I would love to see the Illini as a 2 seed. That Texas loss certainly helps the cause, as does that close call for Gonzaga. It probably won’t matter if we don’t beat MSU in Lansing and hopefully meet OSU in the Conference finals.
If UK does get matched up with Wisconsin, don’t get too confident. Bo Ryan’s guys have been uncharacteristically streaky this year, but I’ve yet to see his team not play great defense in a big game. I think they’ll be a matchup nightmare for UK.
Believe me when I tell you that I have learned not to underestimate this team’s ability to not show up on any given night. That said, I think they may have finally turned a corner with this win, and a defensive matchup doesn’t scare me like it would have last month.
Most of the assistant coaches are gonna get canned at the end of the year anyway, so it doesn’t really matter what the tournament performance looks like.
Illinois could definitely grab a 2 seed, since at this point pretty much everyone after the first four looks exactly the same, and the Illini are among the next six of “exactly the same”. I think Duke/UConn/Villanova are locked into the top three seeds (in some variation of that order depending on what happens before Selection Sunday) barring a truly horrific loss on any of their parts. I think Memphis currently has a clear advantage for the fourth #1, but if they lose a single game before selection Sunday to any of the weak-sauce teams in that league, they’re going to end up complaining on the 2-line. At this moment, I like OSU, Illinois, Gonzaga, and Pitt as the 2’s, in roughly that order; at least two of those four, however, are highly likely to lose at least one more game before the brackets are decided. Tennessee and Texas are also in the proverbial discussion, with UNC poised to enter if they can beat Duke and/or win the ACC tourney. It’s a pretty big drop-off after that, short of LSU or UCLA going on a rampage in their respective conference tourneys.
Meanwhile, I think the most entertaining (if quite unlikely) scenario could come if Seton Hall wins at Pitt and Louisville wins at UConn in their respective conference finales. You’d be left going into the conference tournaments with the Big East having ten teams with better profiles than the fourth-place teams in the Pac 10 and Big 12… and only ~6 of those 10 as locks to get in. Would make for QUITE an exciting first/second round at MSG.
Well, we had a bunch of upsets the last few days. The big ones lead to the question of the day: How will we end up balancing the teams that have one win of any consequence (but over a big name in the early days of March) against the teams that have a bunch of quality wins spread out over the season? Basically, it’s these teams:
Against the bubble teams from the Big East, Big Ten, and SEC:
I tend to think all of the teams in the bottom group (except Syracuse) tend to belong above the three teams in the top group… but those three teams all have the big name upsets at the right time.
Seriously, how do you lose to DePaul by 39 when you’re on the bubble? (Though, it should be noted, DePaul also has wins over likely or possible tournament teams Creighton, UAB, California [who is out at this moment, IMO], and Seton Hall. If they hadn’t dropped four “easy” games against teams with RPI > 90, they’d be in this discussion. But, THIRTY-NINE! ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHT!)
You know, I should be loving that discussion of DePaul’s win over the 'Cuse since I essentially live on it’s campus, but I really don’t care.
You make an interesting argument, one which I mostly agree with. I will say however that of those power conference bubble teams you list, I don’t think the Orange, the Hall, and UK are tournament worthy teams. That’s not to say that they won’t make it, they will due to the weakness of the bubble, but in any other year they’d be out. You can bet I won’t be picking them to get out of the first round on my bracket.
One more debate to throw out there: Who’s the 4th #1 Seed?[sup]1[/sup]
You’ve got Memphis. Gonzaga, Texas, George Washington and Ohio State. Memphis and Texas both took bad losses this week. Memphis, GW and Gonzaga haven’t played a top team since the conference schedules started. Gonzaga looked pretty beatable at home against San Fransisco. GW has only played one team worth a crap all season and they lost to them (and it’s not like NC State is a powerhouse).
My pick? Ohio State. Look at their schedule and their losses. Not a single loss was at home and all three losses were against top Big Ten teams. It’s true that they didn’t play anyone in their non-conference schedule, and that hurts them. Essentially you’re forced to decide which is better, playing a soft nonconference schedule 3 months ago or playing a soft conference schedule over the last 3 months. Going into the tourney, OSU has been more impressive.
Forgot to fill in the footnote before hitting submit.
1 - Presuming that you buy into the argument that Duke, UConn and Villinova are all #1 seeds. Arguments to the contrary are welcome.
I think, right now, it’s Ohio State. This is a little deceptive, though. If OSU wins the Big Ten Tournament, I think they move into that slot for sure; if they lose in the tournament (especially before the final game), then they are likely behind Memphis and possibly Gonzaga (if those two win out). Gonzaga is 9th in the RPI right now, but the teams between them and #5 Memphis (Tennessee, LSU, Pitt) are not serious contenders for 1 seeds IMO unless something weird happens (like Pitt running the table in the Big East tournament and taking out both UConn and 'Nova along the way). There is a pretty big dropoff between Memphis and Gonzaga, though (see: SOS, and wins against top 50 RPI). We’re still talking about the top five and then the rest, like we have been all season - OSU has just replaced Texas in “the top five”.
If I were a Kentucky fan, I’d be a little scared - all of my team’s biggest wins would be over teams that, while talented, have shown quite demonstrably that they can manage to lose against pretty much anyone on any given night. I think the resume makes them a tournament team, but I might well agree with you that they aren’t necessarily “tournament-worthy”
Kiros, the WV win wasn’t actually at West Virginia; it was in Kansas City during the Guardians Classic.
This Kentucky team is one of the strangest teams I can remember. They’re much less than the sum of their parts, at least from a talent standpoint. This is a team that should have won 25 games but instead just couldn’t get on the same page.
Lunardi bumped them to an 8 on the strength of the Tennessee win. I wouldn’t go that high unless they beat Florida on Senior Day at home tomorrow.
Did you guys hear? Purdue is thinking about suiting up Jimmy Chitwood in Columbus tomorrow!
[sub]What? A guy can dream, can’t he.[/sub]
Did anyone see Charlotte choke away that GW game in monumental fashion? That Goldwire kid is going to be getting a Code Red in the dorm tonite.
What was that sound we heard from Cameron Indoor tonight? I think it was the Tar Heels saying “How do you like me now?”
Jammer
I told y’all mothafuckas!!!
Do NOT underestimate the Heels!! I told you!!! DON’T EVER make the mistake of ignoring UNC.
The torch has now been passed. Carolina = new kings. Today, the ACC, tomorrow = the WORLD!!!
FUCK DOOK!!!
TAR HEELS BABY!!!
(OK, I’m kinda drunk).
I’m out of eligibility, and I’m too quick for the Big 10 anyway.
As of this posting, Florida’s up one on Kentucky. Seems like Tubby’s actually letting Joe Crawford attack the basket lately, which in my opinion is the difference between awful Kentucky and all right Kentucky. jedi, I don’t have the game – why didn’t Rondo start?
The final Braacketology is up on the ESPN site and I must say, I pretty much agree with all of it. The changes I’d make are Syracuse being out and Texas A&M being in, I feel like Syracuse’s wins are better and the difference between the Big 12 and Big East is so wide that the Orange deserve to be in. Also I still think that Ohio State deserves the #1 seed over Memphis, but it’s not a huge disparity. That said, OSU played a deceptively soft schedule (weak nonconference and very favorable unbalanced Big Ten schedule…never came to Champaign, GRRRR!) and might be one of the Sweet 16 upset victims. Note that he has George Washington listed as a #4 seed, I agree with it but it’s surprising. It’s almost as if he’s pretending they lost that Charlotte game (which they effectively did). There’s too many SEC teams in the bracket, all their bubble teams made it, but I can’t make a good case for any of the teams he left out over them.
What do you guys think? Obviously this has no impact on the actual bracket and there’s still conference tournaments to play, but if the NCAA comes close to this I’d be hard pressed to argue against it. Traditionally the committee seems to really marginalize the performaces in the tounament unless someone really goes on a shocking run. If a team that’s currently out steals a invite from a bubble team by winning their tourney, hopefully one of those SEC teams will be the ones to suffer.
You guys have gone soft on me, but last night there was a huge game between Syracuse and Cincy that ended in grand fashion. What a shot by McNamara and the half-courter coming the other way nearly went in.
I was thinking both teams are probably in going into the conference tourney, but the ESPN guys have some big doubts, obstensibly saying that unless the Cuse beat UConn both squads are going home.
Anyone see that game? Any thoughts?
Sorry, between the loss to Florida and the SEC tournament starting tomorrow, I haven’t been watching any basketball.
Been too busy with the World Baseball Classic.
Yeah, that’s going great…
I have flaked on college basketball the last few days… combination of not many major games being played, too much work, and everything else you’d expect. With the big tournaments starting, though… well, it’s game time. Also, I LOVE the afternoon action on ESPN, gives that nice warm tournament feeling.
With under two minutes in the first half, Louisville is down 25 to Pitt, so barring a miracle second half, they’re finally completely and totally done. Seton Hall lost today to Rutgers; while not a bad loss, it certainly doesn’t HELP them, though you’d think they’d still be in good shape with a 9-7 Big East record (though the real problem for Seton Hall will be the lackluster close to the season). Ditto Cinci; losing to Syracuse in NYC isn’t anything to be ashamed of, and the overall profile still looks good, but they have to be a lot more nervous now than they’d have been with a win. Syracuse has renewed hopes at the moment (hell of a shot by McNamara - also, you should see the clip of Boeheim standing up for McNamara at the post-game press conference… just go to ESPN.com and watch that game’s video), but they still probably need to pull the upset over UConn tomorrow to feel at all confident.
The next couple of days are the moving days for the bubble teams: the only question is whether they go up or out. Tomorrow, watch the results of:
UConn-Syracuse: see above
FSU-Wake and MD-GTech: The two favorites here are making late bubble runs, but an upset would likely end hope for either… and anything can happen in the ACC tournament
Michigan-Minnesota: Michigan really needs this game to feel safe; the profile should be there either way, but that’s a VERY borderline finish if they lose
UAB-SMU: UAB will be a big favorite, but only won the first matchup by 5
Cal-USC: Cal may well need this win to get in
Most of the other first-round games going on look like “easy” wins for the teams that have bubble hopes, but upsets for teams like Colorado would knock them out for sure while upsets to teams like Kentucky might not change their status, but would definitely increase the nervous quotient.
Will definitely be up at the crack of noon tomorrow to claim a spot on the couch and watch UConn end Gerry’s hopes for good - thank goodness for Thursday being my day off. Will check in if anything big happens!
You keep me posted on the UConn-Cuse game. I’ll be busy with Michigan-Minny and MSU-Purdue. I simply can’t see MD or FSU getting in unless they make the final game, and then I’d be iffy on them.