Possible Apple Domination?

In My Humble Opinion
1

I don’t know if many of you have read this article, but I’ll post it here:

This guy makes a compelling argument about the future of Apple

I have also read somewhere (sorry no way to back this up) that Apple is working with Sony for the software in Playstation 3. I could be wrong, so tell me if this is true.

Why wouldn’t the MPIAA want to get involved? Movies are much harder to pirate at the current stage, but will only get easier, and the current stopgap mechanism isn’t working. Apple developed Fairplay with the owners of the media. Its not easy for the common guy to cheat it, so it doesn’t get cheated. Its always been said, make the stuff easier to buy than to steal. Movies are a good cantidate for that one because music is so darn easy to steal because its small, but to download a movie, it take quite a while. They, along with Sony’s movie catalog, and don’t forget how Pixar now has full distrobution rights, could simply make a store like iTunes to sell access to movies for a subscription. It would be like a cross between TiVo and Netflix. Except that there really wouldn’t need to be a limit to how many you keep but rather how many you download. It would probably have to be subscription based with an option to buy certain movies I think. Television shows could make it on there. It would be like Tivo in that you would have to wait, but with TiVo you have to wait weeks to see that syndicated episode of Friends that you liked but with an iTunes movie store you could get it in an hour maybe?

The whole iPod explosion was slow. Its been two years. Now the Mac Mini has a strong start, but could this possibly work? Also, Apple has 6 billion cash to play with at a very opportune time. Apple has changed its identity with the iPod so much that they seem to be on the right track. They sold iPods because of ease of use, coolness, and iTunes. Sure, most people don’t spend that much on iTunes, but it all ties into the hardware profits. The Mac Mini isn’t likely to have much of a profit margin, but perhaps in a similar way to iTunes and the iPod this connection between these two parts, the store and the only player that can play them is something that seems to be worth more than the sum of its parts.

Obviously, I believe in the future, Internet Access will be the primary concern of customers, and media will be delivered on top of that. Telephone, Internet, possibly radio. Especially with technologies like WiMax and 3g, it seems like we’ll all have portable internet connections. Why not have a cell-phone that operates on WiMax?

Secondly, if you are looking at this from another standpoint. What exactly does Apple have to lose by trying this? They’ve already got the platform (Mac Mini and possibly the iPod photo or future generations of it) Mac OSX tiger will have the codec. All they need to do is to get some movie studios to go along. They will want to because it will help them stem the tide of piracy which they all seem so concerned about lately. Heck. Steve Jobs alone could relase Pixar’s the Incredibles on the new Movie store with almost no risk. He’s the CEO of Pixar anyways. Plus everything he touches lately has been golden. The iPod and the iPod mini. The Mac mini is also selling well.

Jobs could purchase a company like TiVo and get their patents. Its got a market cap of around 400 million I think. Again, Apple’s got 6 billion. What does all of this mean for Apple though?

It doesn’t mean that Apple will suddenly take over the world. I really doubt that. I mean not that many people own iPods. But it will probably be the first sucessful mainstream entrance of the computer into the living room. Gates has got his Media Center edition of Windows, but it doesn’t have elagance or ease of use. Its a tool for a technophile. Imagine a TiVo with an Apple interface? That would be cool. But the inclusion of the Movie Library means the most to me. If Apple gets that, then they have a HUGE start over anyone else.

But then again, who is to say it could be even more popular if Bill Gates made his new Xbox the same type of thing with Media Center Edition and sold movies through the Microsoft version of Itunes movies store?
But at the moment I think its a great time to be Steve Jobs. He’s got 80 percent of the people at Microsoft with portable MP3 players using iPods, which is frowned upon. He’s got a huge share of the Portable mp3 player market which will only increase after the shuffle. Apple is becoming associated with a media company. Cringely also states that Jobs could spend one billion dollars to sell the Mac Mini at a loss just to get people on board. Who knows though?
Personally? I’d like to see Apple take back some market share and scare Microsoft some, hopefully though not to the point to where Microsoft knocks Apple out. I’d like to see, especially badly, an iMovie store like iTunes music store. That would be beyond cool. In my book there’d be nothing better than being able to download television and watch it at your own pace.

2

Until Apple can offer true business power and customizable computers for the same price as similarly powered PCs, they will not explode. I certainly expect them to gain market share over the next few years, but nowhere near ‘domination.’ For me: Until I can build an Apple machine myself, that’s at least as powerful as my PC, and I can get all the components for a top of the line machine for $700 like I can now, I won’t be switching.

3

Sorry Jman, but you’re not the target audience for a Mac.
My brother the electrician is though: all he wants is a box that doesn’t get stuffed with viruses, spyware, adware, and popups everytime he checks his email and surfs the web. And he wants it done without having to learn anything about computers…

4

They might gain some market share in the near future but nowhere close to domination. Breaking the 10% market share barrier would be a huge cou for Apple. The most powerful force in the IT market is interia and Wintel has that. For businesses to switch platforms would require a huge cash outlay and simply will not be done. “Well that is business” you say. The problem with that thinking is that most white-collar employees use computers at work and home and need them to be compatible with one another. There is some cross-platform compatibility between Apple and Wintel for major apps but it is not seemless. Another problem is that Apple has money but Microsoft and many times theirs. Microsoft has a rich history of mimicing or flat-out stealing any great ideas that other companies come up with. They will just do it again this time.

5

ok but can’t you just see how many people responsible for computer maintenance in large corporations are begging their bosses to buy Mac minis instead? I know I would if it would be possible to run all of the software. Its just easier to use and screws up less.

6

What, and put themselves out of a job?

Never ask the barber if you need a haircut.

7

Y’know, after getting acquainted with the MacOS, one would think the thing is completely idiot-proof. But experience has taught me that there is no modern appliance that the sufficiently idiotic cannot screw up royally. It’s like the better mousetrap paradigm in reverse: No matter how unser-friendly the appliance, nature will create an end-user stupid enough to fuck it up. Mac still need IT. The beauty of it is (and the IT folks should learn this), is that the end-user is none-the-wiser to the scam. Because he or she is an idiot. I mean, to support a 2003 server and handle all those clients, you’ve got to know stuff. And those systems are major high-maintainance (forgetting the convolutedness of it all, malware means your job is never done). With OSX servers and clients, you can nap 7 out of 8 hours, but a few of the clients still need you desperately. Some of those folks are the higher-ups, even. To them Macs are these alien contraptions from the 13th dimension that simply refuse to make sense. You, Mac IT guy, swoop in occasionally and “save the day”, and the client user has no idea how easy your job really is. The Mac makes you look like a miracle-worker, because you can always fix the problem! They don’t know how absurdly simple the task was! So don’t tell them! Shhhhh1

8

The problem is, when your IT department consists of yourself fielding 200 Macs with ease, it’s hard to chase the boss for a bigger budget. Especially after they look and see you’ve only dealt with fifteen service calls in the last 6 months.

When your IT department consists of six techs fielding 75 PCs, and your service log is the size of a telephone book, it’s easier to go to the boss and ask for an extra $20K to spend…

9

Uh

Don’t the make this prediction every seven years or so? :dubious:

10

Umm

The last time I used an Apple fulltime, all the pictures on my hard drive disappeared before my eyes. Considering these files were my Photoshop homework, I was not exactly pleased. :mad:

11

Okay, but then… Lets think about personal politcs too. Lets say you are working under Johnson, the head of the IT department who is answerable to the CEO. You go to Johnson and tell him how it will make things easier like what LoopyDude says. Well, you both go pitch to the CEO about how you can make things easier. When it become obvious to Mr. CEO that things are easier now, he can lay off some other IT guys and you’ll be in a damn good position to ask for a promotion! Its a good idea if you ask me. Plus being the resident Mac Guy you can look all knowledgable fixing the CEO’s computer when he has the keyboard unplugged.

You either have clever higher-ups who will cut the IT budget and fire people, or the dumb ones who will just let you goof off all day while losing money. Both would be beneficial if you know how to play your cards right. If I were doing it, and I felt like backstabbing (I wouldn’t but this is just to play devil’s advocate for those who would) I would simply suggest to the head IT guy that he bring this to the CEO, but I would first make sure i knew how to get all of my systems running on MacOS first before. So then I could pitch myself as the guy who knows how to cut costs 80 percent or whatever.

But then, every office is different. You have some where people use word processors all the time and that wouldn’t be so hard. Also consider…who could hate a Mac? I mean especially the little Mac mini? Its so cute! People practically have maternal instincts kicking in when they seem them… Awwww…its so CUTE!
Okay I really have to hijack this here, because of some really important news today…
What about the Sony/Toshiba/IBM collaboration that was officially unveiled today known as the “Cell.” For those who don’t know its a processor with 256 million transistors (or billion? Its double the latest Intel whatever that figure is) Its supposed to run at 4 GHz and be completely scalable. It will have a G6 Processing Unit with 8 seperate APUs which have access to an ungodly fast memory each (i think). Basically the idea is that it is completely scalable and cheap. The PS3 has 4 of them I think. Anyways, information to be processed is sent to them, in software cells (again, I am not so good at this) and these can be distributed to any number of cells in a massively paralell way.

Okay That is bad, but those in the know will surely be able to tell me a lot about it. The reactions on slashdot range from “Its going to change the face of computing” to “Its not much until we see how it works in reality” Anyhow, its got a PowerPC as the Processing Unit.

I don’t see how Apple couldn’t just phase these in to their Macs because it has the PowerPC and just leave the other parts to be used as the Software develops for it.

Also, Apple has a first-time entry into E3 which nobody understands why yet. Also, Apple is making a big push for HD which these thingies are good at decoding video.
Okay all that stuff about the cell is not my area, so please be gentle with the corrections. But today was the big unveiling, so I’m hoping you techheads will be able to decipher it…

12

In my experience, CEOs with that much common sense only exist in hypothetical fantasies. :smiley: In the real world, you end up with decision-makers whose technical knowledge is limited to parroting whatever this week’s FUD from Microsoft is. “But can the Macs do .NET? It’s the future of computing – it says so right on the box!”

Folks who are too scared to give up their existing habits and learn something new.

Too early to tell at this point, though my first response is just a basic caveat – programming parallel processors is a non-trivial degree more difficult than conventional programming.

13

Apple will never dominate. They’ll make some inroads, and I won’t be surprised to see them double their market share in the next two years, but they’ll never “dominate”. The PC market has proven quite a knack for taking every innovation that Apple puts out and making it three times as fast, one-third the price, and ten times as widespread a couple months later.

Of course, Apple’s stronger market presence will be most welcome. That level of competition could only be good for the consumer.

14

From a technical perspective, Apple systems don’t really offer anything over Windows XP systems that running on premium, standardized hardware platform. I’m talking about buying a workstation quality PC that is similar in price to an Apple. From a networking and software standpoint, unless you are doing multimedia…the PC absolutely is better in everyway because of its marketshare.

The most important thing to note about Apple is that it is very, very good at executing an idea or marketing concept.

The iPod offered very little in terms of innovation from a capability standpoint and it certainly doesn’t establish an aggressive price point. It is a retread of what was already available but marketed with 100% effectiveness.

The iTunes store is another example of excellent execution and it probably wouldn’t have been possible without the contacts that Steve Jobs has. It was a political/business victory and certainly not a technical one. Many people, including myself, think that the future will be a service model like Napster and not a pay-to-own for each track. It should be interesting to watch.

Finally, when it comes to movies-on-demand. It will be very, very, very difficult for Apple to become a major player. I say this for several reasons:

  1. HD quality movies are HUGE. A standard DVD is 4 Gigabytes and even with broadband speed…it takes a long time.

  2. Telecom/Cable companies. They already have the infrastructure to offer movies on demand and they could expand very quickly if needed. They also own many of the broadband connections that consumers use. TIVO is a perfect example of how a cable or dish company can be a tough player. I have and love my TIVO but the long term solvency of the company isn’t looking real bright at this point because of the DVRs offered by the cable industry (for less money).

Finally, there is an entire rental market that does not want to be cut out of the loop. Their plight might be predetermined at this point, but they do buy a great volume of movies and in the worst case they will find a way to compete with a direct scenario as well. The end result could be so much fragmentation that it is hard to imagine a single company dominating for long.

Apple is riding about as high as it will for a while. IBMs new processors (CELL) are going to show up in new machines…and not only from Apple.

15

It’s good to see Apple doing well, and I do hope they increase their market share.

But not to the point of causing malware authors and script kiddies to become “switchers” :eek:

10% good. 30% not good.

16

Just a note, its hard to say how big the movies will be if they are encoded with the new codec that Apple has been touting. Secondly, why hasn’t Jobs had any static with the Recording Industry? I mean they have been suring peole because they were stealing music.
Obviously it isn’t about technology. This is basically simple stuff. Take a laptop, remove screen and keyboard, put it in a nice box, make it cheap. Anyone could do that. But Apple is going to be the first company to sell you a computer as a consumer electronics device. That’s why the mini is headless. I mean it is all just “there” self-contained. All software loaded that you’d need. Easy to use.

What’s funny is that Jobs hasnt’ hyped it yet. It has had a modest, modest intro, with no advertising. Obviously it isn’t needed at this point because they can’t produce enough. But what will happen when the orders drop down some? I expect prices to drop and upgrades, but the thing is, Apple products change your life. I don’t mean this in a “Cult of Apple” way, but this is because Apple expects them to. With the iPod, they don’t sell it to you as something that you listen to, they sell it as a way to revolutionize the way you listen to music.

This is what has been missing with the Mac mini. But I will hold judgement until later.

Marketing is Apple’s forté but they also manage to revolutionize the way people do things.

As for Security through Obscurity. That is a good argument, but partly false. Apple gets all good software having 4 percent of market share. There have been no major problems with Malware on the mac. But there have been some malware programs that have actually been targeted at users of a specific firewall program that was less than 30,000 users. If this group is big enough, then why isn’t Mac OS X. Also Mac OS had viruses before with similar market share. Now there are basically none.

This Cell thingie could really change things though…It might make the differences between Intel and Mac moot. Would Apple continue to manufacture “Apple” computers if MacOS worked on any Cell-based machine? I don’t see why…

17

The only reason this doesn’t happen is because of the low number of Mac users. As soon as that number starts rising, you’ll watch the safety appeal evaporate.

18

“But Apple is going to be the first company to sell you a computer as a consumer electronics device.”

Its an interesting point. I would argue that Microsoft did it first with the PC powered (running Windows) X-Box console. It plays movies, photos, mp3s and games while also supporting internet connectivity.

Either way, the next 3 years should prove to be REALLY interesting. Sony’s Playstation 3 and Microsoft’s X-Box (2) products will probably be very PC-like and it won’t surprise me if they have keyboard/mouse and web browser support as an option.

In fact, the developer kits for the new Xbox are actually Macintosh G5 machines and it is expected that this new machine will be powered by the same next Generation PowerPC chip as the Macintosh of the future.

In between these two giants that are battling for the consumer’s living room, Apple is going to be an interesting one to watch.

I could think of many reasons why Microsoft should dominate, why Sony should dominate, and how Apple might. …so it will be fun.

19

Yeah, I’ll be happy as long as some cool, cheap stuff comes out of all of this. I have just recently discovered Apple though, so I’m a littel biased. They do deserve more credit for the quality of stuff they make.
But what about the changing nature of PC usage? 5 years ago nobody used their PC for multimedia. Sure there were somethings, but burning DVDs, listening to MP3s were really reserved for the geekish willing to put in the extra time

But how is PC usage likely to change in the future?

Microsoft has its vision. I’ve heard it called a monolitic version with a central server responsible for almost everything and the extensions of that being somewhat dumb (like the Xbox-media center expansion). Apple seems to be going towards specialized boxes that work together. IE you use the mini for media in the living room, the PowerMac for “Computing” in the office, and maybe something else for another application that comes up.

20

Speaking as a UNIX geek, I have to say “fat chance.”

A big reason for Windows’ vulnerability is due to the inherent security holes Microsoft puts into its software, such as the willingness to let emails invoke scripts automatically. In contrast, most of Apple’s stuff comes out of the box with everything turned off (you can’t hack a service that isn’t there), and even administrator accounts require a password before dinking with low-level system stuff.

While I expect that, when more people use MacOS X, you’ll get more exploits that involve “human engineering” (i.e., tricking people into running stuff they shouldn’t run), I don’t anticipate the high level of automated hacking attacks that you see on the Windows side of the fence.