Poll: Will SCOTUS rule that Trump's tax returns must be released?

Supposedly the decision is to be announced tomorrow.

Which do you believe?

  • Only Congress will get the returns.
  • Only the state of New York will get the returns.
  • Both will get the returns.
  • Neither will get the returns.
  • Something else.

0 voters

I voted only New York will get the returns.

HOWEVER, the statement released today by the Court only said the remaining opinions that are ready will be released tomorrow. The use of the word ready could mean they are punting those decisions until after the election. There is still one other case not related to Trump taxes that needs to be released.

Interesting. That would be a real kick in the pants but wouldn’t surprise me at all.

The SCOTUS has been so politicalized that it is hard to say.
I do expect at the maximum that there will be no information released to the public, but it may be released to some entity but wrapped in a gag order of some sort.

It doesn’t matter. Even if the court rules Trump must turn over his records, he won’t.

I voted neither. I hope I’m wrong – the congressional request is so obviously legal and within their powers that SCOTUS siding with Trump will be an obviously political result and essentially a constitutional crisis. Trump’s claim is that everything about him is immune to any subpoenas, and that can’t really be the right result.

I voted “something else”. Out of all the possibilities, the one with the plurality of the chance is that they kick the can until closer to or even after the election.

Except that it wouldn’t be Trump turning over his records. The suits are by the State of New York and the House of Representatives against Mazars (Trump’s accounting firm) and Deutsche Bank for an order for them to dish the records, which they have said they will do if the courts make a final ruling that they should. Trump sued to stop them. If the court rules that the records must be delivered, then it doesn’t seem like there’s anything more that Trump can do to prevent that.

But… We’ll see if he comes up with something!

I voted New York gets them, Congress does not. I suspect the reasoning will be that answering the Congress question is a political matter, and hence they won’t. They’ll say if Congress has a problem with the president’s behavior the remedy is impeachment. For New York, it’ll be 5-4 but state the president is not immune from state criminal investigation.

SCOTUS has surprised me a couple of times already this Term, so I’m really hopeful they’ll order a release of the tax returns, but I think it’s more likely they’ll allow Trump to keep them secret so as not to have them be a big political issue in the midst of a presidential election year - with the court credited/blamed for making them so.


I think that both are going to be released. I believe that the argument that incumbent presidents cannot be investigated is preposterous.

Welp, all 9 justices agreed that no sitting president is immune to subpoenas.

But, they’re punting this back to the local district courts.

So no one’s seeing his financials anytime soon… but it’s still a good legal loss for Trump.

Here’s CNN on the breaking story: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/supreme-court-trump-decision-07-09-20/index.html

Even Kavanaugh and Gorsuch voted with the majority. Color me surprised.

Does this mean I “win”? :woozy_face:

So, I guess the answer is that only NY State will get the returns? I was wrong on that front, since I thought neither would.

Arguably, given 26 USC 6103, Congress had a better statutory claim to see the tax returns, but this is fine with me. I just hope the lower courts don’t dick around with the case now and then say, in a month or two, “Oh, it’s too close to the election for us to issue some bombshell ruling now.”

I voted “something else” because I was curious to see the vote and the results are apparently not visible unless you vote.

As the decisions were already out when I voted this vote should be disregarded.

ETA: I think “something else” would have been the right vote in any case, however. One and possibly both of them will probably get at least some of the documents eventually, but not right away.