Okay I’m going to try to post my little poll. Imagine you’ve got $100 cyberbucks, no more, no less. You’re betting on who you think will be the Democratic nominee. The poll (if I do this right) has my own odds on various candidates. As I see it, everyone is an underdog at this point, thought Hillary is almost even-odds. You can put all $100 down on one person, or bet on several candidates. We’re going to see who’s prescient.
Or maybe we won’t see who’s prescient-- It looks like the poll is anonymous.
Interestingly, it looks like my choices are exactly complementary to whoever was first (prr?), at least out of the first six. I went with a split between Schweitzer, Cuomo, and Other.
Hmm–I tried to make it not anonymous. And seem to have succeeded. You’ve voted and so has **Martin Hyde **so far.
I didn’t vote yet.
I guess I was also hoping that if you split your vote (or even if you didn’t) you’d explain how your cyberbucks were apportioned here, and maybe a little about your reasoning.
OK, then, let’s call it $50 on “other”, and $25 each on Schweitzer and Cuomo.
Click on one the linked numbers. It’ll show you everyone who’s posted.
I think you’ve overestimated Clinton’s chances and underestimated everyone else’s. And that reflects the way a lot of people will bet.
Let’s say you think Clinton has a 60% chance of being nominated and Cuomo has a 40% chance. You think Clinton is the likelier nominee but Cuomo is a much better bet.
Huh, I thought I’d tried that. In any event, it works now.
None of the above?
There’s an “other” option in the poll. Do you have any names in mind for whom you think it’ll be, or do you just think it’ll be a generic dark horse?
I think it’s going to be Hillary. In my more whimsical moments, I hope it will be Cuomo, even though he kind of sucks, just because that would make Sandra Lee the First Lady and the state dinners would be wonderful, wonderful train wrecks.
I’d bet the whole bank plus my left kidney on Hillary. The Clintons eat and drink politics. They are the most power hungry couple on Earth. Hillary didn’t just put on a Yankee ballcap and run for US Senator as a tourist in New York, then run for POTUS, and then take the Secretary of State gig after she lost the 2008 nomination just so she could call it a day ride into retirement. As long as she’s alive and healthy enough, HRC will run and be nominated.
Well, “alive and healthy enough” is a factor. Even if she is, she’s going to need some sparring partners, and those sparring partners will need the exposure to gain name recognition for future runs, so she will definitely have some primary opponents, and she wants to have some. On some level, that is exactly the use she saw for Obama in 2008–nice young lightweight she can beat the hell out of–and he slipped her a good hard right, and then a left, and then another left, and she was down for the count.
So you can’t really make her a heavy favorite, since she hasn’t announced yet and any number of things could make her decide not to (health issues, a major unforeseen gaffe), and then after she announces, someone could just take off like Obama did. Both are unlikely, but both are definitely real. After she announces, I would make her a favorite (maybe as large as 2-1) but I would not go any higher.
I’ve got $75 on Cuomo and $25 on O’Malley. Both governors, both young, both semi-well-known.
HRC and Biden aren’t going to run, I think.
Schweitzer would, I think, have the best shot in the general since he’s the most moderate, but I don’t think he’ll run nor do I think he’d get the nomination.
The rest of them have a snowball’s chance in hell.
I split my money between Cuomo and “other”. I think there are fair odds that Hillary will run, although it’s no sure thing; but even so I don’t think she’d win this time. The Democratic base keeps getting younger and I don’t see them running someone who will be into their 70s by the end of their first term. This also means no Biden, although I think he’s even more likely to run than Hillary is.
Whoever the nominee is will be of the next (Obama’s) generation, that’s my prediction.
I’m gonna split my vote 50/50 between HRC and “Other”. The other I have in mind is Jay Nixon, another moderate governor, but there are plenty of other possibilities as well. Nixon hasn’t really done much in the silent primary, though, and is probably more suited for VP consideration at this point.
First up, prr’s odds, once converted to probabilities, sum to less than 1, so there’s a play where you can come out a buck or three ahead no matter who wins.
But getting past that, I really see the possible winners limited to Hillary, Biden, O’Malley, Cuomo, and Schweitzer. I’m assuming the strength of the field will scare away most of the lesser names, especially if they can afford to wait until 2024, and make it hard for those who do run to get any money.
So I’m putting $70 on Hillary, $8 each on Cuomo and O’Malley, $9 on Biden, and $5 on Schweitzer. That gives me payoffs in the $30-$36 range if any of Cuomo, Biden, and Schweitzer win, $57.50 if Hillary wins, and $108 if O’Malley wins.
I changed my mind since voting
Lets say $44 on Clinton (so I break even if she wins)
$20 on Cuomo
$20 on Other
$8 each on Warner and Omalley
That puts me equal or ahead as long as a real longshot on your list doesn’t win.
By the way your odds only account for 96.6% of the field so you are giving a 3.4% edge to the punters. You might want to reconsider your career as a bookie.
Beat ya to it!
Looking at the potential nominees, I think it’s almost inevitable that whichever two people gets the nominations, the Democrat will be the moderate one.