Picking 65: 2006 NCAA Tournament Discussion

[brianjedi]

@Omniscient

Keep suckin’ down the Kool-Aid my friend.

There are 3 teams you never count out: the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, the Fighting Irish during football season and Big Blue in the month of March.

I’m not saying we’re gonna go up by 40 on LSU, Tennessee or Florida, but all of a sudden we’re back.

[Omniscient]

@brianjedi

There are 3 teams you never count out: the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, the Fighting Irish during football season and Big Blue in the month of March.

I’m not saying we’re gonna go up by 40 on LSU, Tennessee or Florida, but all of a sudden we’re back.

I might have agreed with you if it had said “Atlanta Braves in the NL East, the Fighting Irish during football season and Rick Pitino in the month of March”

[brianjedi]

@Omniscient

I might have agreed with you if it had said “Atlanta Braves in the NL East, the Fighting Irish during football season and Rick Pitino in the month of March”

Who?

[HeelB4Zod]

@MilTan

Well, I’m going to give the alternate ACC perspective, as I’m an NC State fan. I know that it’s pretty typical for us forgotten teams in the ACC (read: not Duke or UNC) to whine about not getting any respect, but I don’t think that you guys are giving us enough respect.

Look at it this way: If UNC were 10-3 in conference, with a 21-5 record (with blowout wins over George Washington – their only loss – and over BC at BC ), plus with 4 of the losses being away, two by 3 points and one to Duke, wouldn’t you be talking about them as sleepers to get to the Elite Eight?

[As an aside, my Carolina-hating compels me to point out the unlikelihood of Tyler Hansbrough getting to shoot more free throws than entire teams (see GT game, NC State game) in the NCAA tournament. Good luck scoring 40 points under those circumstances]

Also, don’t underestimate the effect of our offense. We play the same sort of Princeton derived motion offense that West Virginia and Georgetown are getting a lot of press for running. ACC teams see us a lot, but tourney teams? Good luck defending against it. Also, I suspect that we’re on track to getting a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA (as the #2 team in the ACC at the moment), which means our first two games may be in Greensboro, which is a huge advantage.

In general, I can’t see the ACC getting fewer than 5 teams, although 6 will be a stretch. Duke, UNC, State and BC are locks. MD, VA or FSU have a shot if they play well down the stretch and win one or two in the ACC tourney.

As for the other conferences, the one that I want to bring up is the MVC. What the hell is going on there? They’ve got five, yes five, teams in contention for at-large bids going by their RPIs: UNI (17), Wichita State (21), Southern Illinois (24), Missouri State (25) and Creighton (29). How is that possible?

UNC 95, State 71 in Raleigh.

I’m tellin’ ya, we’re pretty damn good, and only gonna get better.

[HeelB4Zod]

@Omniscient

Duke and a bunch of nobodies. NC State and UNC will both get a win in the tournament but neither are a threat to anyone good. I like NC State’s starting 5 over UNC’s but Hansbrough is one of those guys who could dominate a game. Neither would shock me in the Sweet 16, but if both made it I’d be floored. If neither made it out of the first weekend I wouldn’t be surprised.

Keep on underestimating the Heels. I’m begging you.

[Omniscient]

@HeelB4Zod

UNC 95, State 71 in Raleigh.

I’m tellin’ ya, we’re pretty damn good, and only gonna get better.

Doing it against an ACC team not named Duke is hardly worthy of chest-thumping.

[HeelB4Zod]

@Omniscient

Doing it against an ACC team not named Duke is hardly worthy of chest-thumping.

That’s fine.

As I said, just keep on underestimating the Heels. That’s what they’re counting on.

[Ins_Outs_What-have-yous]

@Omniscient

Originally Posted by ArchitectChore
*It is possible to be an Illinois and Big Ten fan without being delusional about other conferences. It would not surprise me to see two Big East teams and one ACC team (yeah…Duke) in the final four. As a conference, the Big Ten (well…Big 11 nowadays) IMO clearly had the most success in last years Big Dance, but last year is over.

Yet, the Big East is a patty-cake, pussified conference? wtf?*

*I think you’re misunderstanding the point I was making. I agree that the Big East is a very good conference and the ACC has Duke and a few other quality teams. I was not calling them “patty-cake” to imply that they aren’t good tams, I was disagreeing with Kiros’ assessment that they are tough, physical conferences. These two conferences live and die on touch fouls and don’t consistently play tight defense.

Ok…so you like to use hyperbole. It’s cool.*

@Omniscient

Rick Pitino in the month of March

Nope…not this year. Pitino will be back, though.

@brianjedi

Kentucky will get in

I bleed blue as much as you do, but I’m also realistic. Kentucky essentially cannot lose these last 3 games and get in. With 2 or 3 more wins to finish regular season: UK is in. With one more win: UK is on the bubble and better make an SEC tourney run or be at the mercy of the selection committee. The players overall have been acting more like a team lately and several have a hot hand with the 3-point shot, so my optimism is growing. For the past several years, UK kicked ass in the regular season, peaked too early, and then ran out of gas in the NCAA tournament. This year, they don’t have as much to lose being a potential 7, 8, or 9 seed. Hopefully, this situation works to UK’s advantage.

HeelB4Zod, you will not hear me underestimate the Heels. On a good night, UNC can beat any NCAA team.

[Omniscient]

@ArchitectChore

HeelB4Zod, you will not hear me underestimate the Heels. On a good night, UNC can beat any NCAA team.

I agree. But they won’t be winning 6 in a row.

[HeelB4Zod]

@Omniscient

I agree. But they won’t be winning 6 in a row.

Probably not. This is our down year, anyway - but what an incredible “down year” it’s been. I wouldn’t mind a rematch with your Illini to avenge the Dean Dome defeat in early December; those two teams have developed quite the intersectional rivalry over the past four years, no?

Actually, I keep having visions of a KU-UNC 4-5 matchup in the second round - I’m sure the NCAA wouldn’t mind the “Roy vs. KU” storyline.

BTW, just read that GW’s Mensah-Bonsu is out for the regular season with torn cartilege in his knee, although he might be able to play in the tourney.

[MilTan]

@HeelB4Zod

UNC 95, State 71 in Raleigh.

I’m tellin’ ya, we’re pretty damn good, and only gonna get better.

What’re you talking about? We haven’t played Carolina recently! Not at all!

[HeelB4Zod]

@MilTan

What’re you talking about? We haven’t played Carolina recently! Not at all!

I feel your pain MilTan. Honestly, I do. I remember it wasn’t so long ago that we were 8-20 and you guys were kicking our asses. I was at the 2002 game at the Dean Dome when State smacked us around 77-59, and half the damn crowd was wearing red. Sickening. The worm always turns.

Anyway, I just don’t understand Sendek’s teams. Aside from last year’s big win over UConn in the second round, Herb’s teams just don’t bring “it” (for lack of a better word) in big games. The Wolfpack are quite good and win regularly when the spotlight isn’t on, as illustrated by their 21-6 record.

[MilTan]

@HeelB4Zod

Anyway, I just don’t understand Sendek’s teams. Aside from last year’s big win over UConn in the second round, Herb’s teams just don’t bring “it” (for lack of a better word) in big games. The Wolfpack are quite good and win regularly when the spotlight isn’t on, as illustrated by their 21-6 record.

I agree. Unlike a very vocal subset of State fans, I actually like Herb, and support him as coach. But it definitely gets frustrating sometimes losing these games. Other than the UConn game, the only other truly “big” win we’ve had recently (other than various wins to get us off the bubble in years past) was 2 years ago when we beat Duke when they were #1.

[HeelB4Zod]

@MilTan

I agree. Unlike a very vocal subset of State fans, I actually like Herb, and support him as coach. But it definitely gets frustrating sometimes losing these games. Other than the UConn game, the only other truly “big” win we’ve had recently (other than various wins to get us off the bubble in years past) was 2 years ago when we beat Duke when they were #1.

I gotta tell you, Miltan, Herb really sucked today. He must have called five timeouts in game-ending situations and came up with empty possessions after all five. Brutal. Herb overcoached by continuously calling those timeouts. State ran the same damn plays out of every timeout and always wound up with a terrible shot.

BC coach Al Skinner ain’t the sharpest tool in the shed, but he knew what was coming. Who didn’t?

[Kiros]

Okay, time for a little more college basketball love. What did we see this weekend?

• Indiana playing itself back in, while Seton Hall continues to play itself out.
• UConn over 'Nova in a game that I still think means little more than what relative position they have among the 1-seeds
• Texas showed us that there’s still only one team that matters in the Big 12, and the other teams still haven’t done much to make it look like more than three teams will get in from the conference.
• The middle-of-the-pack Big East teams continue to beat up on one another
• The ACC continues to look like a four-bid league barring a tourney run, as pretty much all the bubble teams had a loss that was bad in one way or another
• All of the Big Ten teams continue to beat up on one another, with Ohio State in the driver’s seat at the moment
• Cal blew yet another opportunity to show they deserved some love. I would get probably-too-much schadenfreude from a third bad loss leading to a first-round Pac 10 tournament exit and a NIT trip.
• SEC teams continue to exploit each other’s glaring weaknesses, and while they’ll get 5 minimum (and likely 6) teams in, we still don’t know if anyone will decide to step up
• The MVC continues to beat itself up, and keep its RPI respectable in the process. We’ll see if “no standouts” helps or hurts them in two weeks, I think, and not before then.

Tonight, we have Gonzaga in a tie game at the half that shouldn’t be tied (and one would think they’d get to that in short order after Few has a little chat), and we have the UConn women scoring twelve points in the second half to blow a halftime lead on the road at Rutgers. Hmph. Lovely.

Games that could boost (or revive) bubble cases over the next few nights include:

Tuesday

Cincinnati at Seton Hall
Illinois at Minnesota

Wednesday

Marquette at Louisville
Colorado at Kansas
Texas at Texas A&M
Duke at Florida State
Virginia at UNC
Kentucky at Tennessee

Thursday

UCLA at California

Happy Hoops!

[Omniscient]

I’m not sold on the SEC getting 5 teams yet. I can’t fathom why anyone has Alabama getting in, sure they held serve at home against LSU, Florida and Tennessee, but none of those teams are exactly rock solid.

Kentucky has been discussed plenty as well. Unless they win one of their last two games and a couple in the SEC tourney I wouldn’t put them in.

I don’t think Indiana belongs either, but I like their resume better than the those two teams.

If those additional SEC squads get in it’ll probably be at the expense of the A-10, which I think would field better teams.

[Kiros]

The bubble teams are really thin across the board this year. The SEC is hard to think about, because the entire strength of the conference rests on two big wins (Tennessee over Texas and LSU over West Virginia), and then everyone else not doing anything too stupid. Alabama and Kentucky are probably in at this point just because there aren’t any better options (see the Big 12 and Pac 10 bubble teams for more examples of the same).

The problem with the A-10 is that Temple and St. Joseph’s have the strongest schedules and best wins out of conference… but they’re sitting sixth and seventh in conference. If Charlotte can win at GW in the regular season finale, they probably merit some consideration, but right now they’re an even 100 in the RPI and their biggest out of conference win was at Rutgers. St. Louis played an ambitious schedule, came out it with nothing better than Southern Illinois in the wins column, and doesn’t have another shot at GW unless they meet in the A-10 tourney. I think the only way the A-10 gets two teams at this point is if someone knocks off GW.

It all comes back to the weakness of the bubble. The latest bracketology has California moving up to an 8 seed! This! An eight! And it’s hard to really argue about it too much because no one else is coming in and taking it away.

[brianjedi]

And with that win, the Kentucky Wildcats move off the bubble and firmly into the tournament.

“Big Orange.” Pfft. You look like road cones.

Also, allow me to laugh heartily at Duke losing:

[Omniscient]

Damn you Northwestern!!!

[brianjedi]

@Omniscient

Damn you Northwestern!!!

I’m guessing you wanted an Ohio State loss to help the Illini’s chances for an Big Ten title?

Bracketology was updated today and has Illinois at a 2, playing Oral Roberts, while Kentucky is an 11 facing Wisconsin. A Kentucky win (not out of the realm of probability) would have the Wildcats facing either a rematch with the North Carolina Tar Heels or, if the Upset of the Century goes down, the first ever meeting with the Murray State Racers. The Selection Committee is just twisted enough to try and work that scenario out, too.

Should be interesting to see if any of this holds after the upsets tonight, though. Duke, Texas and Tennessee going down may seriously impact the look of the bracket.