Yep, and I’ll throw in a right kidney just so everything is symmetrical.
Can one of you smart bettors teach me how to allot my $100 cyber bucks so I’m guaranteed to win a few dollars?
Better yet, can you tell me how to adjust the odds I worked up so they come out to exactly 100% ? I was just guesstimating or eyeballing. How could I change “other” so it works out to exactly 100%?
If you changed the Other from 13 to 2 down to 5 to 1, you would cover 99.936% of the field so only giving away about 7 cyber cents per transaction. You can even this last bit out by saying that there is a 1 in a thousand chance that there is no nominee in which case you pocket all bets.
Switching to GQ:
To work this out, count each bet possibility of x to y odds as y/(x+y). At totally even odds this will be equal 1. If it is less than one then the bettor can always make a profit. If its greater than or equal to one then the profit for the bookie depends on how well he set the odds.
This way guarantees winning at least $1.00.
$45 on Clinton (a win gets you $101.25)
$14 on Other (a win gets you $105)
$7 on Biden (a win gets you $105)
$7 on Cuomo (a win gets you $112)
$4 x 3 the 25 to 1 shots (a win gets you $104)
$2 x 6 on the 50 to 1 shots (a win gets you $102)
$1 x 3 on each of the 100 to 1 shots (a win gets you $101)
I chose Hickenlooper just because I like the name.
President Hickenlooper!!
Now if we can get Schweitzer on the ticket…
Hasn’t done him much harm in getting to be Mayor or Governor Hickenlooper
Oh please.
If Hillary is breathing she’s the nominee.*
Though it might be well to keep on eye on Hickenlooper.
*and even if she isn’t, I wouldn’t put it past the party to run the corpse.
Oh, Sherrod Brown. I was thinking of Jerry Brown. Really, Brown is way too common a name.
I don’t know anything about O’Malley or Hickenlooper, can’t say.
I didn’t vote Biden because I don’t think he’s going to run. I voted Hilary because I think she is, and I’m pretty sure she’d win if she did.
That said, if you’re going to offer 100-1 odds on Rahm Emanuel, I’d throw a few bucks his way.
What is the appeal of Clinton to democrats? Other than giving them the opportunity to smugly pat themselves on the back for electing a woman to the presidency?
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We liked the first Clinton administration (I didn’t vote for him in '92 or '96, but he was popular in general).
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We’re impressed with her competence.
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2-for-1 seems like a better deal now than it was in the 1990s
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She’s going to hit the ground running: no one’s ever had less OJT to do to get up to speed.
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Most Dems (not me) felt in 2008 that either she or Obama would be fine choices, so most of us have already vetted her sufficiently for our purposes.
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Even the Dems who didn’t like her in '08 feel that she’s done a good job as SoS and now has earned the nomination
Add to that 7) She’s currently the most popular political figure in the country.
I don’t hate Hillary, but I think the Democrats need to develop their bench instead of assuming she’s going to be in physical or neurological condition to serve in four years. 2016 is pretty late for a baby boomer to take the Presidency. Secretary of State is a very good career capper.
Yeah i heard the same thing about reagan and he gave us eight great years, Hillary has a democratic reagan feel to it.
I have no worries about Clinton’s age, women live longer than men anyway. If you’re worried about a man once he gets to be about 70, then the time to worry about a woman is 80.
I also have no worries about Clinton as President. I believe the Clinton presidency was basically a triad Presidency(Bill/Hillary/Gore) from the books I’ve read on the subject, and we’ll get two of those three if we send them back to the White House.
However, I have this feeling that she won’t win. She’s just too cautious, too by the book. She let an insurgent candidate outwit her, and she’s shown no evidence that she’s learned anything. Take the recent coming out in favor of gay marriage. One of the last Democrats to the join the bandwagon. I think Rob Portman coming out in favor was what finally caused her to speak up. But she’ll run in 2016 like the safe, predictable candidate who doesn’t take any chances, and if there are any electrifying Democrats out there with her on the trail, she’ll get beat again.
How’s your track record on predicting election results working out for you?
Fine except for last year. How’d you do in 2010?
Oh, the only year we have a track record for you, that’s the one year you fucked the pooch? What rotten luck.
I’m sure a veteran Doper would know not to draw sweeping conclusions about my political acumen from one year. I’ve been doing this for 12 years on other boards, and I’ll admit, the guy I picked to win the general has lost every damn time. Kerry, McCain, and Romney. However, for what it’s worth, I’ve been great at picking primary winners and this thread is about the primaries. So PPPPTTTHHHHH!!!