pat next Tuesday, the 27th …

10

Yeah, right.

Pro-life: Strike One
Supports continued government favoritism toward the BSA despite its homophobic policies: Strike Two
Endorsed by Anne of Green Goebbels: Strike Three

Doesn’t look good for ol’ Pat on getting my vote…

11

  1. Pennsylvania is regarded as a “battleground” state because of its’ frequent shifts in who it supports. For example, they’ve changed the party that controls the Governorship every 8 years since, I believe, 1962, the state legislature is more or less even partisanly, and there’s the aforementioned tendency of elected statewide officials from both parties.

  2. Spector. I do not care for Toomey (whom is too far to the right for my tastes), nor do i care for Hoeffel, the probable Democratic nominee (whom is too far to the left for my tastes).

12

I should have added that a Toomey ad from earlier in the year really busted my buttons. He was calling Specter liberal!

If that doesn’t prove that Toomey is somewhere to the right of Jesse Helms I don’t know what does…

13

Pennsylvania is, more often than not, a swing state. Though it’s gone Democratic for the past three elections, those weren’t all blowouts. In fact, since 1960, Pennsylvania was decided by fewer than 300,000 votes in more than half the elections. Clinton won the state very strongly both times, while Gore won it less strongly. Since 2000, the Pennsylvania electorate hasn’t changed that much; it’s still pretty divided.

Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Erie are Democratic strongholds, which likely won’t change. Suburban Philadelphia tends to vote Democratic, too, as does suburban Pittsburgh. Western Pennsylvania is all part of the old Rust Belt, and Democratic sentiment still runs strong there. Central Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is mostly rural and mostly Republican. Rural and urban/suburban Pennsylvania aren’t likely to switch political allegiances any time soon. Pennsylvania suburbs defy the trend of many suburban areas to vote more strongly Republican. Go seventy miles north of Pittsburgh to Sharon and you’ll still find plenty of Democrats, all along route 60 through Aliquippa and Wexford and New Castle. Philadelphia, the state’s largest city, is a rich vein of Democratic votes, and its suburbs tend Democratic, too.

Pennsylvania has bred odd versions of Democrats and Republicans. Governor Bob Casey (1986-1994) was a very conservative Democrat. Governor Tom Ridge (1994-2001) was a rather moderate Republican. Current Governor Ed Rendell is more of a moderate Democrat. And, of course, Senator Arlen Specter is a moderate Republican—one of the last of the breed, I’m afraid. One has to wonder what the Toomey primary challenge is going to mean for moderate Republicans in the state. If Toomey beats Specter in the primary, it’ll send a message that moderate Republicans can’t win anymore. If Specter beats Toomey but loses in the general election, it’ll send essentially the same message. Only if Specter manages to get reëlected this year will there be any good news for moderate Republicans. Even so, the Clubbing for Growth that Specter’s getting is a harbinger of doom for moderate Republicans everywhere.

Arguably, one could say that Rick Santorum is evidence that conservative Republicans can win state-wide in Pennsylvania. Sure, Santorum has won, but I’d hardly say he’s in a comfortable position. Pennsylvania is such a divided state that hardly anyone is in a comfortable position. Ultraconservative groups like Club for Growth could very well serve to isolate the Republican Party in Pennsylvania by shutting out the moderates—much like the Republican Party did in California. Calling Arlen Specter of all people a liberal is a good first step to appearing out of step.

I’ll be watching what happens on April 27 with great interest. If Toomey knocks Specter out, then Hoeffel’s chances will improve drastically. And the fact that Bush is cozying up to Specter despite their drastically different views is understandable. Loyal Specter voters are more likely to feel good about voting for the Republican candidate for president. Knock Specter out and Bush’s work in Pennsylvania gets that much harder. You know those strange bedfellows you always hear about? This time, they’re Bush and Specter.

Yrs,

Chance the Gardener, proud native of Mercer County, Pennsylvania

14

Yeah, no kidding. I am looking forward to voting out Santorum when his term is up. He is a God crazy homophobe.

But at least he has the courtesy to respond to phone calls to his office about proposed legislation. I called my House Rep (Fattah) and both Santorum and Spector about re-instating the draft and only Santorum responded (he is against, which suprised me).

I am a Democrat, but for what it is worth, I am supporting Spector in the General Election (if he makes it that far). But I also voted for Sam Katz, whatever that means.

15

Why would Santorum’s (a) quick response and (b) lack of support of a draft surprise you?

I’m just curious. I used to be an intern for Rick Santorum, back when he was a congressman.

16

He will. As a Jew living in Philladelphia, I can assure you that Spector has the Jewish vote. This is a major reason why he’s won previous elections. Spector is seen as very proIsrael. He’s also rather liberal, which gets democrats like you and me to vote for him in the general elections.

17

Most likely, (a) the stereotype of “Congress is unresponsive to the public”, and (b) the idea that conservatives would support a draft, while liberals would oppose one.

Another possible reason that the White House and Santorum would support Spector: Since the election of John Heinz in 1976, with the exception of the three years that Harris Wolford served in the Senate, one Senator has always come for the Philadelphia area, and the other Senator from the Pittsburgh area.

Spector is from Philadelphia. Toomey is from the Allentown area. If he gets the nomination, there is the risk that all the Philadelphia-area Reps that voted for Rendell in 2002 would desert the ticket again for Montgomery County-based Hoeffel.

18

I just want to say how surprised I was of knowledgeable Pennsylvania Outsiders that are participating in this thread. I truly expected it to sink quickly.