I’m a Braves fan.
And I’m afraid. It looks as though our role as the New York Knicks of baseball might be coming to an end. The glorious 90s are over.
Ha! The Yankees still have no fielding up the middle. Jeter has no range, Soriano can’t make routine plays, Giambi is a giant walrus, Bernie can’t throw, Posada’s not such a great defensive catcher (not terrible, though).
Their pitching will be ok. Their bullpen will be ok. Their offense will be unreal. They’ll probably make the playoffs, but they’re hardly invincible - the A’s, Angels, Red Sox all have a good shot at knocking the Yanks out in the playoffs if they make it. The Twinkies, White Sox and Mariners have an outside shot of it.
That’s my analysis.
And cmkeller - I predict Mssr. Byrd to be a disappointment in Atlanta so don’t worry about it. Just worry about getting a new owner. 
I have no intelligent analysis to add. But I do have a bad feeling about the Yanks this year. I thought it was a real bad idea to get rid of Tino before last season, and I’m even more sure of it now. Last year, it seemed like they were more into “stunt-casting” than developing a solid team. Giambi? Mondesi? They played well and everything, but the team never seemed to gel. I don’t think they have fixed that problem. Also, their pitching staff is too injury-prone. I hate to say it, but I fear they’re going to crash and burn.
But I am so thrilled that my boyfriend Alfonso Soriano will be on my screen nightly soon.
Some of the local media has been saying that the way Ortiz throws could lead him to an injury. He is young but they speculate that an injury is imminent given his pitching style. Moss is younger and a lefty, but he is wild. We’ll see how this turns out.
Really? I’m still optimistic for this coming year. Different, but not scary IMO.
Big changes to the pitching staff. Tommy Glavine is gone. Sorry to see him go for sentimental reasons, but it was the right move. Millwood is gone. I liked him, but he certainly was not irreplaceable.
But now, we have Paul Byrd, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz. I really like Byrd, and I think Hampton and Oriz can fill in nicely.
In the bullpen, we lost Mike Remlinger, Chris Hammond, Kerry Lightenberg and Tim Spooneybarger. I love Remlinger and Hammond had a fantastic year. Our bullpen will take a hit, but keep in mind that Smoltz, Gryboski, Holmes, and newly acquired Ray King is nothing to sneeze at. The Bullpen will not be as dominant as it was last year, but we should be ok.
Is Javy Lopez moving to 1st? If he can get his hitting in order I will be OK with that. Is Derosa going to be starting at 3rd? I’d like to see what he could do when he’s playing every day. Furcal and Giles are solid in the field and at the plate. Please, for the love of god, keep Vinnie Castilla out of there. Yeah yeah, great fielding, whatever. He’s a BUM and he blew so many RBI opportunities I lost count back in July. I know he’s signed through this year (at least – not sure beyond that) and I still nearly blow a gasket when I think we could have signed Johnny Damon last year for less money than we paid VC. A starting 3rd baseman hitting .232 with a .268 OBP is NOT the answer. Sorry, I just hate vinnie.
We’ll see what’s going to happen. I think we still have a very good chance of winning the division and then choking in the playoffs. :rolleyes:
Regarding the Ortiz/Moss trade – It’s a tough call. I liked Moss a lot and think he has good potential. I think it will take several years before we’ll know who got the better end of this deal.
Reading this thread I think I’m on wholesome-basebally-goodness overload. My word.
The one stone prediction I’ve made so far this year (other than this is the year for the BoSox, of course) has been:
- Chicago will win the AL Central by at least 10 games.
I also strongly agree with JC’s 2, 6, 9. My vote goes to Johnson. I also don’t think Dessens is truly the #3 guy they’ve been looking for all these years as some people seem to be saying.
Man, where to start? I’ve got a lot to say, but I’ll begin by adding my own spiel, particularly since I got a mention in the OP (what up Neurotik!).
Theo Epstein. When he first came into the picture it was depressing. He’s only 6 years older than me and I’m nowhere near as close as he is to being the Red Sox GM. But the moves he’s made have been… breathtaking.
Jose Contreras, Bartolo Colon, Edgardo Alfonzo. Passing on these highly-paid, high-risk, low-return free agents was the first smart thing (and maybe even the smartest thing) Epstein did. Contreras is a question mark with 0 MLB IPs. Colon’s well-traveled and risky. I loved him in 1999 with Cleveland; not so much in 2003 with Boston. Alfonzo had a terrible season last year and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that 2002 is closer to his true potential than 2001.
Rey Sanchez, Ugueth Urbina, Rich Garces, Tony Clark, (Jose Offerman). Addition by subtraction. 'Nuff said. Well, almost 'nuff. I’ve always liked El Guapo (Garces), but the last couple years he just couldn’t get it done. Here’s hoping he fares better in Colorado, although I’m not holding my breath. Jose Offerman is here, despite Theo having had nothing to do with his being dumped on Seattle, merely because I am absolutely thrilled to have him gone.
Trot Nixon, Casey Fossum, (Shea Hillenbrand). Keeping Trot and Fossum was big-time. Trot racked up career highs in doubles and RBIs last year, despite hitting almost 20 points below his career average. He rocks righties (.393 avg vs RHP last year) and is improving against lefties. 30 steals was a Kerrigan pipe dream, but as the Sox wake up from their long-practiced slumber on the basepaths of the 80’s and 90’s he’ll get more chances. Fossum’s a great young pitcher with gargantuan upside. I’m still upset about trading Ohka for stupid Urbina, as I had envisioned the two of them coming into their greatness together under Pedro’s tutelage. Hilly the “all-star third baseman” I couldn’t care less about. I’ll take Billy Mueller and his K/BB ratio of less than 100, thanks. I agree with the camp that says he should be traded because his value will never be higher, but I’m just not sure for what. But he’s in this section because Theo was smart enough not to ship him in return for one year of paying Colon too much, for example. I mean, I’d move him for prospects right now with Mueller here for 2 years and the guys we’ve got down on the farm (interestingly, 3B may be the only strong position in our weak farm system).
And on to the addition by addition. Todd Walker, Bill Mueller, Mike Timlin, Chad Fox, Ramiro Mendoza, David Ortiz, Jeremy Giambi, Damian Jackson. The first two are my favorite. Two guys that will put the ball in play, can put it off the Monster, play good defense. Solid, dependable players that you can get for good money. I love these moves. I’ve already posted some on these boards about how I feel about Giambi. I don’t see exactly where he fits in but he’ll get on base and apparently doesn’t mind playing off the bench. Same mostly goes for Ortiz except I think he has more upside. Hasn’t played a complete season in a couple years, and leaving the Metrodome should help his knees. I see 30 HRs in this guy playing at Fenway if he gets the ABs. Timlin’s a proven guy, he can setup or close, he can come in at any time and get three outs. He’s perfect for the new breed of bullpen we’re creating here; see below. Fox is another guy with incredible potential. He never really got a chance in Milwaukee and should fit right in here. Mendoza had a lot of success in New York and of course I’m leery of having him here; but he’s certainly a good pitcher. Jackson’s a speed guy with a lot of versatility and is one of my favorite bench guys around.
Every one of these guys is a dependable baseball player with no attitude problems and no big-money drawbacks. Extremely, extremely promising.
The lineup. Damon, Giambi, Nomar, Manny, maybe Ortiz?, Hilly, Trot, Walker, Varitek. My only concern is that I’m not sure who to hit behind Manny. But the front of that lineup leaves me salivating. Okay, sure, I was also drooling over Thome and Kent. But I like this new direction. And Varitek batting ninth? Unreal.
The Rotation. Pedro and Lowe. I’ve come around to D-Lowe slowly. My opinion at this time last year was roughly, 'He sucked as a starter so he went to the ‘pen. He struggled as a closer and the solution is to have him start?’ But… he seemed to be for real. My dad loves him. So for now I’m on the bandwagon too. Pedro and Lowe. Is there a better 1-2 in the AL? And for the idiots who say we needed to add a big-name starter in the offseason, I fart in your general direction. Who had a career year last year after soldiering on for the Sox in the rotation, spot starting, long relief, and even closing over the last few seasons? And what do knucklers do when they get older? That’s right. Tim Wakefield. They get better. Pedro, Lowe, Wakey. It doesn’t get better. Burkett is in the wings to have the resurgent year we thought he would have last year. Rupe and Castillo (as much as I hate the 5-inning-pitching Sarge) are insurance. With some grooming Rupe should become an actual option. And then there’s Fossum. Yum.
The Bullpen. Embree, Howry, Timlin, Mendoza, Fox. Absolutely superb. No “closer” and I like it that way. Bring in the best guy for the given situation, regardless of what inning it is. Anathema to fantasy ball, but then again so was Urbina. These guys are fabulous. I can’t say enough about how much I like the direction our pen is taking. Any of these guys would be the #1 or #2 go-to guy in any other bullpen (except the Yankees, but they want to pay Sterling Hitchcock $6 mil to sit in the 'pen).
The Bench. Hilly/Mueller/Ortiz/Giambi to juggle the corner infield spots and DH with some backup OF ability thrown in. Damian Jackson can play every position but P and C. Agbayani I don’t like. Seems like he had one good hit in his career and he already hit it (Giants fans will know what I mean). Merloni I don’t care for much but I don’t mind either. But any of these guys can come off the bench and get a hit.
Ahh, what more can I say. I love this damn team. And this could be the year!
Regarding my Mariners:
Other than the Rangers, I see the AL West as a dead heat, same as last year. All three teams are very good, with different strengths and weaknesses. It’s all about execution (of course); the matchups are, in advance of actual gameplay, impossible to forecast.
Others have discussed the Angels, and I agree: Will they keep playing as well as they have? Will Sele (who the Mariners dumped, and rightly so) self-destruct in the first half or the second half? I’ll also add this: Will the team start slow and be subjected to counterproductive pressure from corporate ownership to make an unnecessary and potentially harmful change?
Similar things can be said about the Athletics, on different counts. They’ve got a lot of players looking to re-sign or move on. How will that affect clubhouse chemistry? Will players be looking to the field for the current game, or to their agents for where they’ll be playing next year?
The Mariners are still a very good team, but a lot of potential pitfalls lurk.
First, we didn’t acquire an ace pitcher over the winter. That was a high priority, and management booted it. We have a lot of very good young arms coming up from the farm, but they’ve been struggling with health problems and many are recovering from surgery. If Gil Meche turns into the new Joel Pineiro, things will look very rosy indeed. But if Jamie Moyer finally runs out of gas, we’re in serious trouble.
And speaking of pitchers, Freddy Garcia won his salary arbitration hearing yesterday, putting the M’s over their planned budget. They can absorb the extra million or so in the short term, but that screws up their ability to maneuver at the trade deadline if they need another bat or glove. Plus Garcia may or may not be a performer. He was strong his first three years, but has been trending downward. We have to have him performing as an ace or we’re dead.
And speaking of Moyer, Neurotic is right: The M’s are definitely aging. It’s excellent for chemistry that they landed all of their veteran free agents (Olerud, Wilson, etc.), but how many years can Edgar keep swinging the bat? We do not need a repeat of last year when he injured himself trotting to first base. The man runs like a dump truck now, anyway. Great bat, great leader, accelerates like an oil tanker. Similar worries center on McLemore, and the apparently-more-quickly-fatigued Ichiro.
Not to mention the Big Unknown, the new manager. Will Bob Melvin be a star or a bust? Can he motivate his people? Can he pull miracles out of obscure moves? Piniella always seemed to have a near-mystical instinct for making exactly the right substition or calling the right play at the right time, and getting the desired result. Will Melvin be a miracle worker or a mook?
And of course there are the problems that were never solved last year still hanging around. Can Cameron and Cirillo figure out why they aren’t hitting? Can Boone rebound from punishing himself about not being able to repeat an unrepeatable fluke season? Can Guillen get into a groove of consistency, both defensively and offensively, instead of suffering through these hot and cold streaks?
The team is hugely improved on the bench (particularly by Greg Colbrunn), which will help road play, and assuming all of our pitchers stay healthy (everybody’s fingers are crossed for yet another improbable Charlton comeback) we’ve got a net improvement there too. The only high-profile off-season addition, Randy Winn, should be a contributor as well.
But there are just too many places where things can go wrong, and the division competition is just too good for the M’s to think they have much leeway for error (unless similar bad luck befalls either the Angels or the Athletics or, heh heh, both).
I’m very excited, but I’m very nervous as well.
You’re nuts. While I think the ChiSox can definitely win the Central, I don’t think it’s going to be by more than 3 or 4 games.
And I think you are hopelessly optimistic about the BoSox, but I don’t want to burst your bubble early. I always like watching the expressions on my Bostonian friends’ faces when the Sox come apart down the stretch.
Anyway, here are my predictions:
AL West - this is sooo tough. But I think it goes Oakland, Anaheim, Seattle and Texas in last. Part of this prediction is I don’t want to jinx my Angels…I’m ridiculously superstitious when it comes to this.
AL Central - Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit. But really, who the hell cares? It’s a weak division.
AL East - New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
AL Wild Card - Boston…I’ll throw Lightning a bone here.
NL West - San Francisco, Arizona, Los Angeles, San Diego, Colorado.
NL Central - This is another toughy. A lot of parity here. I’m gonna take a mulligan, except I predict that Milwaukee will come in last.
NL East - New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Montreal and Florida. That’s assuming Philly’s young rotation comes back strong. If they don’t, switch Philly and Atlanta.
NL Wild Card - Philadelphia. Again, replace them with Atlanta if their young starters don’t rebound from last year.
There you have it. Brilliant predictions, if I do say so myself. Have to come back and see how I did in a few months.
spooje we need to do a baseball game in April. Whether it is the Dodgers or Angels, doesn’t matter. We will have to look at the schedules of each.
Neurotik if you get out to Cali, I am definitely up for going to a game, and I am sure we can twist spooje’s arm. And maybe get a few other LA dopers involved to make it a baseball mini-dopefest.
What I like about the Angels chances for winning the AL West is the stat that shows clubs historically not winning penants the year they change managers. And since all of the other clubs did just that except for the Angels… WooHoo, another year to get to go to the World Series.
deb
Cubs will not win the World Series.
What a brave prediction!
We’ll my team is the Rockies.
It was a great off season in my opinion. Dumping Hampton was the first great move. I think Wilson will be great for the team, Coors field turned Bichete into a good player, and Wilson is simliar but much better, I think he may become a big star here(although he may have an 80 HR 400 strikeout season, if he really lets loose his swing). Jose Hernandez I think is a great addition too, He is like Vinny Castilla, but better, and may have a huge season too. Johnson might be good too, if he doesn’t miss to many games. Left field is a world class collection of great prospects that havn’t done much yet, but maybe one of them will break out finally. If Helton and Walker can stay healthy the Blake street bombers will be back, and possible better than ever.
The pitching is a huge question mark of course. If The young guys, Jennings, Stark and Chacon can keep it up, and Neagle doesn’t suck as bad, there is hope. And the bullpen of White, Spiere, and Jiminez actually looked good last year.
Any other division I’d say they have an outside chance at the playoffs, but with that many games against the D-backs, Giants and Dodgers, it just ain’t gonna happen.
Prediction, .500 to 5 over.
I’d like to, but the chances of me getting out to California before next Christmas is practically nil. Just warning you…
What’s worse is attending a game against the Yankees at Camden Yards, and there seem to be 3 or 4 Yankee fans for every O’s fan.
Oh man, it used to be like that Anaheim stadium. I suspect it has gotten better since I last went (a 2002 preseason game vs Rockies).
Unfortunately, that’s true. But, on the occasions when the Orioles manage to beat the Yankees, it’s very satisfying to send those smug bastards home with a loss.
As someone who moved to Baltimore (from Australia) almost three years ago, i think the aspect of attendance at Camden Yards that amazed me most was the fact that, in a city that’s about 65% African American, the baseball crowd was the lily-whitest bunch of people i’ve ever seen.
Having lived here for a while now, however, i’ve heard that this situation is not unique to Baltimore. And i can see that with my own eyes whenever i watch TV games from other cities. It’s an interesting sociological phenomenon.
Yes. Unfortunately, baseball is considered a “white sport.” You could even hear the kids from Harlem or the Bronx in the Little League World Series mentioning that a lot of kids would make fun of them for playing baseball rather than basketball.
I did and I, too, am disappointed.
One of my favorite things about going to Red Sox games in Oakland – the one thing that all the fans present can agree on is that they hate the Yankees.
It’s been a safe prediction since 1909(?). You can count on the Cubs, one of the strongest arguments against the theory of evolution.