Poll’s closed! 42% of us believe Fields will establish himself as the Bears’ franchise QB, while 23% think he’ll prove to be a flop and leave the Bears (once again) needing a new QB.
The truth will begin to emerge Sunday against the hated Packers.
In talking with a friend of mine (who is a big Vikings fan) this morning, I remarked that we have “Schroedinger’s NFC North” this year: all four teams could turn out to be pretty good this season, or could be terrible, and we just won’t know until we open the box.
I’m a bit surprised that the “we won’t know by season end” option didn’t win. The great thing about being a first round QB is you usually have years before you have to actually produce results. I don’t see some enormous breakout passing wise for Fields this year (like Josh Allen had in his 3rd year), but he’ll improve some with DJ Moore there. And his running ability won’t be as eye popping as last year, but still be good. Huge steps forward generally don’t happen to young QBs, and I’d be surprised if by years end the Bears are either thrilled by Fields or ready to give up on him. He’ll be in that huge group of NFL QBs that aren’t elite, but offer enough potential to keep the team from cutting ties completely.
I didn’t see the game, but the Lions beating KC in KC bodes well for them.
This article compiled an interesting stat line – the average of 3rd-year QBs starting at least 14 games since 2015:
- Passing yards: 3859
- Completion %: 65.7
- TDs: 25
- Ints: 10
Only one Bears QB (Erik Kramer, 1995) ever has had those numbers for a single season! By contract, Justin Herbert has blown them away every year. If Fields doesn’t get close to them, he’s below average for 3rd-year QBs, and that could be strong evidence that he’s not the guy.
I feel like Daniel Jones is currently the poster boy for this group.
I also feel like you’re missing the word “just.” As in, “but offer just enough potential…”
Jay Cutler Disease. 
Just call ‘em The Smokers.
Just checked my fantasy point total this week and noticed DJ Moore scored a measly 3.9. My immediate thought was: “Look how they massacred my boy.”
Yeah … I had cautioned myself to not expect too much, because of the shakily rebuilt offensive line, but that was way worse than I expected. The whole team stank, Fields included.
Trying not to read too much into one game, but it’s an early red flag for Fields – and maybe this coaching staff.
It’s the development of a young QB. Last year, Getsy realized that Fields wasn’t ready to run a traditional NFL offense, and changed the way it was run to give Fields more scripted running plays and to allow him to scramble more often. That got the team some really good stats for Fields … and not many wins. It appears after just one game this season that maybe Fields isn’t developed enough as a passer yet and maybe forcing him him back into a typical NFL offense is a work in progress.
The more obvious thing I noticed was that the Packers played to stop Fields’ running ability. The D linemen didn’t just charge at the pocket to get a sack, and instead pushed upfield, but kept in their lanes to make sure Fields’ wouldn’t have many openings to run. And the LBs were also keeping contain. It appears that Packers learned from last year and were intent on stopping his running. That may be the plan for all Bears’ opponents this year.
The Bears seemed to go through this whole thing with Pro Bowl QB Mitchell Trubisky (it still cracks me up that he made the Pro Bowl). Trubisky was great and found short term success with his legs, but couldn’t actually run an offense. The Bears (and Fields himself) now have to see if Fields is the next Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen or the next Mitch Trubisky.
I think I’ve asked this before, but how often does a QB spend a few years pretty mediocre and then actually becomes a good QB? I mean, these are all amazing QBs, but I’m saying by NFL standards. I know some QBs win it all after spending a decade bouncing around, but that’s often because of an amazing defense or some star RBs.
So, how many more years before Fields can be written off?
Almost never. The odd Ryan Tannehill or Geno Smith aside, if a QB isn’t making it happen by year 3 it’s a virtual certainty that he never will.
Mediocre QBs have won Super Bowls this century – Brad Johnson with Tampa Bay, Trent Dilfer with Baltimore – but as you said, they had all-world defenses.
Yeah, that’s what I figured.
Another example might be Rich Gannon, who slugged around as a journeyman and sometimes-starter for twelve seasons and three teams (Vikings, Redskins, Chiefs) before going to the Raiders in 1999, at age 34, where he reeled off four straight Pro Bowls, two All-Pro awards, and an MVP award.
But, that was now 20+ years ago, and I’m not sure that a 34-year-old quarterback would get that same kind of opportunity today.
Best example, actually – I forgot about him, even though his Raiders lost to Johnson’s Bucs in the Super Bowl. And all three of those guys had their heyday, as you mentioned, 20+ years ago.
Since then? Joe Flacco won one Super Bowl with the Ravens, and he’s no Hall of Famer. Mediocre Super Bowl losers include Jake Delhomme with Carolina, Rex Grossman with the Bears, and Jimmy Garappolo with the 49ers. Just about all the other winning and losing QBs I can recall off the top of my head were among the best in the league that year.
I think Rich Gannon showed the marked improvement on the Raiders thanks to the West Coast Offense.
Nick Foles. Matthew Stafford. Jimmy G. Cam Newton. Jared Goff. Colin Kaepernick. And, the poster boy for Super Bowl QBs that werent the best, Eli Manning.
Wasn’t Cam Newton MVP?
Good catch.
EDIT: Wrong thread.