After seeing some discussion about how the polls in Iraq show a degree of satisfaction of the common Iraqis with the US governance or invasion… it dawned on me how pointless it is. When you invade a country… either you pacify it violently, create a puppet government or you get some elites in power that will take control for you.
The common man in Iraq unless he really likes the americans won't risk life and limb to help out the invasion. He will in general follow a consensus or a leader. Factions and tribes are what will determine if the Invasion will be pacific or not. In Afghanistan the Warlords had more to win by letting the Taliban fall. So they played along. Local powerbrokers obviously don't see eye to eye with the CPA... or the CPA hasn't made an attempt at courting them.
So if a poll says 50% are happy... but their leaders and power brokers aren't... it won't change the situation on the ground. I've made enough threads about how Bush hasn't a clue about local politics and issues...
So one wonders what will happen on July 30th when the puppet government takes over. I can imagine others left out of the scheme will make sure they get "heard" the explosive way. Bush hasn't tried enough "pacifying violently" either. Or getting elites to power (besides Chalabi) that would make an effective client state.
So charming the common Iraqis pointless ? Playing along with the elites is just doing the same old mistakes ? Should Bush just have allied himself with either the sunnis or sias only ?
One must also add that at this point in Iraq, there’s also something of a mentality of “tell the pollsters what they like to hear”, due to the desire to preserve life and limb during the previous regime. That makes things even more difficult to deal with.
Of course, 5% of a million people is 50,000. If even a third of that number of malcontents is actively fighting (even that number would be high IMO just based on the low number of casualties we are taking), you would see a situation similar to what we are seeing today.
So I’d say that its reasonable, given the actual numbers we are fighting (I figure that, even with the recent ‘uprising’ there can’t be more than 10,000 active fighters in all of Iraq…they just aren’t causing enough casualties relatively speaking), that 95% of the population, if not ‘supportive’ aren’t actively hostile nor directly involved. The problem is, that at least from the indications I’ve seen, the vast majority of the people in Iraq are sitting on the fence just waiting to see what will happen. And thats where this occupation is failing…its not getting the majority on board to actually do something.
As far as the OP goes, polls can always be made to say what you want them to say. The Iraqi polls are no more invalid than polls in the US are. They are all mostly bullshit, used to justify whatever position you are advancing. And if all else fails, simply discount the poll as totally wrong. Myself, I take ALL polls with a huge grain of salt.
If 95% of common Iraqis like US soldiers (like that “impartial” soldier reports says) it means nothing. Common people have almost zero power. So happy polls mean nothing… never mind if the polls are accurate or not.
The power brokers, Mullahs, Clerics and politicians aren’t happy with the US. The CPA hasn’t been dealing with the people who have power and now the Al-Sadr and the Sistani’s are claiming power the violent way or by isolating the CPA. By not including them the USA has basically incited them into doing things their way. The puppet government has so little power and no faction feels well represented.
Back to the common man. He might favor the US... but when his cleric and his leaders say. "Death to the infidels"... who do you think weighs more heavily on his opinion ? Plus the US is being pretty heavy handed... so polls or no polls even the common man is thinking again about the US being a "good invader".
So claiming that troops are being cheered at constantly (that soldier served in the Kurds area... little piece of info they neglected probably.) it means little.