Pitting Brett Favre

Did nobody read my posts? I clearly stated multiple times that I hold Big Blue accountable for all the same problems I pointed out in Philly. As far as how great McNabb is compared to Collins, I forget which NFC Championship game McNabb won 41-0…could somebody remind me?

Furt seemed particular offended by my opinions:

After that title game performance, I’d say there are 2 better ones on the Eagles alone. All kidding aside, I disagree with the mobile QB paradigm, and I have maintained (and always will until proven wrong) that a scrambler will never win a Superbowl, for several reasons. Listed in order of relevance:

  1. Scramblers take too many hits and so can’t stay healthy

  2. Scramblers are loathe to stand there that last fraction of a second and make the clutch pass for the big play when they know they’ll take the big hit; instead, they pull the ball down early and try to create something out of nothing, which is not what being a passer is all about.

To be clear, a pocket “big hit” will usually knock the wind out of you, or crack a rib. A scrambler’s “big hit” may involve high ankle sprains or #CL tears. (Unless, of course, you’re Vinny Testaverde. sigh)

  1. Scramblers, as a rule, don’t trust either their receivers or their OL. That’s why they scramble. As a QB you need to trust your teammates to do their jobs, even if they get beaten. You have to forget the bad play that just happened and keep playing. This is what Scary Kerry abjectly failed to do in 2003, and I have serious concerns that he will not be able to rebound next year, if he ever can. McFlabb has yet to trust any receivers in his career, but after that last game, I can hardly blame him.
    It was pointed out to me that I cannot have respect for Andy Reid, who calls the plays, and not have respect for McFlabb, who is just running Reid’s plays. I don’t understand the logic behind that. Why can’t I respect a system, but not a skill position it employs? I don’t (as a rule) respect RBs who can’t block, but I can still respect a scheme that doesn’t call for RBs to block. In such a case, I probably wouldn’t respect those particular backs, despite respecting the coach’s scheme.

Basically I am extrapolating from the job descriptions. Running Back and Wide Receiver pretty much sums it up.

Joe Montana. Are you seriously comparing him to McNabb?

No, that’s not. I guess you were asleep in the first half of the season, but I saw game film broken down calling out McNabb for not throwing to wide open Wide Receivers down the field and instead dumping it off to backs coming out of the backfield. It was downfield plays that worked correctly where McNabb, inexplicably, decided to go with the safer dump off. That is gutless.

A couple weeks later, around the time that McNabb achieved his first WR catch of the season, that Rush shoved food up his ass and crapped out his mouth, and then nobody was able to openly criticize McNabb for the rest of the season. Several weeks after that, the Eagles got their very first TD catch out of a WR.

I disagree. I think Reid wins despite McNabb’s (apparently justifiable) utter lack of confidence in his WRs. That has to be fixed. Bring in T.O. I betcha McNabb still throws a gazillion dumpoffs, and T.O. will go apeshit about his gutless QB not throwing to him.

You people have to be able to make the distinction between systems and positional play. By some of these arguments you could also say that the Panthers have a top two passing game, because they are in the show. That’s ridiculous. Stats are indeed for losers, but stats let you understand and appreciate the game.

But okay, so I’m an utter buffoon for pulling those percentages out of my ass. I admit that I did. They are my intuition based on my grasp of the game. Let’s see how close I am to correct. To make the scope manageable, let’s confine it to Superbowl teams.

2003 Patriots: WR: 55%, TE: 20%, RB: 27%
2003 Panthers: WR 64%. TE: 11%, RB: 25%

2002 Bucs: WR: 53%, TE: 15%. RB: 32%
2002 Raiders: WR: 54%, TE: 14%, RB: 32%

2001 Patriots: WR: 62%, TE: 6%, RB: 30% (Patriots seem to never add up)
2001 Rams: WR: 59%, TE: 13%, RB: 28%

2000 Ravens: WR: 42%, TE: 27%, RB: 31%
2000 Giants: WR: 53%, TE: 12%, 35%

Okay, that’s every Superbowl team in this century. Let’s see, I think the true distribution ideal is somewhere between my instinct and the counter argument, Joe Montana. Let’s average them out:

WR: 55%, TE: 15%, RB: 30% (similar to Bucs of 2002)

I had said:

WR: 62.5%, TE: 22%, RB 15.5%

McNabb’s distribution, which I claimed was skewed heavily to RBs:

WR: 46%, TE: 18%, RB: 36%

Two things immediately jump out at me. Having Shockey has skewed my perception of what the TE position is supposed to be. (Which is also reflected in Heap’s superbowl-winning rookie season, where TEs caught 27% of the Raven’s completions.)

Also, running backs should get far more than 15.5% of the completions. Around 30%. I find this interesting, and may download the entire pro-football-reference database for actual analysis one of these days.

I think my point is solid, however, that McFlabb threw too many dump offs and not enough completions to WRs. That may be because they had a ton of drops, or he didn’t trust them not to drop it, or he chickened out and pulled the ball down and ran. Whatever the case, a decent passing game does indeed involve throwing more than 50% of your passes to WRs, and the WRs should be catching almost twice the number of passes as RBs. Clearly, the Eagles distribution is out of whack.

The scariest thing to me in all this is that the Bucs of 2002 had the “ideal” pass distribution. Yikes. I need to download that database. I am really curious to see the % of passes caught by all players broken down by position.

Interesting. Ellis, how hard is it to find these breakdowns? I’d be interested in knowing the passing distribution of the Packers this past season.

Just check out pro-football-reference.com. They list the 2003 Packers with the following stats:

Completions: 310

WR: 52, 38, 14 and 41 which totals to 145.
TE: 30, 13 and 20 which totals to 63.
HB: 6, 21, 50, 24, and 1 which totals to 102.

That breaks down to:

WR: 47%
TE: 20%
HB: 33%

I would call that low on WRs and high on RBs, but my personal taste is well documented. Looking at the team for what it is, it’s probably a smart distribution. You have Ahman Green and Bubba Franks, so you want a lot of reps going to them. The Packers don’t have the strongest receiving core, so it makes sense that they’d be light on the WRs.

Considering the horrible Eagles WR core, yeah, I can’t blame Donovan too much for his distribution. Hey, props to McNabb for working the TEs so well. Gotta respect that. (At least, I do.)

Ellis, I believe we had this argument when the Limbaugh thing happened, but once again, I respectfully submit that you don’t know what you’re talking about. Is your position really that McNabb, he of the 150 playoff completions, is afraid to throw the ball downfield? He’s gutless? All the way to the NFL, a #2 overall pick, and nobody picked up on the fact that he’s scared of long throws?

Look, it really is simple. The Eagles’ receivers do not get open. A quarterback who wishes to stay on the field doesn’t throw many balls to a receiver who hasn’t gotten any separation. I don’t mean comfortable separation, I mean any. Give’em a halfhearted chuck at the line, and the play is over. Ricky Manning Jr. was laughing at Todd Pinkston. Literally. And Ricky Manning Jr. isn’t that much of a lockdown corner. It’s a mark of McNabb’s intelligence that he doesn’t have any faith in his receivers- it’s the worst receiving corps you could possibly put together without getting fired. I’m serious. These guys aren’t just incapable of being number ones. Pinkston shouldn’t be in the fucking NFL- maybe as a number four or something, but hell, what are his abilities? He’s a possession receiver with terrible hands and who shies away from contact.

Report all the breakdowns of who caught the ball you want. Last I checked, a completion involves two components: 1). Quarterback throws ball. 2). Somebody catches the fucking thing. When you have receivers who excel at both not getting open AND dropping balls, of course the percentages are lousy. Add to this the fact that Reid scripts a very conservative game, and that the Eagles backs are (were- Duce is gone, real smart) very good receivers, and it’s a given that the Eagles completion charts will be very back-heavy. That’s the offense these guys run anyway- you mentioned the Packers, someone else Montana. All the Holmgren guys run a back-heavy passing game.

As for the scrambler thing, Steve Young won a Super Bowl. What exactly is a scrambler anyway? You act like there’s a form you have to fill out, or a club to join to become a scrambler, and after that you play a whole different game. Some quarterbacks are good athletes. Is McNabb’s ability as a quarterback somehow damaged by the fact that he’s more athletic than other quarterbacks? You have to be immobile to win, is that it? If Montana ran a 4.45, he’d’ve never won a Super Bowl? To my mind, McNabb reins it in for Reid too much. The way the offense is currently constituted, they need him to run the ball 5-8 times a game just to put points on the board. It’s a miracle they scored any offensive touchdowns without Westbrook in there- they’ve pretty much been running an offense with 9 guys for the last four years.

There’s a great deal you can say about McNabb’s faults- he’s inaccurate on short routes, he can’t beat a cover-2 because he doesn’t drop the ball into coverages, he’s not a great play-faker, etc. None of the stuff you’re criticizing him for has any bearing on reality, though. The guy played a game with a broken leg, but you essentially called him a coward because he runs a conservative offense.

Since I’m already all worked up about the Eagles, and I’m already posting, I hope none of you Eagles fans have any hope whatsoever that they’re gonna go after TO. I just can’t see it happening, what with Reid’s “five crappy guys is better than one good guy and four crappy ones” philosophy. I don’t understand how a coach who is so solid in most of his approaches can miss what apparently everyone else sees by now. They would’ve won the Super Bowl if they had any one of the eight or nine top receivers out there, or two legitimate NFL receivers (why the fuck didn’t they claim Kevin Johnson?). But it’s not gonna happen.

I’m harboring a prejudice against McNabb from his original big contract (when he was the highest paid QB…now he’s barely top 10), fueled by incessant Sheagles fans on the Giants.com MB screaming about how much better McNabb is than Collins, and reinforced by EA Sports NFL Matchup from week 1, where Ron Jaworski showed play after play of the Eagles dismantling at the hands of the Bucs. “Look here, the receiver is wide open downfield after having clearly beaten the only deep defender, and McNabb pulled the ball down and ran. Look here on this play, same situation, the receiver is wide open downfield, and Donovan dumps it off to the back.” They did a whole 5 minute segment on it. I’m a Giants fan…I hold a grudge, but I’ll accept facts. Clearly I was wrong on the RB 15% thing.

No doubt that was true in the playoffs. My point was that in the beginning of the season he was called out by NFL analysts for not recognizing when to throw the ball downfield. Against the Panthers in the championship even I would have been calling dumpoffs to the backs. Those receivers blow chunks.

Yep, that is all true. West Coast Offense = throw to the backs. Traditional Offense = throw to receivers. I guess my criticisms in the earlier part of this thread would have been more correctly directed to the West Coast system, and not specifically at McNabb. He can’t make up a system in the huddle.

It’s easy enough to quantify. Rushing yards. Young comes close to being a ‘scrambler’ (in my mind) with 293 rushing yards that season. I’d use that to arbitrarily set the bar at 300. No 300+ yard rusher (at QB) will ever win the superbowl. Simple enough?

Yes, that is exactly the position I am taking. If it is in the back of your mind that you can pull the ball down and run, you will be less likely to stand in there that final fraction of a second you need to in order to complete the pass. Notice how the less McNair runs, the better he passes? Season by season, I’m talking. (This year was his best passing and worst rushing of his career.)

Well, “the catch” would probably never have happened. With too much confidence in his athleticism he may very have pulled the ball down. At QB you need to trust your arm more than your legs.

hehheh, I have to agree with you there. That NFC East “3 yards and a cloud of dust” thing is hard to shed.

McNabb has the toughness, certainly. He’s got more guts than he should when it comes to playing through pain. (I wonder if he didn’t lengthen his rehab time by finishing that game.) It’s the courage to stand there and take the free shot the blitzing LB is about to have in order to buy that last fraction of a second needed to get the ball downfield. McNair has finally crossed that threshold and will take the shot. McNabb isn’t there yet.

He’s trying to be Bill Belichek.

Also, football is a game of attrition. Two scrambles in the preseason cost both the Jets and the Falcons their entire seasons.

Are you seriously saying that a QB who throws short passes is “gutless” and that the 49ers did not have a “decent passing game?”

Why the hell should your “gut instinct” factor in at all when you’ve already admitted it was worthless?

Please explain how it is you can tell, without watching the game, that these are “dumpoffs” and not designed plays?

As in most West Coast systems, the Eagles have made screen passes a major component of their offense
Quarterback Donovan McNabb spreads it around the field with short passes and a lot of screens.

Now we get to it. He makes a lot of money, he’s better than your guy, and some meanies rubbed your nose in it. Do you want a blankie?

McNabb sucked the first few weeks of the season. No one, including him, denies that. Is this about his overall performance in the NFL, or in his worst stretch? Wait … lemme guess. When he throws a pick, that’s the real indicator, when he thropws 3 TDs, that’s luck, right?

Every one of those talking heads, including Jaworski, that were trashing him in September were praising him down the stretch. They were right both times, and it balances out to “very good.”

Sorry.

This guy, too if you prorate.

This guyand This guy don’t count, I suppose.

Saying that a scrambler can’t be a winning QB because so few champion QBs run a lot is fallacious for 2 reasons:

#1, for the same reason that few lefthanders win championships: there just aren’t as many of them. Until very recently, QBs who ran a lot were awfully rare. Part of that was bias by the coaches, part of that was a function of the style of play. Before the 1990s, there weren’t but a handful of guys who had ever done it. Of that small group, some were successful, some weren’t. If you have any actual evidence that having a scrambler makes a team less likely to win, show it.

And #2, no one is denying that the QB scrabling isn’t the first choice – guys who run a lot usually do so is because they have to. There are plenty of other guys who have been “scramblers” (using your 300-yard measure) when their teams needed them to, but who were also able to stay in the pocket if the team around them made it possible:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/ElwaJo00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BradTe00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/DawsLe00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/AndeKe00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/TheiJo00.htm

Clearly not. Joe Montana is one of the greatest of all time. I was doubly impressed by refreshing my memory on his rushing yardage, which I was cognizant of at the time but have subsequently halfway forgotten about. That friggin guy is just a winner through and through.

But what I said, and still maintain, is that a dumpoff to a running back is gutless, not a short pass. Slants take way more guts than dumpoffs. If it is a designed dumpoff, then the playcaller, and not the QB, is the one being gutless.

Are you so ignorant that you haven’t heard the term “high percentage pass”? Have you ever once stopped to think what that means? Wake up. Passing to a running back does not make you a great passer.

I never said it was worthless. It is my opinion. Are opinions not allowed in the Pit?

hehheh, you really think McNabb is a better passer than Collins? Dream on. I’d rather be 1-1 in NFC Championship games than 0-3. The reason McNabb doesn’t throw many picks is the system he is in. No West Coast QB ever throws many picks. The reason McNabb has yet to throw 3400 yards in a season is because of his tendency to run, which he is clearly beginning to outgrow. But he still has yet to crack 4000 yards, even if you count his rushing yards.

Depends on where the credit goes, but it’s almost never luck. Luck is a deflected pass caught by another receiver. And not sure why you are talking about picks anyway…I never brought them up; McNabb doesn’t throw them. It’s hard to get picked when you dink and dunk to your backs all day. As far as credit? I saw McNabb throw a couple great TD passes, but I also saw him throw more dumpoffs that the backs turned into TDs. Hard to credit McNabb for those, when Westbrook so clearly deserves the credit. What I’m basically saying is this:

McNabb has a propensity for bad reads; he is prone to ignoring or not seeing the smart play downfield to an open receiver and instead choosing either a) the safe dumpoff to a back or b) pulling down the ball and running. I suspect his athleticism is partly the reason he still doesn’t understand coverages well enough to mount an effective passing game. Why bother when he can just run? As evidence I point to the early part of the 2003 season, when pundits were in general agreement that this was a major factor in the Eagles poor play.

In other words, he occasionally sucks beyond belief, and “No one, including him, denies that.” So what is your beef?

The point about the scramblers being so rare is exagerated. Are you saying 10% of playoff teams are scrambling teams? If so, you are wrong. In fact, you are completely wrong.

Regarding actual evidence? Okay, how about comparing the following two numbers:

Of all playoff teams in history, since going to the 16 game schedule (when the NFL truly became a game of attrition):

of teams who rushed for 300+ yards at the QB position

of those teams who won the Superbowl

The three filters are 16 game seasons, only playoff teams, and 300+ rushing yards from the QB position. Citing a 400 yard scrambler on a 1-15 team wouldn’t be fair. But everyone in the playoffs has a chance to be a superbowl winner. The first number is probably dozens. The second number is 1. Steve Young and Joe Montana combined for 300+ and won the Superbowl. So 1 scrambling team wins it, and how many lose? 10? 20? 50? That’s my evidence.

Of note is the Young/Montana thing. Clearly, Montana was unable to play all 16 games. Too much scrambling? Who knows. But so they bring in Young, who is also great. Why can’t another team do this? Because of the salary cap. Paul Tagliabue, in discussing league parity, specifically cited the 49ers stockpiling both Montana and Young as something that they were trying to prevent.

So given that you must play 19 (or god forbid 20) games to win a superbowl, and that you cannot afford to keep two superstar QBs, what type of QB do you think will have the best chance to win a Superbowl? A scrambler who excels at high-percentage dumpoffs, or a downfield passer who excels at beating coverages from the pocket? (Whether that pocket is moving or not…rolling out is not scrambling.)

2003: 0-1 (Eagles)
2002: 0-4 (49ers, Eagles, Falcons, Titans)
2001: 0-3 (Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers)
2000: 0-6 (Bucs, Eagles, Raiders, Saints, Titans, Vikings)

Face it. You cannot win it all in today’s game with a scrambler. You must have a pocket passer. Until GM’s realize this, we’re going to be watching a lot of sideline shots of great athletic QBs in wheelchairs. Okay, that’s a cheap shot at Vick. More relevant as to why you cannot win it all with a scrambler is because odds are you will be facing a tough defense, and your QB had better be able to step up and make the clutch pass or you won’t have a chance. Maybe I’d be saying “except for McNair” after every sentence if he had thrown that pass into the end zone instead of 7 yards short of it.

Hey, look at that, you finally understand what I’m saying. Scrambling is a symptom of a problem. It’s something to correct, not something to aspire to. Elway had zero chance in any of his Superbowls until he started letting the back do the rushing. (He didn’t have a back until Davis, but neither did the Patriots in either of their 2 wins…oddly, they lost both superbowls when they had solid running backs.)

So I say that scrambling is a flawed paradigm. You can hem and haw all you want, but there have been plenty of chances for scramblers to win it all, and only a superteam managed to do it. And the days of superteams are over.

I also maintain that throwing a dumpoff to the running back when you have wide open WRs downfield is gutless.