Well, Arnold DID pose for those nude photos. I don’t think that will go over with the Christian right.
I’m not sure Arnold is going to say something stupid. He’s a pretty bright guy. And he’s very, very calculating and controlled. Look at how that Tonight Show announcement was made - it was pure political perfection. He has a history of doing stuff like that.
The real problem as I see it won’t be getting Arnold to shut up, it’ll be getting him to say anything substantive at all.
The problem Arnold has is that he’s conventionally unelectable, because he could never make it through either major party’s primary system. Especially the Republican primary system. This election was dropped in his lap as the only way a guy like him can make it into a major office, but he has to be very careful. He’s no doubt going to be pelted with questions about gay rights, abortion, affirmative action, and other programs he may support but which are anathema to the Republican ‘base’. And if he says he won’t raise taxes but will cut spending, that won’t play well with the Democratic base. So he’s a politician without a home.
His strategy will probably be to say as little as possible before the election and trly on his charm and star power to get him through the short election cycle. I’ll bet they’ll have to pry policy information out of him with a crowbar.
I dunno: it was pure showmanship and suspense, not exactly a masterful political move. It apparently surprised all his advisors, and was at least staged like a spur of the moment decision. No politician could pull that sort of thing off.
I agree: he faces threats from both the Dems and Pubs… which is sort of what makes this kinda fun. He’s in effect pretty much a centrist (at least in Calis current woes). The question is: will he last against the sniping of his fellow party members, or will they split the vote?
Simon is the wildcard. He lost the last election, but not by much, so he does have a significant number of supporters out there. Epsecially of the more conservative stripe. Bustamonte needs to split that vote right down the middle.
Which talk show host is going to land Arnold first? I’m guessing it’ll be O’Reilly.
I am not an Arnold supporter per se, because he’s a little too far to the right for me. That being said, to those who have been questioning his qualifications and/or experience, how is he LESS qualified/experienced than George W. was when he ran for governor of Texas?
He’s a bright man, and socially sane (i.e. not anti-gay etc). As Republicans go, he’s better than many, probably most. I’d certainly vote for him over Shrub (not that that’s an issue at the moment - and 2004 is too soon for Arnold to go national, IMO).
I think the backlash against Schwarzenegger will come in the next few weeks, as more details about his past and his political views come to light – and they will come to light, I have no doubts about that. Heck, just reading the profile of Schwarzenegger in this week’s Time has started my own doubts about the guy, and I have enough faith remaining in human nature to say that Arnie won’t get voted in solely on name recognition.
If he’s going to win, he has to have values and ideas people can stand behind. And he will have to commit to those before election day.
Avh: Arnold was not born a US citizen, so he can’t “go national” except for Congress.
This whole thing is likely to end up in the courts. Big surprise. With the ballot as confusing as it’s going to be, this will make Florida '00 look like a high school class election. I also think it very probably that Davis will resign before the recall election. If that happens, it’s unclear if Bustamante bevomes gov, or if the recall goes on. We report, the courts decide.
So what happens if Davis simply resigns today? Does the recall go away? Who would be left to recall? Bustamonte would walk away with the whole mess, for mess it really is. If Davis took one of the Dems, it would appear that Arnie would be left holding his dork.
cj
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Not exactly. Much of his support were people who voted against Davis. The Simon campaign in California was awful. He had personal integrity problems including a fraud conviction involving, IIRC, one of his companies that was overturned on appeal. He also, in the last week of the campaign, attempted to drop a corruption bombshell on Davis that blew up in his own face and had even what was left of his base shaking their head in disgust. Simon is a factor in the race only in that he will siphon off some votes from the right. In an election with ~200 candidates, that could easily be enough to make the difference.
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Exactly. This is a race between Arnold and Bustamonte. Arnold’s goal is to position himself far enough to the left to attract soccer moms and far enough to the right to pick up enough conservative support from Simon. In political techno-babble, this is called the “center.” This is right where Riordan was and why Davis viewed him as such a threat. Bustamonte’s strategy will be to sit tight and hope there is enough fratricide among republicans to swing the election his way.
BTW, I don’t see the Clintons wanting to get involved in California. What’s in it for them? First, they would strongly galvinize support for Arnold among far-right conservatives if they attacked him. Second, Arnold, though a good deal more conservative than most actors, is very popular in Hollywood so the Clintons would be trying nuke part of their own base. Davis is also damaged goods. In may well not be in the democrats’ interest to save him. There’s a current of thought that says it may not be such a great thing to be govenor of California for the next couple of years – let the other guys do it. Finally, the spectre of Bill Clinton trying to save a fellow disgraced politician from “impeachment” is just too. . . juicy. Clinton wants to minimize the impeachment as an unfortunate though ultimately unimportant episode. He doesn’t want to make it the centrepiece of his continued political existence.
NB - Once the recall has been certified and a date set, I believe the recall cannot be stopped even if Davis resigns. I’m guessing that if Davis resigned and the recall did not pass, Bustamonte would get promoted from acting govenor to actual govenor. If the recall did pass and Bustamonte did not win the election, he would go back to being Lt. Govenor and whoever won would take over.
I don’t know that the eight weeks until the election are enough time for anything good to get rolling.
They already focused on a theme to try to get Arnold. This is probably the first of many attacks and I categoraically abhorr this.
Basically, a proposition (Prop 187) voted on in 1994, was passed (by a majority) and one of the voters who just happen to be vocal about it is Arnold. The part of the article that you can read (unless you subscribe for free to the LA Times) clearly states that Arnold never campaigned for this proposition or had anything to do with its creation. It was backed by his present campaign manager, former Governor, Pete Wilson. It was later struck down by the courts as unconstitutional.
This attack is an obvious bid to make the Latino community back away from the ex-terminator because Prop 187 involved denying social services to illegal immigrants.
This is the same Bill Simon Tactic that worked a year ago. It is laying on guilt by association. It is a smear tactic pure and simple and it is disgusting that they would do this in short order. Everyone is calling for arnold for specific issues but no one is stepping forward to state their own. The other 2 republicans who started to snipe arnold are not getting my vote and I am certainly not voting for no out of work actor/mall security guard who cant handle his own finances or take charge of his own destiny. A person like that is not fit to control the destiny of California.
Guilt by association? Maybe technically, but I think most would agree that a campaign manager’s history is fair game. It is a position of trust and authority selected by the candidate.
Is it really? I find it astounding that you believe that. What you are asking me to believe is that Arnold is nothing more than a puppet whose strings are being pulled by his manager. Youre asking me to believe that Arnold doesnt have his own opinions or values and whatever he does is the work of others. Ive seen Politicians be that (grey davis being one of them) but what makes you believe that Arnold is that wishywashy?
I am waiting for the issues. So far none has volunteered to debate them yet in any specificity. I mark a point against any candidate who smears the other to get ahead. If none of the issues are discussed, then the person with enuf integrity to do the right thing is the man for the job for me.
Anyone agreeing that that a candidates support staff is fair game is just supporting negative campaigning. It is absolutely the lowest form of campaigning and should be outrightly abolished.
Well, the backlash has started:
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_080703/content/stop_the_tape.guest.html
http://www.theamericanprowler.org/article.asp?art_id=2003_8_6_23_54_55
If it’s true that you can judge a man by his enemies . . .
Yes there is already a backlash from right-wingers because Arnold is perceived as being too liberal especially on social issues. This is a problem for him because Bill Simon the arch-conservative is also running. I wonder if hiring Wilson as a campaign manager is a way to woo the GOP hardliners away from Simon.
Considering that these two will split the GOP vote and that the state is Democratic-leaning anyway I would imagine that Bustamante has a pretty good shot if he gets his act together especially since the other Democrat dropped out.
I think you’re going overboard. He voted for it, and publically supported it. If you disagree with him on that issue, it’s fair game to point out that it was something he was for, utterly regardless of whether he campaigned for it or not.
Actually, it’s the other tway-round. If Arnold picked Wilson to manage his campaign, he’s just as much fair game. If he says that he wants to fix the energy crisis, then hires one of the guys who helped cause the energy crisis, that’s open to legitimate question on the ISSUE of: what exactly is better than Davis about your new plan if you are consulting with the people who helped mess things up the last time- the very thing you are accusing Davis of doing?
Well, I hope to SMILE he’s pro homosexual. Horation Alger bullshit aside, Arnold did not make it merely “through shrewd career management”–those famous photos weren’t the only thing he did in the nude, for cash, for a gay clientele. Like many a young bodybuilder, in those days Arnold depended upon the kindness (and generosity) of strangers. Discretion is generally the watchword in that, um, culture–most of the guys who make themselves available for cash are straight–but I have a feeling that discretion will be thrown to the wind by one of his former clients, given this kind of spotlight.
Yes Apos cleared it up. X~Slayer(ALE) I don’t see how you reversed “It is a position of trust and authority selected by the candidate.” (newly added emphasis) The views of people A.S. chooses will and should reflect on him.
Also, he’s going to be responsible for appointments when he’s governor isn’t he? It’s legitmate to question if he does a good job at it.
[sup]**MUST PERVIEW [/sup]
Oips. Strike the Horation n.
Tell me, are you a left-wing character assassin or a right-wing character assassin? You got a cite for all this or are you relying on personal experience?
It looks to me like Davis is revving up his campaign already, since elucidator already raised the same baseless rumour in this thread.
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=202829&pagenumber=2
Let’s assume, for the moment, that it’s true and Arnold, when confronted by a “client”, admits it while pointing out that an incident that happened 30 years ago has no bearing whatsoever on whether he would make a good govenor. Would you hold this 30-year-old event against him?