Pennsylvania Primary - Let's get this party started!

Great Debates
101

[QUOTE=Hippy Hollow]
Slight problem here. Every Clinton rally I’ve heard, including the one tonight, the refrain is “Yes We Will.”
[/QUOTE]

Huh, to be honest now I can’t remember if I infact heard that right (what, you expect me to watch this stuff sober?), but that was the general tone I got from each speech. Her’s was all about her, while Obama’s just had a more universal tone.
I know, IMHO it’s pretty MP too. Pit me if you must.
As an Obama supporter I do believe this loss can just be brushed off in regards to November. Murtha and Sestak are both prominent, Military experienced, anti-Iraq War Dems. As long as they support Obama in the general, that is a big block of voters that will look his way. As well, having the support of the popular and charismatic Governor and Mayor of Philly certainly didn’t hurt Hillary either.

I just think that strong, local, political support was the real difference maker tonight; which means Obama should have no worries there in Nov.

I guess.
‘I could go for some peanutbutter cups about now, though. You know what thats about.
Hellooo Washington!’

102

[QUOTE=Mr. Moto]
You really don’t understand people very much, do you?

My parents are in their sixties - and my dad has fairly portable skills. In fact he works right now in Kentucky - they brought him in to unfuck some problems at a steel mill. This is just a temp job for him, though, and he’s already planning his move back to Clairton, Pa.

Clairton.

Most people haven’t heard of Clairton at all, and the ones who have remember it as the setting of The Deer Hunter. Since that film the town lost most of its population and business base - it became even more depressing. Crime skyrocketed, the schools there have been in rather terminal decline since around 1968.

My folks moved back there in 1992. Mom is a native, Dad grew up nearby. I lived there until I was four, and then my folks moved to Washington County so my brothers and I could attend decent schools. Once we all graduated, my parents promptly moved back to Clairton. They sure were swimming against the tide by doing so.

My mom can see the house she grew up in from her dining room window. One block over live two of her sisters and their families. Next door to them lived my grandfather until he died three years ago - his widow still lives there.

So my folks, who really could live anywhere in the country, choose to live in a decaying mill town on the Monongahela River - and to them this was the only logical choice. Never mind that the Clairton my mom grew up in is long gone, it is still her town, and my dad’s. They will be buried there.

I do not know for certain who my folks voted for (I’m guessing they’ll split again - my mom is more conservative than my dad is.) I don’t think Obama is on their short list.
[/QUOTE]

You do realize you proved his point???
Your dad is in Kentucky to work. When he stops working, he goes back to Clairton.
Obviously, if Clairton is economically inert, then the economically mobile - the young - will leave. Places like Clairton will, just like economically inert towns in Mexico or Peru or any other dead place you wish to name - have old people, young folks too young to make the move yet, and a paucity of those in their true working years, because they will be elsewhere, working.
My dad will be buried in the economically inert town he moved from 60 years ago. That doesn’t make it any less of a dead place. Figuratively speaking, as it were.

103

Well, to an extent. I don’t currently live in Pennsylvania.

But my folks aren’t leaving because they are too poor to go - though this does apply to some people. They have a little bit of money and job skills. And they aren’t going anywhere.

When my dad finally retires for good, he’ll do so in Clairton.

There are a lot of younger people in PA too who are underemployed or poorly paid. moving would improve their prospects in some cases - except that many of them cannot envision living anywhere else.

I know this happens everywhere, but it seems to affect the folks back home quite a lot more than other places I have lived.

104

[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
<snip> The debacle with the first two states losing their right to vote<snip>
[/QUOTE]

Since the rest of this post has already been parsed, I’ll just point out that you misspelled forfeited.

105

Latest figures are showing her lead in the popular vote is under 200,000, and her percentage is a tad under 9%.

106

[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy]
Latest figures are showing her lead in the popular vote is under 200,000, and her percentage is a tad under 9%.
[/QUOTE]

I hope you’re right, but do you have a link? Alls I’m seeing is a 10-spoint spread with 99% reporting.

I hope those sentences made sense; I’m drunk. :slight_smile:

107

The whole “Pittsburgh/Philadelphia/Alabama in the middle” joke is one I wish were true. In Alabama Obama won by 56%/42%. What do you think the reason is for her support in Pennsylvania?

108

Old white women. So the pundits say.

ETA:

Also, dear pundits, please stop saying that Obama can’t “close the deal” without acknowledging the exact same thing about Hillary.

109

[QUOTE=Mr. Moto]
You really don’t understand people very much, do you? My parents are in their sixties - and my dad has fairly portable skills. In fact he works right now in Kentucky - they brought him in to unfuck some problems at a steel mill. This is just a temp job for him, though, and he’s already planning his move back to Clairton, Pa.
[/quote]
That’s a sweet, sweet story about your sainted parents, Moto.

How sentimental.

What it says about Pennsylvania’s demographics is beyond me. Do you think your parents are representative of a larger trend? Are more people over 50 moving into small towns in PA than moving out? Or are there a lot of people in small towns in PA who’d like to retire to warmer climes, like so many others from the Rust Belt have already, but who are trapped in houses that they can’t sell for much because the people who’ve already died or moved out have left plenty of houses behind that already can’t sell?

The singular of ‘anecdote’ is definitely not data. When come back, bring data.

110

A net gain of ten, count 'em, ten delegates for the Senator from New York! What a completely relevant result in a state where both candidates are likely to beat John McCain.

Next: Guam!

111

As of 5am, CNN reports:

Clinton 1,258,245
Obama 1,042,297

That’s 54.7 - 45.3%.

Other than being African-American, by far the best predictor of who one will vote for, of these two, has been age. And PA, with the highest old-to-young ratio of any sizable state, is about as favorable turf for Hillary as there is.

And she could only win PA by 9.4%.

Clinton won last night. She gets to limp along to Indiana and NC. But she’s blown her last, best chance to gain ground.

112

Big winner last night: the Democratic Party.

2.3 million people voted in the Democratic primary yesterday. That’s nearly 80% as many votes as Kerry got in PA in 2004. And this was in a primary, a closed primary.

Very impressive.

113

[QUOTE=Orbifold]
A net gain of ten, count 'em, ten delegates for the Senator from New York!
[/QUOTE]
I should point out that that’s not a final or complete tally. They’re showing Clinton by 75-65 but PA has 158 pledged delegates.

The 55 statewide delegates will be divided 30-25. The other 103 are apportioned by congressional district, and I’m gonna let other, more energetic people do that math.

114

This guy is keeping what looks to be a good count. And if one turns that glitch in the 6th into a 3-3 split, we get 84-74, Hillary.

I missed by 2.6% on the popular vote, but I may have nailed the delegate count.

115

[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
As of 5am, CNN reports:

Clinton 1,258,245
Obama 1,042,297

That’s 54.7 - 45.3%.

Other than being African-American, by far the best predictor of who one will vote for, of these two, has been age. And PA, with the highest old-to-young ratio of any sizable state, is about as favorable turf for Hillary as there is.

And she could only win PA by 9.4%.

Clinton won last night. She gets to limp along to Indiana and NC. But she’s blown her last, best chance to gain ground.
[/QUOTE]

I agree 100%. She needed a decisive 20-30% win - didn’t happen. So like what was predicted here earlier she’ll get a little wind in her sails today but as for surging ahead of Barack…didn’t happen. Barack’s next predicted wins will make-up any ground he lost in PA.

116

Most of that wind will come from her mouth. And a few gusts from Bill.

117

OK, where’s her next big win? As far as I can tell, she’s out of home states. Obama will make up in NC what he lost in PA. Going into last night, my unofficial spreadsheet showed that Hillary needed over 64% of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama in that category. With some of the PA delegates allocated, she now needs over 67% of the remaining pledged delegates. Her climb is now steeper. She gained 200,000 in popular vote, surely the next big pair, IN and NC, will wipe out much if not most of that gain. She still trails in the national polls. She still provides a weaker ticket for Dems to run under. I don’t see over 2/3 of the remaining superdelegates wanting to lose the black vote just to nominate her.

118

[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
OK, where’s her next big win? As far as I can tell, she’s out of home states. Obama will make up in NC what he lost in PA. Going into last night, my unofficial spreadsheet showed that Hillary needed over 64% of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama in that category. With some of the PA delegates allocated, she now needs over 67% of the remaining pledged delegates. Her climb is now steeper. She gained 200,000 in popular vote, surely the next big pair, IN and NC, will wipe out much if not most of that gain. She still trails in the national polls. She still provides a weaker ticket for Dems to run under. I don’t see over 2/3 of the remaining superdelegates wanting to lose the black vote just to nominate her.
[/QUOTE]

Exactly, like has been said many times - she got a slight gust of wind in her sails. But Obama’s end game strategy he already played in February and March…Clinton effed up back then saying those little states were inconsequential, those mid-atlantic states didn’t mean much…that was her biggest blunder and will ultimately cost her the nomination. Obama’s national appeal is still way ahead of Clinton’s and again, when he is the nominee, only a percentage of the Clinton voters need to vote for him…but there is a large percentage that would hate another republican in the office more than a black man. And Barack has a likability factor and trustworthy factor that will send him over the top in November.

119

[QUOTE=Airman Doors, USAF]
What? The overall result isn’t a surprise. In fact, it was anticipated. The only thing that was ever in doubt was the margin, which was large after the last round of primaries and narrowed over time to a percentage representing a mere handful of delegates. For Obama, this is a huge victory.
[/QUOTE]

Let the spinning begin!

120

Yeah, like spinning that an expected, not-terribly-consequential-to-the-delegate-count victory is going to propel Hillary into the White House and everybody’s going to throw roses at her inevitable victory parade!