Predict turnout and share by demographic group.

Politics & Elections
1

To refresh memories here, courtesy of 538’s fun “Swing the Election” app, are the turnout and shares of major demographic groups in 2012:

Non-college educated White: turnout 55% 60%R
College-educated White: turnout 78% 54%R
Black: turnout 63% 93%D
Hispanic/Latino: turnout 47% 71%D
Asian/Other: turnout 48% 69%D

Predict how it will be different this cycle.

No prizes to the closest though!

My guesses include marginally increased turnout of non-college educated Whites, stable to marginally decrease in college-educated Whites and Blacks, significantly increased Hispanic and a marginal increase among Asian groups.

Finals of the two-party vote to be:

Non-college educated White: turnout 57% 65%R
College-educated White: turnout 78% 54%D (an 8 point flip)
Black: turnout 63% 93%D
Hispanic/Latino: turnout 57% 78%D
Asian/Other: turnout 50% 70%D

If so then the Swing-o-matic results in an EV of Clinton 374 to 164 with an approximately 8 to 9 point margin in the two-party vote. That’s seems a bit much but it is with AZ by only 0.1% and GA by 0.5% so I can see local variation flipping them the other way with my overall prediction. It does have Ohio Blue though.

2

Let me think on that one a little, because when I did mine, Trump got 357 electoral votes. But it is interesting how even small changes can create huge results. I didn’t move any turnout or vote % predictions more than 10%.

3

I ended up with 405EVs for Hillary, 54-40.

4

What did you predict for each group’s turnout and share?

5

All right, here’s my numbers, since I can never resist making a prediction:

Non-college educated White: turnout 59% 70%R
College-educated White: turnout 76% 48%D
Black: turnout 58% 91%D
Hispanic/Latino: turnout 51% 68%D
Asian/Other: turnout 52% 65%D

This results in a huge landslide for Trump though, so I’m obviously totally wrong here. But it’ll be interesting to at least see where I went most wrong.

6

I’m not sure about turnout rates yet, but it turned out I gave Trump too many whites and not enough minorities. Whudda thunk?