Predict the Senate

[wonky]

@Enlightening_Meditation

As I said already, I still count Murkowski as a Republican even though she switched to independent in order to beat the Republican nominee Joe Miller as a write-in candidate for the Alaska seat in the US Senate 2010 election. Lieberman took a similar route to re-election in 2006 after he lost in the Democratic primary, but he wasn’t a write-in candidate.

I’m only clarifying because no one considers Murkowski an independent. She considers herself a Republican and is listed as a Republican.

[Tom_Scud]

The votes aren’t all in in Montana yet, but it looks like 55 (or 53 + 2) is the correct answer, which I thought was wildly overoptimistic when this thread was posted. Sam Wang called all the races correctly; not sure if Silver did as well.

[Gangster_Octopus]

@Tom_Scud

The votes aren’t all in in Montana yet, but it looks like 55 (or 53 + 2) is the correct answer, which I thought was wildly overoptimistic when this thread was posted. Sam Wang called all the races correctly; not sure if Silver did as well.

Montana was lean republican (66%), so he got that one wrong, in that sense. Most of the recent polls were for Tester, so it points out the fact that in Senate races he probably leans to highly on fundamentals than on polling, if the polling is recent.The big miss was North Dakota, which he had as safe Republican. Wang says he based his prediction on the polls, which I find curious because I do not see any polls that favor Heitkamp.

[DSYoungEsq]

Heh, I called it right. 55 Dem - 45 Rep. I love it when a plan comes together. D