Younger voters have an increase in female voter turnout and D preference across all subgroups. Biggest increase in young Black women, increasing from 47 to 55 or even 60%. The younger male vote remains an unchanged total turnout for Latino and Black men (39 and 31%) with a marginal but real improvement to Trump’s share. Maybe decreased in certain swing states like FL and PA.
Overall gender - the overall excellent woman voter turnout will not change much but the share to Harris will increase from 55 to 60. Male turnout will stay about the same and Trump will gain a couple of percent there. Less than 5.
By education- even bigger Harris margin same great turnout for college degree and above driven by college educated women all ages ethnicities and location. Non college educated white men down from Biden’s 33% but still at or above Clinton’s 28%.
Coincidentally, today I will use this nifty interactive tool to teach on this (for my undergrad-level Political Geography class). It uses recent census data. Click “Explore on Your Own” (I think that’s the phrasing), and you can see the Electoral College count effects of, say, increasing turnout by young white males 2%, or making older Hispanic women lean 3% more toward Trump than in 2020, etc., etc.
Probably works best on a device larger than a phone.
(Dopers will appreciate the tool’s name: “Swing-o-Matic”)
Okay — I actually agree with everything you proposed, except for the “suburban is a Harris romp.” Perhaps you could be more specific (at least, how much does this shift from 2020)?
