Sunny bleacher stands and beer tend to have that effect on most biological theories.
FAVOURITES:
Oakland
Anaheim
St. Louis
New York-AL
GOOD CHANCE:
San Francisco
Minnesota
Los Angeles
Chicago-AL
Boston, but just to make the postseason, not win it all
Philadelphia
Houston
SLIM CHANCE:
Toronto
Montreal
Seattle
Atlanta
New York-NL
Montreal
Florida
Chicago-NL
Colorado
San Diego
Cincinnati
Arizona
NO CHANCE:
Baltimore
Detroit
Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Kansas City
Texas
My fave team has been the Padres since the mid-80s. Assuming their health problems from last year have been solved, I expect to see some improvement, but not much. They just don’t have the talent. I am expexting a return to form from Phil Nevin, although I question the move to left field. And, assuming the off-season surgery was a success, I expect Trevor Hoffman to save 40 games, as usual.
Beyond that, I am looking forward to watching Calgary boy, Chris Reitsma, in his third year in the majors. He looked good on the mound in the first half, although he couldn’t buy a win. Although his arm started to wear out in the second half and he was moved to the bullpen, he still pitched effectively. I’m hoping to see a 10-15 win season out of him this year.
Also, it would do my heart good to see the Yankees falter this year, since I hate them. Finally, I still don’t think the baseball gods have forgiven the Red Sox for trading the Babe. Look for them to flame out in September. Again.
Fellow Giants fans, I feel your paint. Six outs away…six outs away…in game 6 when they started showing old film clips of the 1954 Giants WS celebration, I started screaming “Ahhhhh! Noooo! Don’t jinx it…”…but they didn’t hear me.
Ahem.
Anyway, I have a bad feeling. With Jeff Kent batting 5th, Barry still set the record for IBB’s. With Edgardo Alfonzo–he won’t see a strike all year.
I’d trade Livan Hernandez for a batting donut and a fungo bat.
I feel your pain, not your paint. And I know Kent batted 4th and Bonds 3rd. My brain is not in mid-season form yet.
Actually, it’s MLB Radio’s fault. Even KNBR’s powerful signal has limits, and I don’t have a TV, so I subscribe to MLB Radio. I listen to every Giants game I can.
During Game 6, MLB Radio overloaded from all of the people listening, and kicked me out. And I couldn’t get back in. I practically had a nervous breakdown. I’m not kidding, I was absolutely freaking out. Mid-freakout, I wrote a furious email to MLB Radio telling them that if the Giants blew their lead because I couldn’t listen to the game, it would be entirely their fault for having such a wimpy ass server.
So, there you go.
P.S. Joey Hemlock took pity on me and gave me play by play via IRC, and because he is a true friend, comforted me at the end.
I thought “I feel your paint” was pretty hilarious and very intentional.
Alfonzo batting after Bonds can be good. The Giants have a team this year that can get on base. With Durham, Aurilia, and (hopefully) Cruz on the bases, it will be harder for them to walk bonds and load the bases for Alfonzo.
I like this years team because they have speed. Under Dustiny, the Giants never stole bases. This should wreak havoc on the teams who were used to the Giants playing that way. Plus, with the big park, we should see many more triples and doubles.
By the way, the Livan trade you proposed seems to steep. We might be able to get a hot dog for him.
only six outs away, only six outs away, only six…Arrrgggghhh
RickJay , you mentioned Montreal twice and neglected my beloved Indians. Where do you pick them? Personally, I give the Tribe a good chance to win the AL Central because they seem to have stockpiled some good young talent and the division isn’t very strong.
The Tribe has a not very good chance to win the AL Central. They have some good young talent, but they’re like the Jays right now -in other words, about two seasons away from seriously contending. With their new additions, I think the Sox have a good chance of winning the central, although acquiring Koch was just dumb as Foulke was the better reliever. Not to mention the fact that I’m sure Beane got the better end of the minor leaguers involved in the trade just because he usually does. Smart man, that Billy Beane. And, of course, the Twinkies should do well, too.
But no Cleveland for a few more seasons.
Bite your tongue!
White Lightning: Which part? The Yankee hatred or the Red Sox annual self-destruction-fest? 
Jimbo, you must not have read my other posts in this thread. 
Yankee hatred I can get behind. Speaking ill of the beloved Sox is unacceptable.
CF Damon
2B Walker
SS Nomar
LF Ramirez
1B Millar
DH Ortiz
RF Nixon
3B Hillenbrand
C Varitek
SP Martinez
SP Lowe
SP Wakefield
SP Burkett
SP Fossum
RP Embree
RP Howry
RP Mendoza
RP Timlin
RP Fox
Can anyone blame me for being excited?
Anyway, I thought I’d come in here and just toss out some more opinions on the coming season, just for kicks. Input, positive or negative, is very much welcomed.
General statements:
AL West. Very competitive. Looks like it should finish in reverse order of team payroll for the 2nd consecutive season. Texas has some potential but won’t be able to dig out of the cellar in such a competitive division unless Melvin can’t hold the crotchety Mariners together for one more stab. Oakland and Anaheim should perform very similarly to last year.
AL Central. Not much happening here. Minnesota has a decent young squad, Cleveland’s rebuilding, KC and Detroit won’t see any benefit out of the luxury tax for another year or two (and will probably mismanage it away anyway), and Chicago will dominate. The most exciting story here is where Beltran will be going in July.
AL East. Again, two of baseball’s richest teams benefit from playing divisional games against two of the league’s biggest patsies. Toronto should be good in a couple years, but doesn’t have the depth to compete on the NYY/Bos level yet, and should hover around .500. My second stone prediction of the 2003 offseason: serious speculation in August about Torre losing his job.
NL West. Very weak division. Arizona can’t hold it together after an uninspiring offseason fails to rejuvenate their aging squad. Los Angeles has too many holes to be a serious contender; their bullpen can’t win every game. San Diego could put something together but would be a stretch to contend. Colorado will contend – for a variety of offensive strikeout records.
NL Central. Lot of action here, and this division should be up for grabs. I’m going with Houston’s good young pitching staff and eternally potent offense. Chicago will come strong under Dusty Baker with some great young players. St Louis could contend while flying under the radar of all the buzz around this division. The Reds have a lot going for them but nobody they can rely on in the rotation or out of the pen.
NL East. You’d think that teams in this division would learn, after years of being trampled by quality Braves teams, that impact signings are not the way to win. But the Phillies and Mets showed this offseason that they haven’t absorbed that idea, ranking 1-2 in offseason spending. I like Thome, I like the Phils’ rotation, but I don’t think they can put the pieces together immediately. These Braves still have another year or two of greatness in them. I’m intrigued by the Mets – another year of wasteful spending, but Art Howe should be able to do a lot more with these pieces than Valentine was.
Here’s how the divisions will break down, with rough win estimates and wildcard berths assigned:
AL West NL West
x Oakland 100 x San Francisco 90
Anaheim 95 y Arizona 90
Seattle 85 Los Angeles 85
Texas 80 San Diego 70
Colorado 70
AL Central
x Chicago 100 NL Central
Minnesota 90 x Houston 95
Cleveland 80 Chicago 90
Kansas City 60 St. Louis 85
Detroit 55 Cincinnati 80
Pittsburgh 70
AL East Milwaukee 55
x Boston 100
y New York 95 NL East
Toronto 80 x Atlanta 90
Baltimore 70 Philadelphia 90
Tampa Bay 55 NY Mets 85
Florida 70
Montreal 65
And the power ranking:
1 Boston (allow me this vanity)
2 Oakland
3 Houston
4 NY-AL
5 Chi-AL
6 Anaheim
7 Atlanta
8 Philadelphia
9 SF
10 Chi-NL
11 Arizona
12 NY-NL
13 Minnesota
14 St. Louis
15 Seattle
16 Los Angeles
17 Toronto
18 Cincinnati
19 Texas
20 Cleveland
21 San Diego
22 Baltimore
23 Colorado
24 Florida
25 Pittsburgh
26 Tampa Bay
27 Kansas City
28 Detroit
29 Milwaukee
30 Montreal
Beltran sweepstakes frontrunners (June/July):
1 Los Angeles
2 Arizona
3 NY-AL
4 Chicago-NL
5 Houston
Just out of curiosity, what, exactly, will LA, Arizona or the Yankees have to give KC in return for Beltran?
Furthermore, you are insane, Lightning. Boston doesn’t have the pitching depth of of the Yankees. Not only that, but if you look at them position by position, the Yanks still come out on top.
1B - Yankees
2B - Yankees
3B - Yankees
SS - Boston
C - Yankees
LF - Boston
CF - Yankees
RF - Could go either way depending on who the Yanks play in right. If Matsui, then the Yanks, if Mondesi, then Boston.
So the Sox only show better production at 2.5 positions. Their rotation isn’t nearly as deep. It just doesn’t look good for the Sox.
And I’m not sure where you got those games won projections. I mean, I think the ChiSox will do well, maybe win the division - but 100 wins? You’re out of your mind. They win 95, tops. Twins win 92. Not only that, but no way the D-Rays win 55. Even with Piniella, they win 50 tops.
Next, the Yankees win 100+ and the Sox win in the high 90s. Sorry. Oakland wins 100+, too. My God, they are such a scary team. San Fran easily wins in the mid 90s. Philly and the Mets are both probably in the low to mid 90s.
That’s my opinion, anyway.
White Lightning, I’m sorry, but the Red Sox aren’t going to win the World Series. It doesn’t matter who plays for them. They’re going to blow it at some point - it might be in the regular season, might be in the postseason, but they’ll lose.
Patrick, you’re right, I messed up and didn’t put in Cleveland. I’d put them in the same category; slim chance. I think it would be a surprise if they won, but they aren’t hopeless.
Beltran:
To be honest, I haven’t gotten that far. So far I’ve only thought about who will need him and when. Predicting what the Royals will imagine is their biggest hole in July may be too much for me. I also haven’t figured out yet where he’ll go if they decide to ship him in the spring.
Win Projections:
- The ChiSox will surprise everyone this year. Except me, heh. 100 wins.
- You could be right about the Twins. Both of those teams will victimize the rest of the hapless AL Central. That’s where all the additional ChiSox wins come from too, by the way. From Detroit, who I spared the embarrassment of predicting will win fewer games this year than ever before, but who will be absolutely wretched. Minnesota: You say 92, I say 90. There’s a reason I was rounding by 5’s.
- It may surprise you to learn that Tampa Bay went 55-106 last year. It certainly surprised me when I looked it up this afternoon. I think the acquisition of Piniella and the natural development of some of their young hitters (okay, just Aubrey Huff) will offset the loss of Winn and Sturtze. I stand by my 55-win projection.
- Yanks will continue to come back to earth. So let it be said, so let it be done. 95 wins, 2nd place.
- BoSox will last down the stretch in a way that they haven’t done in years, simply because the squad this year is uniquely constructed to do just that. Improved depth 1-9 and in the pen. 100+ wins.
- You may certainly be right about Oakland and SF. I’m local so I tend to be overly conservative with those two teams. Oakland certainly looks strong. They play in an insane division though. They’d certainly be pushing 110+ in any other division in baseball. I’ll stick with 100-105 for Oakland.
- I just don’t see it happening across the Bay, though. I’ve got a lot of respect for Alou, the pieces are certainly in place, and a LOT of questions were addressed this offseason. But as a matter of principle, I just don’t think a team that’s been revamped so thoroughly can do as well as people tend to expect. Half the starting lineup is new to the team, and I don’t believe Alfonzo can hit behind Barry. 90 wins. Could go higher if LA falters sooner than I think they will and if the Pads and Rocks fail to compete.
- Same principle goes for the Phillies and Mets. I seriously can’t believe that after their dismal 2002 campaign, the Mets didn’t change their offseason strategy one bit. And the Phils liked it so much they adopted it too. 180 wins tops for the two teams combined.
AL East:
1B/2B - Yankees, no contest. Although I think Soriano will fall off from last year. 30 HR tops.
3B - You’re taking Robin Ventura over Hillenbrand/Mueller, and I’m insane?
SS - Boston (glad to see you’re objective on this point ).
C - Could be closer than people think. Varitek is underrated and Posada’s pushing. Again, look to the backups; Mirabelli’s average on both sides of the ball while Flaherty’s a non-factor. I’ll give you this one for New York at this point, though.
LF - Boston
CF - I guess it should go to the Yankees. Damon’s a great ballplayer, though. But he may still be feeling the effects of all the injuries last year, and won’t start as fast.
RF - I understand that most other analysts don’t share my love for Trot Nixon, but I’ll take Nixon/Giambi/Millar over Mondesi any day. I’m starting Matsui in left for New York, Rondell White’s the backup.
So I count 4 of 8 positions for Boston.
Remember that that rotation “depth” you’re counting on is the oldest in baseball. Clemens is 41. Wells is 40. Mussina is 34. Pettitte is 30. They’ve all had their struggles. The Yankees are going to need every inch of that depth in the rotation to get through the year. Sure, you’ve got Contreras, Weaver, Hitchcock as starters 5 through 7, but how many innings will starters 1 through 3 be able to pitch, compared to Boston’s?
And their bullpen just does not compare to Boston’s. They’ve got big names in Hammond, Karsay, and Rivera, but again, all struggled last year (well, Hammond didn’t one bit, but he’s got his own issues). Karsay’s coming back from surgery. Rivera’s coming back from not having surgery. I like Acevedo a lot.
And another impact area your breakdown ignores is the bench. I’ll take Boston’s 13th man on offense over the Yankees’ 9th.
Boston (starting at 9):
Ortiz
Giambi
Mueller
Jackson
Lopez
New York:
Johnson
Zeile
White
Who?
RickJay, note that I haven’t made any postseason predictions yet. At this juncture I have no comment regarding your statement.
Eh? How do you not take Ventura over Hillenbrand/Mueller? Seriously. Hillenbrand will probably end up with an OPS of around .760, probably lower. Same with Mueller. Ventura will probably end up with an OPS of around .780. Ventura is the better pick here for the 2003 season and it’s not even up for debate.
I’ll give you 3 out of 8. Max.
I don’t think 3 out of 8 is generous at all. At the corner OF spots I don’t see any way Matsui/Mondesi/White will outperform Ramirez/Nixon/Giambi/Millar/Ortiz. As a unit I’d take Boston’s full OF any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
I’ll admit that 3B is closer than I initially thought. But I’m taking the same approach. Ventura hasn’t played more than 142 games since 1999. He had a good year last year but is aging. His numbers and Hilly’s look very similar, and Hilly’s upside is leaps and bounds over Ventura’s. As he gains experience and his plate discipline continues to improve he should put up much stronger numbers.
Hilly’s OPS 2002: .789
Ventura’s OPS 2002: .826
Obviously I’ll disagree with you that it’s not up for debate. Ventura enjoyed a rejuvenation last year but I don’t think he’ll keep it up. Hilly’s a young star on the rise. I guess we’ll see. But I don’t think 3.5 of 8 position players for Boston would be a stretch.
I don’t think Ventura will keep it up, either, that’s why I decreased his OPS this year. And not only is Hillenbrand not a young star on the rise, but he’s probably not going to improve that much. His plate discipline early on in last season was a fluke. At the most, he’ll end his career as a better than average third baseman, but he won’t be in the ranks of Glaus, Chavez, Texeira, Blalock, Hinske, Rolen. Not even close. I mean, he’s already 27…he’s just not going to improve his plate discipline that much at his age.
And anyway, I gave you the corner outfield spots. So you have LF, RF and SS. That’s 3 out of 8.
Neurotik, I think we’re down to bickering over crumbs at this point. If I give in on Hillenbrand (and, to be honest, I’ve never bought the hype about him either. One of the reasons I’m so excited about Mueller), despite the fact that I still think the numbers come September will bear me out, I’ll take your 3 of 8 and my contention that the bench and the pen will push the Sox over the top.
Anyway I think the teams are fairly evenly matched on paper. The difference could well be made in how Little and Torre hold things together down the stretch, and which local media reacts more favorably to the first half of the season.