Ok so my primary is today and I’m still totally unsure of who I want to vote for. I don’t really care about the Democratic vote–they’ll vote for whoever gets the nomination. So I want to vote for whoever has the best chance of getting fence-sitters, Independants, and Republicans to vote for them. Is there any poll data out there that might be vaguely relevant?
How about this? Not exactly what you asked for, but somewhat relevant. In this CNN/USA Today, Gallup poll, likely voters (not just conservatives!) were asked whether they preferred Bush or X. The results:
Bush 49% v. Kerry 48%
Bush 50% v. Edwards 46%
Bush 51% v. Clark 46%
Bush 53% v. Dean 43%
The poll had a margin of error of +/-4%, so the Kerry, Clark, and Edwards numbers are basically identical.
While you are unliely to pick up anything worth talking about in the way of conservative votes, Republican me thinks Edwards would be your the best choice. Kerry and Clark are not, to my eye, good canidates and will collapse in the campaign (and they like to lie about their records), and Kerry especially has done everything he can to piss off the whole south, though he might win anyway. Dean ouldn’t be bad but the media stabbed him a hundred times in the back over this ridiculous flap about his speach after NH. Edwards is left by default, but he’s so bland I’m not sure he has good long-term chances, either.
Given the givens, if I were a Demo or lived in a caucus state I’d vote for Sharpton. At least he’s straight up and understands how truly comical the whole process is. He’d never win but he’d change American politics a bit. And hey, for all that I think he’s a bastard in the same line as Jesse Jackson, he’s at least up front about who he his and what he stands for. Strange but true.
I ended up voting for Kerry. Most people I talked to agreed that at least the data we have right now seems to indicate a tiny edge, and that was enough to tip the balance for me… hell it’s only the primaries, and it’s only one vote.
CNN, and most other major news sites, have exit poll results posted for each primary. [Example: CNN Virginia.]
There, you can find out fascinating tidbits like:
Overall: Kerry 50, Edwards 28, Clark 10
“Moderate” voters (self-identified): Kerry 56, Edwards 24
“Conservative” voters (self-identified): Kerry 40, Edwards 35
Republicans: Kerry 13, Edwards 45, Clark 16
Independents: Kerry 41, Edwards 31, Clark 13
So it appears, in VA at least, that Edwards draws strongest from Republicans, though Clark’s numbers increase by about the same factor.
(All numbers are for the in-progress VA primary, currently based on about 1700 responses, so if they’ve changed, don’t blame me, blame the inexorable forward progression of time.)