DSeid
November 6, 2012, 11:18am
41
His explanation of the late move up in FL was indeed “trendline adjustment”
If Mr. Obama has gained a point or two nationally because of Hurricane Sandy or other factors, then polls taken before it may underestimate his standing in the individual states as well.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast accounts for this possibility through its trendline adjustment, which is why our forecasts now are slightly more optimistic for Mr. Obama in some states than a simple average of polls. Had there been evidence of late movement toward Mr. Romney, the trendline adjustment would instead have worked in his favor.
…aaaaand it actually comes in at 91.6%. Nostradamus I ain’t.
Actually, it’s 90.9%. There was another simulation he ran with some updated Florida numbers. FL is a dead heat. His simulation is showing 49.797, Romney 49.775.
He just dropped it to 90.9%. Exactly when does he stop calculating anyway?
Munch
November 6, 2012, 3:45pm
45
When all the polls are done. I suspect that they’re all done now.