Pixar received an honorary Oscar for just that for Toy Story. Steve Jobs is not an artist. He won’t get one.
Harrison Ford is an icon, but not a particularly prolific or important actor. I seriously doubt he’ll get one either. George Lucas is more likely, since he’s never won one. He does, however, have a Thalberg, and since his creative output (both in distinction and in volume) is largely in a producing capacity, that may be seen as sufficient.
Honorary Oscars tend to go to directors with a high artistic profile never recognized by the Academy, or really good actors who’ve received a ton of nominations and never won, or who’ve lived long enough to merit “legendary status”. The longevity thing is hard to predict, but the individuals with the most career nominations who’ve still never won include Glenn Close, Sigourney Weaver, Julianne Moore. I predict that if none of them ever win, the one who survives the longest will take one. Similarly (but less urgently, because of the gender thing) are Ed Harris and Jeff Bridges.
That said, I predict that David Lynch is probably the surest bet amongst American directors–him and Spike Lee. Terence Malick hasn’t quite made enough movies to merit it yet. If David Cronenberg continues on the roll he’s on (higher-profile, Academy-recognized, non-horror films), his reputation will be overdue for reevaluation. Still, he’s a definite longshot. Ridley Scott is also an outside chance (though he hasn’t received the same critical cred the others have).
They have been known to give individuals Honorary Oscars after receiving a competitive one, so I’d say Scorsese is the most likely candidate here. There was a time when legendary comedians (Fields, the Marxes, Chaplin, Keaton) got recognized, but I think that era’s over. I can’t think of anyone who wouldn’t raise eyebrows now (the closest would be Steve Martin, but most of his films are total crap nowadays).
Morricone was definitely the most overdue amongst the craftsmen/“technician”-types; I can’t think of another composer who’s in the same league who hasn’t won at least once. This year’s Honorary winner (Art Director Robert F. Boyle) was also a good choice. I’d say the top cinematographer who’s still Oscar-less is Gordon Willis (he wasn’t even nominated for the first two Godfather films). At some point, Roger Deakins & Caleb Deschanel may be seen as overdue, too, if they don’t eventually win. I really do believe the “the sound guy” (20-time loser Kevin O’Connell) will win one someday (he’s only 50, so probably has quite a few more nods ahead of him).
They also periodically give Honorary Oscars to important international figures. Godard is probably at the top of the list, except he wouldn’t come and probably mock the Academy for its choice. Rohmer would be a fantastic choice (he turns 88 next month), but he may be too obscure. Even more deserving (and older, at 99, but even more obscure) is Portuguese Manoel de Oliveira. Greek Theo Angelopoulos is also richly deserving, but probably won’t make the cut. Among foreign actors, I’d say the two front-runners are Bergman vets Max von Sydow and Liv Ullmann–both, again, richly deserving, and both previous Oscar-losers, too.
And I’ve said it over and over, but Roger Corman is long, long, long overdue for a Thalberg award. With some of the more interesting choices in the last few years amongst the Honorary honorees, I think he has a pretty good shot at it, if they’re not too late (they don’t award people posthumously, and he’s 82 next month).
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