His raised campaign money will be tied to money laundering for Russian banks/government prompting the House to start impeachment process, or a long hearing (longer than Hillary’s) where Trump will trip over his own words, contradicting himself over and over until his base realizes he hasn’t a clue or a lot of money at all. Arrests for Don Jr., Kushner and freezing of Ivanka’s and Donald’s assists for further fraud investigations leading back to the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City or even before then.
I suspect that the strongest case against him will involve evidence of tax evasion, conflicts of interest, and possibly money laundering and insider trading.
I think that there will be strong circumstantial evidence of collusion, on the order of “How could he not know what was going on” but no smoking gun.
As for obstruction of justice, I think that it will depend on how you define it. I think it will be clear that he did try to shut down the investigation of himself, but those on the right will say that it was a witch hunt and he was perfectly in his rights to do so.
Poiltically, I think it will be business as usual with Dems, pointing out obvious criminal activity. Republicans doing a combination, of disputing facts, down playing the significance of the crimes, and saying but Clinton/Pelosi/2020 Dem candidate did worse, and all the “independent” voters deciding both sides are equally bad.
Massive money laundering, and the Republican party will continue to cover up a criminal enterprise.
I also predict that I will finally find out why the Trump campaign was paying an ad agency named Draper Sterling (after Mad Men characters) that doesn’t actually exist. I think I’m the only one that remembers this story, and it’s not the biggest thing in the world, but I’m still mildly obsessed with it.
I believe there will be charges of conspiracy with the Russians and they will include charges of same against Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator. The direct evidence of it will be the testimony of (to date) Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen. These were Trump’s “go betweens” with whom he dealt directly. They will have direct knowledge of conversations wherein they told him about what the Russians were doing to help. I expect to soon add Roger Stone to this list.
I expect Trump and family members, including Ivanka, Jared, Melania, Don Jr. and Eric, to be charged with money laundering, racketeering, undue influence, tax fraud and goodness knows what else. Lots of these charges may not come directly from the Mueller probe but will have been passed along by Mueller to other federal and state jurisdictions to pursue.
As for obstruction charges against Trump, many of those have happened in plain sight. Again, these indictments will be brought against Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator at this time. Probably more than 100 charges. Gawd.
Mueller will issue a report to Congress, but I expect it will be superfluous. I think Mueller will continue to reveal his case via speaking indictments and charges against various parties as he as done up to now. If indictments he brings against Americans include the same level of granular detail as his indictments against the Russians, we’ll know plenty – report or no report.
Treason charges are a possibility, given this filing by the Russian Federation in response to the DNC civil lawsuit filed in SDNY. The Russians specifically assert a defense that they conducted a military attack on the USA in their cyber efforts and as such, are immune from civil prosecution as a sovereign nation. (Hat tip to jasg who posted this link in the Mueller Investigation thread in the Pit.) While we are not in an active war with Russia, one wonders if the Russians’ contention that they engaged in a military attack changes the perspective for Congress.
Just for icing on the cake, I expect indictments for obstruction to be brought against Devin Nunes, Mike Pence and others who have actively participated in the cover-up.
There will be more indictments of many individuals for making false statements to the FBI than we can keep track of.
When the dominoes start to fall, I think many in this country (if they’re paying attention) will be gobsmacked at the depth of the corruption.
While the Mueller probe itself may be brought to a close, the repercussions, continuing investigations and prosecutions will go on for years.
I think Trump sr is under sealed indictment, and Mueller isn’t going to release those indictments until Trump is out of office so that prosecutors do not have to deal with the legal headache of indicting a sitting president. Lots of people around Trump will be indicted while Trump is still president though.
Other than that, I’m sure there is ample evidence of collusion with Russia, but I’m not sure how far back it goes. My understanding is Trump’s russia ties likely started in the 80s or 90s, when his casino ventures failed and he started making money laundering russian money via real estate.
The fact that Mueller has gotten almost everyone they want to cooperate means they probably have a good case. Also the fact that as far as I know, nobody has quit the Mueller team is a good sign too.
Anyway, this being America I’m sure they’ll all get slaps on the wrist.
The easiest case is Obstruction of Justice but, in essence, can’t be settled until Trump and Mueller sit down to discuss what Trump’s thinking was when he took various obstructive acts.
According to recent reports, the President and Mueller are still negotiating that conversation. In the meanwhile, they have agreed to send written answers to Mueller on questions that have nothing to do with Obstruction of Justice.
It seems unlikely that Mueller would write a report on Obstruction, without the Trump sit-down.
So either he’s not writing anything and the news is just disinformation from Team Trump, or he’s preparing a report on something that Trump did that isn’t Obstruction. And if that latter is the case, I would think that he would only go ahead and do so because the Obstruction charges have become a secondary concern.
Mueller is a registered Republican, as we have been told time and again. He won’t actually cross the leader of his party. Trump will skate, his kids will skate, and the Democrats will be left with egg on their collective face after wasting all that time trusting a Republican to bust a Republican.
I hear what you’re saying. But Mueller is one of the few remaining members of a dying breed: the Republican with principles. He won’t protect the leader of his party if that leader is shown to be a crook. Remember, it was Barry Goldwater who went to Nixon and told him he had to resign.
That reminds me: time to watch All the President’s Men again.
While virtually all republicans in elected office are unwilling to enforce the rule of law or defend democracy (except as posturing for selfish reasons like Jeff Flake does), I think Mueller actually has principles and credibility despite being a republican of national prominence. Same way James Comey does.
My impression is Mueller actually acts the way most mainstream republicans pretend to act. Patriotic, country first and obsessed with law and order.
I don’t like the adulation of Mueller, but my impression is he has principles.
The Mueller probe will go nowhere. You can rest assured that Trump’s lackey replacement for Sessions and the Senate will make sure anything that comes out of the Mueller probe - if it ever even sees the light of day - will be investigated about as thoroughly and openly as the FBI’s Kavanaugh probe, and it will fade away with a whimper.
Mueller is not a secret liberal hoping to dump Trump. He will look at the letter of the law and in terms of Trump, it will be pretty much impossible to bring a charge of collusion or obstruction. Any actual crimes (tax evasion, money laundering, COI etc) will be deferred back to the states and addressed (if at all) long after Trump is out of office, probably via fines and such.
Mueller is a Republican, not a White Christian Nationalist; the Republican party of 2018 is White Christian Nationalist, not Republican. For the sake of the constitution, for the principle of his profession and the rule of law, for his country that he serves and has served, and for his fellow Americans, I don’t think he’ll hesitate for a single moment to prosecute those who are suspected of crimes, and to report to the American public the misdeeds of the president and those who brought him to power.
Legally, I think Don Jr and Jared are in some serious shit, and so is the president. Mueller is in a position to indict the former, but it will be practically difficult, if not impossible, to impose legal remedies on a sitting president. However, I think he can and will report to congress on the misdeeds of the president – provided he’s given the opportunity to do so, of course.
I suspect we’re about to see the president and his fascist collaborators in the senate shutter the Mueller investigation. The question is whether they implement their plan in time. If you look at the recent comments and actions by Sens Graham and McConnell, it seems clear that the plot to stop Mueller is already moving but there’s perhaps some internal disagreement over tactics and timing, and uncertainty about the political costs. But they’re absolutely in agreement with the president in their desire to end the Mueller probe, and I think they’re willing to support the president in more aggressive campaigns against his (and their) enemies.
Remember, as great as the “blue wave” was, the Republicans have the senate, and they have the real power to protect the president. And Republican voters have made it clear that they’re not going to hold the president or senators in Republican strongholds accountable. The Democratic House can make noise, but that’s all they can do. They can’t stop the president, and that’s a reality we can’t forget. The Democrats need to keep building their strength on the issues at the state and local levels. They need to get stronger there before they’re really in a position to challenge the president. And then they need to hope that the president starts making some big mistakes. By that I don’t mean having meltdowns on live TV or on twitter - the public’s used to that. As perverse as it is, the Dems need the Donald’s policies to start having negative consequences that are obvious to voters, and then they need to offer alternatives.