Conditions: Israel, or a military actor reasonably presumed to be under Israeli direction, detonates explosive devices in an effort to damage Iran’s military or budding nuclear technology infrastructure. An embassy bomb, legitimately ascribed to Israeli covert ops, counterintelligence, etc. in a 3rd country doesn’t count. This needs to be an act that is readily described as “military” and it needs to involve the destruction of Iranian materiel on Iranian soil.
Entry cost is 500 Quatloos.
Winner is whoever guesses a date (in Iran) closest to the date of the action. Ties will be split evenly.
I’m in a pickle! I think Israel will not attack Iran in the current era, but no matter what date I choose, anyone who also thinks Israel won’t attack Iran in our lifetime can just choose a date 1 day later than me!
It’s always tough to be optimistic about peace in the Middle East… but I’m going to go out on a limb and say Israel ISN"T going to go to war soon, with Iran or anybody else.
Iran CAN be a dangerous nation, but cooler heads in Jerusalem may well reason that, for all their bluster, the Iranian mullahs haven’t DONE all that much to threaten or provoke Israel. For that matter, neither has Syria.
The Israelis may decide that the mullahs and the Assads of the world are keen on anti-semitic rhetoric, but AREN’T spoiling for a war to exterminate the Jews. Indeed, Israel may well decide that the devils they know are less dangerous than the devils who may come to power, and decide the status quo in Iran and Syria is the best they can hope for.