Poll and discussion for Democratic/liberal/progressive voters: your early preference for 2020

[iiandyiiii]

One thing about charisma – Beto and Obama (and some others) have a specific kind of sweeping, epic, rousing, inspiring charisma. That can be extremely effective, but IMO it’s not the only kind of charisma that can be effective for a political campaign. I’m hopeful that Amy Klobuchar might have the type of charisma that LBJ and Jimmy Carter had – a sort of genuine (in feeling, anyway), down-home, personal-connection type of charisma. Bill Clinton had that too, but he’s in his own special category, and I don’t think any other politician, aside from maybe Ronald Reagan, could match his own special type of charisma.

But we won’t know until the campaign, assuming she runs.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

@iiandyiiii

One thing about charisma – Beto and Obama (and some others) have a specific kind of sweeping, epic, rousing, inspiring charisma. That can be extremely effective, but IMO it’s not the only kind of charisma that can be effective for a political campaign. I’m hopeful that Amy Klobuchar might have the type of charisma that LBJ and Jimmy Carter had – a sort of genuine (in feeling, anyway), down-home, personal-connection type of charisma. Bill Clinton had that too, but he’s in his own special category, and I don’t think any other politician, aside from maybe Ronald Reagan, could match his own special type of charisma.

But we won’t know until the campaign, assuming she runs.

If you’re looking for that personal-connection type charisma, from a midwesterner no less, I’d suggest looking at Sherrod Brown. He’s a solid union liberal from a rapidly-becoming-solidly-red state (+3R partisan lean), as opposed to Klobuchar, who’s a Democrat from a state that still goes blue.

At a time when Democrats aren’t doing so well in Ohio, Sherrod Brown’s apparently got a way of delivering his message that just resonates with those voters. He beat his Republican opponent by 6 points. That, to me, is more impressive than what Amy Klobuchar represents (and even her 24-point victory over her GOP opponent).

[iiandyiiii]

@Happy_Lendervedder

If you’re looking for that personal-connection type charisma, from a midwesterner no less, I’d suggest looking at Sherrod Brown. He’s a solid union liberal from a rapidly-becoming-solidly-red state (+3R partisan lean), as opposed to Klobuchar, who’s a Democrat from a state that still goes blue.

At a time when Democrats aren’t doing so well in Ohio, Sherrod Brown’s apparently got a way of delivering his message that just resonates with those voters. He beat his Republican opponent by 6 points. That, to me, is more impressive than what Amy Klobuchar represents (and even her 24-point victory over her GOP opponent).

You might be right, though based on my memory of Nate Silver’s analysis, Klobuchar had the best performance above expectations of any Senate candidate – even better than Brown’s. That’s based on the expected state “lean”.

But I like Brown fine, and if during the campaign I find Klobuchar’s political talent lacking, then I’ll consider Brown and other candidates.

[Darth_Sensitive]

I voted other.

I want Duckworth, even though it seems like she doesn’t. And I like Biden, except for the age issue.

After that, I’m swayable, but with some negative preferences.

[iiandyiiii]

Doh! I should have included Duckworth.

[KidCharlemagne]

Biden or Beto to win. Klobuchar is, unfortunately, too nice ( I hate that that’s a thing). I cringed when she didn’t say anything of a hundred lines that could have put Kavanaugh in his place during his confirmation when he asked if she had a drinking problem. I think Trump would just eat her up.

[Darth_Sensitive]

@iiandyiiii

Doh! I should have included Duckworth.

I’ve been consistenly surprised by nobody at 538 taking a late round flyer on her. Has she been vocal about not planning to run?

[Celidin]

Booker/Beto 2020! I used to be Biden/Booker. And still would vote for Biden … but I’ve recently become very dead-set against anyone over 65 running for Prez. It’s time for the baby boomer generate to retire and move on.

So -

Booker because he’s a superhero. And smart. And relatively young. And decently experienced. And somewhat centrist. And will help re-energize some of that Obama magic.

Beto because he’s young. And smart. And from Texas. And would be a nice counterbalance to Booker in many ways.

[choie]

Biden, for now, because I think he should be president now. It of course depends on his health, but I’m betting his health will be equal to that of Trump’s, so it’s a wash.

Second choice is Sherrod Brown. Strong candidate, doing a solid job.

If you look in the dictionary for the word “meh,” you’ll find Amy Klobuchar’s image. She is not going to be our first female president. Good politics but the personality of a dishrag. I will happily be wrong if she actually starts showing some life the longer she’s in congress.

Actually, my first choice is the person she took over from. I would still vote for Al Franken today, tomorrow, and any other damn time. I think the charges against him were hyped-up, Jerome-Corsi-Swift-Boat-level bullshit and he was gracious and cautious in the extreme to back out for the sake of the party. But they were unsubstantiated accusations and one photo where he wasn’t even touching the woman, and he was a comedian at the time, and yes, stupid and bad taste but not fucking relevant to anything at all he’s done as a political figure. The role he played in the Senate was far, far more important, and I still feel nauseous over the intelligence, strength, acerbity and compassion that we lost when he left the Senate. NO ONE has taken his place.

Oh, and BTW, that’s why Gilibrand can kiss my fat ass. If she’s the final nominee, yeah, I’ll vote for her, because I’m not stupid and she’s better than Trump. Until then, she doesn’t get my New Yorker vote, not for Senator, not for anything.

[XT]

Steve Bullock, though I’m not sure of his stance on a few things (gun control). But he seems relatively moderate, at least on a thumb nail inspection. I honestly don’t know most of the folks on the list, and the ones I do are generally more progressive than I’d like. I do plan to vote Democrat in the next election, so pretty much anyone running against Trump will almost certainly get my vote on the D ticket. Trump et al have finally made most of my family very happy as it’s forced me into becoming a reluctant Democrat (and it’s pissed off the rest :p).

[Chronos]

Steve Bullock, though I’m not sure of his stance on a few things (gun control).

He’s a Montanan. Therefore, you can be sure of his stance on gun control.

Which, mind you, does not necessarily tell you his stance on the NRA.

[Lamoral]

I do NOT believe that O’Rourke can get it done in the general election against Trump. You saw it here first - mark my words, Beto (if nominated) will lose. Nominating him would be a disaster and a horrific strategic blunder. I’ll explain my reasoning for thinking so:

Trump is great at playing off of his opponents’ weak points. Beto’s biggest weak point is his youth and lack of experience.

Trump has demonstrated consistently that he is good at turning his opponents into one-dimensional “characters.” I know it’s obnoxious. I know it’s juvenile. I am aware that we all don’t like it and that only his supporters do. But his supporters are a force to be reckoned with and Trump is good at getting them fired up.

As Cruz became “Lyin’ Ted”, Rubio became “Little Marco”, and Clinton became “Crooked Hillary”, Beto running against Trump would become “Baby Beto” (I am virtually certain this is the appellation he’d wind up with.)

It isn’t so much that Democrats or undecided voters would say, “hmmm, Trump calls Beto an inexperienced little baby…I guess I better vote for Trump then.” It’s that Trump would create this caricature of O’Rourke who he would proceed to ruthlessly mock, and it would get his supporters extremely motivated to vote against him.

It wouldn’t matter that Beto would be nearly 50 at the time of the election. He looks young; he is well liked by young people, which is something that Trump would demonize (“stupid millennials and their stupid hero worship of their little punk-rock heartthrob” would be a blunt way to sum up the narrative). The Republican base would come out in force to vote against who they would perceive as an insolent upstart.

This same situation could not possibly happen with, say, Sherrod Brown, who I am convinced at this point is probably the Democrats’ best bet. I used to think it was Biden, but talk on this very board motivated me to look up Brown and watch videos of him and from what I’ve seen, I think he has the grit and attitude that’s necessary to take on Trump in 2020. Brown is almost - in personality if not in principle - a younger and more Midwestern version of Bernie Sanders, in the sense that he’s gruff, somewhat cantakerous, speaks with great conviction, and could get blue collar people excited.

I can’t see Beto getting blue collar people excited. I also can’t see him getting black people excited. This is not a good combination of demographics (which overlap to some degree) to not be able to get excited.

[Siam_Sam]

I would vote Biden just because I want a president who can smash Chump in the face and drag his sorry ass out into the street when he refuses to concede.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

The other potential candidate I’d consider right now, not on the list, would be Mitch Landrieu. I know, I know, he’s just a former mayor from a mid-sized city. But there’s just something about a big bald southern white guy, with executive experience, who isn’t afraid to call racists racist, that appeals to me.

Even if he doesn’t make it to the final dance, I’d love to see him on the stage. We need candidates like him adding their voice to the mix.

[sweepkick]

@iiandyiiii

IMO, Klobuchar seems almost the exact opposite of Hillary, at least in many important ways – no big national profile, no decades-long hate-campaign against her, almost universally well liked by both sides, and no national political “machine”.

Well, she did refuse to answer Kavanaugh’s questions about whether she had ever blacked out while drinking.

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it until Election Day in 2020 - the key to a Democrat winning in 2020 will be nominating someone who can keep the states HRC carried and bring Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania back to the blue column. Forget about Florida and deal with the fact Texas is just a dream at this point. There is no liberal from either coast who is going to appeal to the voters in those four states other than Biden but his age is a serious concern. I still think the smart move would be Sherrod Brown. Maybe Amy Klobuchar even though she’s from Minnesota. I would include Bob Casey but his position on abortion will kill his chances.

I could be wrong on the names here but I will stick by the idea that a liberal from the East or West Coast will keep most of those states in the GOP column come 2020.

And Beto would get destroyed.

[foolsguinea]

Just one?

I picked Warren because she had no votes yet and Sherrod Brown had four. I guess I’d put those two at the top of my list.

(And yeah, Biden and Bernie are a bit too old now.)

[Snowboarder_Bo]

I know he’s not in the poll but today he was in the press:

“Our job is to do exactly the opposite of what Trump is trying to do. He is trying to divide us,” Sanders told scores of high-profile supporters at an intimate gathering in Vermont’s largest city. He continued: “Our job is to bring people together around a strong progressive agenda.”

In his welcome address, Sanders highlighted a shift among the Democratic establishment which has increasingly embraced his calls for liberal policies like universal health care and a $15 minimum wage. He said that’s just the beginning.

Progressives should start talking more about “building millions of affordable housing units” and providing “affordable, quality child care,” he said.

He acknowledged that Democratic leaders must work harder to break through an increasingly divided electorate.

“We have got to make sure that the Democratic Party isn’t just the party of the East Coast and the West Coast, it’s a party of every state in this country,” Sanders said.

I don’t think he’ll run; I know I’d have a hard time voting for a 79 or 80 year old person for POTUS, but I’m cool with seeing him still involved.

[septimus]

This would have made a better Pick 3 poll than a Pick 1. (I suppose there’s no way to make a Pick 3? It would have to be Pick up to 17?)

My vote put Brown into tied for the lead! My 2nd choice, Klobuchar, would have put her into tie. (I didn’t peak first.) But as others say, it’s too early to have a very informed opinion.

Also tied for the lead is Joe Biden. He’d be one of my top choices if he were 4 years younger. But, as I wrote elsewhere, “Eighty might be the new Seventy. It is NOT the new Sixty.”

ETA:

@Snowboarder_Bo

I know he’s not in the poll but today he was in the press.

Sanders IS listed, just not where you’d expect. The list seems to be very roughly in order of popularity or bookie odds. Has Sanders dropped down at Betfair?

[septimus]

@Snowboarder_Bo

Sanders IS listed, just not where you’d expect. The list seems to be very roughly in order of popularity or bookie odds. Has Sanders dropped down at Betfair?

Here are the most likely nominees in order according to Predictit:
Harris
Sanders
Biden
Klobuchar
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Winfrey
(They don’t display an O’Rourke contract. The Brown they show is Jerry, not Sherrod.)

The Betfair numbers are less easy to read, and perhaps less meaningful but are very roughly:
O’Rourke
Harris
Biden
Warren
Sanders
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Brown, S.
Booker