There probably will be some sympathetic-to-you-and-me individual stories. A mother deported at age 40, who has lived here for 30 years, and has one 20-years-back shoplifting conviction. Will the median voter feel about that as old-time-liberal me does? Maybe not. Maybe they will think that a Dreamer should have dreamt, not shoplifted.
Trump does not want to solve problems. So he wouldn’t deport them all, even if he could. He wants to say the Democrats stopped him from doing the whole job, so another MAGA term is essential.
The GOP will have only very narrow majorities in the two Houses. That would be a reason for optimism except that almost all the GOPs seem committed to the fascist agenda. And Trump and the criminals he appoints will issue and execute illegal orders in defiance of Congressional consent. Thus I think a combination of scenarios 2 & 4 in OP is most likely.
Four reasons for pessimism are found in a recent opinion by Robert Reich. Each of four possible centers of resistance to Trump has been targeted by Trump and his allies.
Trump & Musk hope that the government will shut down on Saturday. Whether the GOP Congress acquiesces to this may be a harbinger of what is to come.