With training camp opening tomorrow, it’s a pivotal season for Bears QB Justin Fields. And, while no one expects the Bears to be serious contenders this year, it’s a key season for the team, too, because they could be on the verge of something that’s eluded the team for generations – a true franchise quarterback.
Last year, Fields displayed some tantalizing talent, but also some serious deficiencies in his passing game. Surrounded by a lack of talent on both sides of the ball, he “led” the Bears to the league’s worst record.
This year, he’s got better talent around him and is no longer learning a brand new system. So what’s going to happen?
Fields will show a ton of growth and establish himself as the Bears’ franchise QB
Fields will continue to struggle passing, and the Bears will draft a new QB next year
Fields will get hurt or otherwise fail to provide a conclusive answer about his future
0voters
So what do you think? Vote now, and let’s see how our views look as the season progresses.
I voted by what I think is most realistic, which is he gets injured. But with DJ Moore being an important part of my fantasy team, I’m fervently hoping that he will ball out.
I chose the first option but I think it’ll be between 1 and 2. He’ll play better but there will still need to improve until he’s considered the future.
I think the Bears will be vastly improved this year over last. The team made a lot of steps to strengthen the defense and give Fields better protection and better options to throw to.
Last year, Fields was either reading his options too fast or scrambling for his life. He should be doing that less this year and with more experience in the system and more familiarity with the playbook and targets, we’ll see some big improvement on the offensive side.
Of course, I’ve been wrong before so take everything I said with a grain of salt.
I agree, but I’m resolving to not panic if the first 2-3 games aren’t great. Four of the starting five offensive linemen are in new positions or on new teams from last season, so the protection may not be a vast upgrade immediately.
Like others, I chose #1 but I think that’s a bit too optimistic. But #2 and #3 are too pessimistic.
I don’t think Fields is going to fail so hard that the Bears decide they have to start over next season. With their picks there’s a solid chance they could be drafting in the top 3 again and if there’s a generational talent available, they might take one. But I don’t think Fields is bad enough that they go into next draft needing to take one.
Fields might get hurt, in fact it’s likely he’ll miss time due to his running game and a still WIP O-line, but I don’t think an injury will be such that he gets an “incomplete” for his season grade. That would require a Trey Lance-esque early season catastrophe and so far, he’s proven to be pretty durable.
On the other hand, he probably won’t perform well enough to be Pro Bowl caliber and anything short of that would make crowning his as the franchise QB a bit insane. You know, like saying “Rex is our QB”. I think the supporting cast is going to be a lot better, specifically the receiving corps, and Fields’ downfield passing will get better as a result. More time in the system and some improvements on the OL should also help him make more sophisticated reads and throws. But his accuracy and ability to diagnose coverages and blitzes aren’t going to magically transform into elite levels. It’s going to take another couple seasons of stability and roster support.
That’s probably what a lot of people said about Jalen Hurts this time last year.
I’m not so deluded that I think Fields is definitely on Hurts’ trajectory. (Especially since the Bears are nowhere near as talented as the Eagles.) But I believe it’s possible. And if he shows the kind of progress from year 2-3 that Hurts did (or Josh Allen, for that matter) he’ll establish himself as the guy to build around. And the Bears haven’t had that guy since, well, Sid Luckman.
Hurts was better in 2021 than Fields was in 2022. The Eagles also have a MUCH better roster. If Fields got to Hurts level, or even Pro Bowl level, with this roster…it will be one of the most ridiculous year 3 jumps in history.
That said, some of the various advanced analytics and scouting on Fields in 2022 suggest that he’s a much better downfield passer than the stats indicate. His production was poor but they suggest almost all the blame is on the OL and WRs. Fields was actually very efficient when he had a clean pocket and a WR on schedule. But I think play charts like these need to be taken with a grain of salt.
It’s really hard to know how good he is, or can be. His rookie season was a total write-off – thrust into an ill-suited offense under an incompetent coach. So last season he had to unlearn a lot of bad habits while throwing to the weakest WRs in the league and getting crappy protection – and he still at times looked like a truly dangerous QB.
That’s why I see this year as so pivotal. He has no more excuses. If there’s a franchise QB in there, we’ll see it this year – and if we don’t, there isn’t.
Of course he will still have people making excuses for him. He’s established himself as an elite running QB, and, barring injury or defensive adjustments (I expect many), he’ll likely retain those skills. Hell, Lamar Jackson won the NFL MVP despite leading the 27th ranked passing offense. Fields, if he somehow can get close to Jackson’s unbelievable 9% TD percentage from that year, can do that too. He has a high floor, even if he continues to struggle passing the ball. And, as long as he has those splash running plays, he’ll have plenty of fans making excuses for him, ala Colin Kaepernick.
By excuses, I mean excuses for not being an effective QB, not for not putting up conventional stats or playing in a conventional style.
Jackson, when healthy, is a very effective QB. Even if his stats don’t align with other more conventional QBs, few think the Ravens would be better off with someone else.
Fields has not been an effective QB. The Bears have rarely won with him, and he’s never won a game where the team trailed in the last two minutes. If you knew nothing about his situation, you might label him a bust and believe the Bears should find a new QB. But that’s where the excuses come in – bad coaching, poor protection, lousy WRs, etc.
If he still can’t win now that those excuses have been mitigated, it will be fair to call him a bust.
At least the Bears did something about their WRs. The Giants appeared to just reshuffle the deck chairs.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m pretty happy about Darren Waller – though I kind of like Daniel Bellinger – but Jesus Christ, can they get an actual WR1 in the house? I pine for the days of having a guy like Plaxico Burress.
Wins and losses are a horrible metric for determining the “bustness” of a young QB. Hell, Mitch Trubisky, who I think clearly fits the definition of bust, went 11-3 and made a Pro Bowl. Regardless of whether the Bears go 5-12 or 12-5, Field’s play on the field will determine whether he’s a bust or not.
True that. But that said, it’s hard to envision crowning Fields as a franchise QB if the Bears go 3-14 again. The team around him is objectively better. If he improves as many expect, they should be at least a 7-win team.
Saying wins are a meaningless stat for a QB is an overstatement. Certainly, there are guys like Dilfer, King and Kaepernick who won a lot of games on the back of a great defense and running game. But there are also tons of QBs with great empty stats and bad records. Managing a game and executing in crunch time is a skill and you can’t be a good-great QB if you aren’t finding ways to win. I’m sure there’s a few examples of guys out there putting up elite QB performances who are getting kneecapped by their head coaches and defenses, but they are outliers.
(Bolding mine) Fields was dismal in crunch time last year. So many NFL games come down to the last two minutes, and if he can’t demonstrate that he knows how to win them he can’t stake a claim as being the guy.
