Odds are that it’s probably a fraud since the policy usually is of a third party accounting firm which handles the tally and only the 2 people who manage it and print the envelopes know the results, so it’s pretty damn easy to trace the leak if this is authentic. I personally hate award shows, but it’s basically the female equivalent of the Super Bowl score being leaked a week early. The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, Doubt, The Wrestler, Wall-E, Benjamin Button, Milk (despite its star and director, who were way more tolerable than usual) and Iron Man all do come highly recommended from me, and I hope they do win some awards.
I cannot think of one single reason why this list would even exist. Fake as hell.
The depiction of the Academy Award statuette has its arms in the wrong position and is missing the “©A.M.P.A.S.®” that usually appears on depictions of the statuette. I agree that it is fake.
The screenplay winners alone show this list to be complete baloney.
It’s definitely fake. Final ballots were due Tuesday, and it’s only Friday. They’re still counting (that link is a GREAT overview of the process, but it’s a PDF). Plus, the security of the counting room is unbelievable. The Academy doesn’t do their own counting. PricewaterhouseCoopers has been doing the counting since 1935. There’s only a very small team of highly trusted employees involved in the process. No one person counting sees all of the categories. There are NO connections to the outside world. No phones, no faxes, no internet, no cell phones, no frickin’ nothing. Plus, the ONLY people who do know everyone’s tally once the ballots are all counted, are the two bean counters from PricewaterhouseCoopers, the guys you see carrying the briefcases at the awards. They each memorize the winners (nothing is written down), and stand in the wings so that if a presenter were to call out the wrong name, they’d correct it immediately (putting to lie that nasty rumor that Jack Palance said Marisa Tomei’s name by mistake).
Sid Ganis, who supposedly signed that bogus letter, doesn’t know who the winners are until the envelopes are opened on stage. No one other than those two guys knows who all the winners are until the envelopes are opened on stage.
And beyond all that, yeah, the writing awards give it away. Not that I wouldn’t like to see In Bruge win Original Screenplay, but there’s no way. And The Reader? HAHAHAHAHA!! I don’t think so. If Slumdog doesn’t win this category, Benjamin Button will.
While the list is an obvious hoax, “ha ha ha ha” is a good way to end up looking pretty bad on Oscar night. If “The Reader” had no chance of winning it wouldn’t have been nominated. That it made the top five in its category means it has to be close, and it’s got the fundamental elements of an Oscar winner - it’s about the Holocaust, it’s perceived as artsy, and it’s talky.
It’s a long shot but by no means is it impossible.
I think the only nominee who has no chance of winning is Robert Downey Jr…I loved Tropic Thunder, which already puts me in the minority, and he’s still the third person from the best supporting actor nominees who I would vote for. I think Iron Man itself may win an award or two, however.
And Marisa Tomei was great in My Cousin Vinny. I never understood all of the hoopla over that win. Yeah, if Robert Downey wins, THEN I could see it.
Sure it’s possible. Anything is always possible, but I believe the movie will be honored by Kate Winslet’s win. Slumdog Millionaire is absolutely, totally, unbelievably beloved in Hollywood, and New York, and London, and that’s where most of the Academy members live. It’s won ALL of the major precursors. Major precursors being the Guild awards. Since most of the Academy members (in the artistic and acting categories) are also Guild members, that’s a lot of Academy voters who love Slumdog. For it not to win would be one of the biggest upsets in Academy history, if not the biggest. Even Shakespeare In Love won a couple of the major precursors, Writers Guild Original Screenplay, and Screen Actors Guild Ensemble Cast, so while a surprise winning over Saving Private Ryan, its win wasn’t out of the blue. Actors are the biggest voting block of all the Academy members. Crash won SAG Ensemble too, as well as the Editors Guild Eddie, and the Writers Guild Original Screenplay (Brokeback Mountain won Adapted) so its win over Brokeback wasn’t out of the blue either. It was a huge shock, but not a totally unexpected upset.
If there is an upset, Best Picture will go to either Milk or Benjamin Button, not The Reader. It’s not loved at all. It’s respected, but not loved. Just like Frost/Nixon.
Btw, what other Holocaust movies, perceived as artsy and talky, have won Best Picture Oscars? Schindler’s List? 16 years ago? I do believe that’s the ONLY Holocaust movie that’s ever won Best Picture. (and was that talky? I’m asking because I haven’t seen it)
fusoya, why would you be in the minority for loving Tropic Thunder. LOTS of people loved it, here at the Dope and everywhere else. Look, it got nominated for an Oscar! It’s a wonderful movie, the funniest movie of last year, and one of the best, funny or not. It made a shitload of money too. You’re not in the minority at all.
I definitely agree with you about Marisa Tomei. She deserved her Oscar.
This document wouldn’t even exist. Why does it only have all the ‘big’ categories? Where’s best short animated feature?
It might be an attempt to drum up some veiwership for the show. After all, Oscar has been slipping badly in the ratings.
This is likely due to the fact that Oscar now rates “Most PC” film rather than “best” and “Best actor in a PC film” rather than “Best actor”. etc.
The Academy has now margilinalized itself, and the awards have almost no basis in reality. Big fun action blockbuster films now can’t win, no matter how good they are.
Yeah, unlike the past where they gave Best Picture to ‘Jaws’ and ‘Star Wars’ and ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark’ and ‘E.T.’ and… wait a minute.
Lord of the Rings: RotK, Gladiator and Braveheart all won Best Picture in recent years. And Gladiator was bloody awful.
The animated short category is there. Presto is claimed the winner.
Braveheart, Titanic, Gladiator, Chicago, LotR.
1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2003.
So big blockbuster films can’t win Oscars now, except for all those those recent years when they actually did. 
Sorry, but who said “The Reader” might win Best Picture?
And to be honest those other two pictures weren’t all that great, either.
See post #6. Some guy named RickJay.
2003 is 6 years ago. Batman didn’t even get a nomination nod.
Yeah, but every year there’s a movie that everyone assumes will get lots of nominations, including the big ones, but is surprisingly, sometimes shockingly, left out of Best Picture. One year it was Cold Mountain, another year it was Dreamgirls. This year it was The Dark Knight. It’s not as if all those individual voters said to themselves, “boy, I really do not want to see a period piece based on a popular book get a Best Picture nomination,” or “boy, I really do not want to see a musical loosely based on the Supremes get a Best Picture nomination”. No one said to themselves, “boy, I really do not want to see a superhero movie get a Best Picture nomination” no matter how much it’s spun or people sneer.
The fact is…ok, the speculated fact is, Cold Mountain, Dreamgirls, and The Dark Knight probably all came in 6th on the list, and I will just bet that The Reader was 5th, and that the margin of nomination votes were very close. TDK didn’t not get nominated because people didn’t like it. They obviously liked it because it got a lot of nominations, it’s just that it didn’t appear on enough people’s #1 or #2 spot. But I’ll bet it was on a lot of people’s #3 or #4. Oh god, this gets into me thinking about how the nominations are counted, and that always gives me a major headache because it’s the most complicated simple system. It’s an odd method, but fair. I’m too tired to get into it. Here’s a description of how it’s done.
Anyway, if The Dark Knight had been nominated (and I think it should have been, along with Christopher Nolan) the people who are bashing the Oscars would be going on about how great and relevant the Oscars are, or something, while of course, a lot of people would be appalled that The Dark Knight was nominated. There’s just no pleasing everybody.