There’s a famous chart (featured in this article) that details the relative value of each pick in the NFL Draft for trading purposes. It actually gives a pretty good idea of the approximate value that teams place on being in certain spots, but one could reach some ridiculous conclusions from it, particularly when comparing the very top picks to mid-late round selections. For example, Gregg Easterbrook today pointed out that, according to the chart, it would take about 375 7th Round picks to acquire the 1st overall selection. Easterbrook says it would be much better to have those 375 7th Rounders, but I’m not so sure: aside from the fact that there probably won’t be an NFL Draft 375 years from now, most of those picks in the 7th (and final) Round of the draft would represent players that any team would be able to sign afterwards as undrafted free agents.
My preferred ridiculous yardstick is 4th Round picks. According the the chart, it would take approximately forty-two 4th Rounders to acquire the #1 pick. Now that would be a great deal for the team at the top of the draft. So, my question is this:
Assume that you’re the owner of the NFL team with the #1 pick in the draft. Also assume that you’re only in your twenties (i.e., that you’re interested in the very-long-term interests of your team). What is the minimum number of future 4th Round picks you’d need in exchange for first pick in the draft?
I’m going to say 24.