To refresh memories here, courtesy of 538’s fun “Swing the Election” app, are the turnout and shares of major demographic groups in 2012:
Non-college educated White: turnout 55% 60%R
College-educated White: turnout 78% 54%R
Black: turnout 63% 93%D
Hispanic/Latino: turnout 47% 71%D
Asian/Other: turnout 48% 69%D
Predict how it will be different this cycle.
No prizes to the closest though!
My guesses include marginally increased turnout of non-college educated Whites, stable to marginally decrease in college-educated Whites and Blacks, significantly increased Hispanic and a marginal increase among Asian groups.
Finals of the two-party vote to be:
Non-college educated White: turnout 57% 65%R
College-educated White: turnout 78% 54%D (an 8 point flip)
Black: turnout 63% 93%D
Hispanic/Latino: turnout 57% 78%D
Asian/Other: turnout 50% 70%D
If so then the Swing-o-matic results in an EV of Clinton 374 to 164 with an approximately 8 to 9 point margin in the two-party vote. That’s seems a bit much but it is with AZ by only 0.1% and GA by 0.5% so I can see local variation flipping them the other way with my overall prediction. It does have Ohio Blue though.