Thought it would be fun to predict the predictions. As we get closer to the election, there will be less chance for outside chances to sway things. Do you think Obama will go into Tuesday with an 80% chance, 60%, 99%?
He’s currently projecting Obama at 77.4% to Romney’s 22.6%.
Personally, I think that if the polling is similar as it is now next week - Silver’s model will push Obama to the high 90s, 97-98% by Monday.
My prediction for the prediction:
81% Obama
This is waaaay to meta.
I predict that peoples predictions in this thread of Nate Silver’s final prediction will average 79% chance of Obama victory.
OK, but don’t include your prediction of the predictions of Nate’s prediction in your tally of the prediction of Nate’s predictions.
I predict the next prediction of SDMB’s average prediction of Nate’s final prediction will be 82%.
You still have time to start a blog aggregating the aggregators.
Amazingly enough, that’s what at least part of Nate Silver’s post today was about - an aggregation of the aggregators.
If we had another person willing to predict the final average SDMB projection of Nate’s projection, then we could aggregate those.
Come on guys, no need to hijack this. It’s a serious question about what we might expect the odds to look like at election time. Will we be going into next Tuesday with a nail biter on our hands, or will it seem fairly certain. If you don’t want to participate, then don’t.
I’m in the fairly certain camp at this point. I predict Nate will end with an 87% probability for Obama.
After today’s polls are added to the equation, expect a big leap in Obama’s favor. Every poll is moving to Obama, and the velocity seems to be increasing. I’m guessing that today’s update from 538 will show Obama over 80% again.
I’m guessing Romney’s campaign knows it’s over.
82% in Obama’s favor by Monday.
Judging by Christie’s actions in recent days, I think a lot of people know that the insiders know that the Romney campaign knows that it is over. But, I’m just guessing about that.
What day are we predicting the prediction on? Monday noon, Tuesday morning, Tuesday night? As externals are factored out, the prediction is going to swing further to one direction or the other.
I say that Tuesday (pre-voting) it will be at 87%
I believe Nate’s computer model will go a bit high just before election day - 91%.
The model will also go high on the electoral number - probably over 300 for Obama. My guess is closer to 298.
Crane
It’s already at 299.
I think the actual will be 298.
I suspect the computer will go up to 320 or so.
Crane
Project not with pollsters, lest ye become a pollster, and if you gaze into the statistical minutia, the … um …
You know what? That kind of got away from me there.
Almost. Silver updated about 15 minutes ago, and Obama’s up to 78.4% in the forecast (though he is above 80% in the now-cast, he was over 80% just three days ago, too).
Honestly I won’t be happy unless it’s 99% Obama to win. Even 1% chance of Romney winning is too much for me to sit comfortably.
I just really hope they are able to call Ohio, Virginia or possibly Florida early in the night for Obama and then I can relax.
So, I predict 99.99999999% for Obama because I want to be optimistic 