I hope for a Yes but I’m pretty sure it’ll be a No.
At least both sides seem to have more respect for the process and the eventual outcome than what we saw here in 1995. Probably because there is less ambient dislike and mistrust.
Another hoping for yes, expecting no. Just for the entertainment value.
I expect the vote will be no, and probably by a wider margin than the polls suggest for more or less the reasons suggested upthread by Ximenean and others. There is a fair degree of feeling that we’re safe and warm in this pile of shit, so why even try to take the risk of digging our way out?
Shame, but there it is.
I just checked one of the larger UK bookmakers, Paddy Power. Current odds are Yes: 7:2, No: 1:5. The odds for a yes vote have shortened somewhat in the last few weeks but that is still a pretty clear ‘No’.
I’m assuming a single-digit defeat. But you never know, maybe all the loud lecturing from outside groups will have the opposite effect.
I say “No” wins by a 51-49 margin… mainly because too many Scotsmen aren’t completely sure the welfare state in an independent Scotland will be as generous as the one currently provided by the UK.
Er, what? Did you mean that to sound as insulting as it does?
I expect they meant the welfare state as a whole, rather than implying the ‘scrounging, welfare-dependent Jocks know which side their tatties are buttered’.
I think Dead Cat’s analysis upthread was pretty good. And I both hope for and expect a ‘No’ vote.
This comment comes up often, so this time I’ll be the one to point out that bookies don’t set odds on likelihood. They base them on how the bets are going so as to assure a profit regardless of the outcome. Since presumably they are taking bets from non-Scots it can’t even be considered reflective of Scottish bettors.
Only up to a point. Since the odds on a no vote are so much less attractive and the media has been saying it’s too close to call for some time now, it is unlikely that a huge majority of punters are betting ‘no’ at this stage.
Wasn’t the vote for forming the Welsh assembly leaning towards “no” right up until election day? That one swung narrowly in favor; I suspect the same will happen in Scotland.
Question: assuming Scotland does vote for independence, can the result be ignored before independence is implemented - say, if there’s a government change after next year’s general election?
(And how soon before somebody comes out of the woodwork and suggests that Franz, Duke of Bavaria be crowned King of Scotland?)
Why “only up to a point”? The odds given suggest that they already have a lot of “no” bets and are trying to pump up “yes” bets. That’s the point.
I’m shocked the “yes” side has made it this far; this was pie-in-the-sky stuff when I was a kid (in the 80s-90s) in the UK. I still don’t think they’ll win though.
I hope the Scots vote “Yes.” They are much more progressive on the whole than the English, which mean they will have better government and better government policies.
I figure there will be enough of a sudden cold-feet in the voting both effect about such a major change that it will end up no.
Yes, actually. Though in my defense, I’m no more dismissive of Scottish independence than I am of any other latter day independence movement.
Every so often, there’s talk from assorted crackpots here in Texas about seceding from the USA. Such talk is laughable. It’s never going to happen, because practically everyone in Texas gets assorted goodies from the federal government, and nobody wants to give them up. As soon as little old ladies start worrrying about whether they’d still get their Social Security checks in an independent Texas, the “movement” (which is already tiny) peters out.
I don’t take independence movements in Puerto Rico or Quebec seriously, either. The movements have gone on way too long! If the people of Puerto Rico or Quebec really wanted to become independent, they’d have DONE it by now. They’d have done it a long time ago.
I don’t take separatist movements in Belgium seriously, either. The Walloons and the Flemish can’t get along? So what? Stick it out until you’re BOTH just tiny cogs in the mighty E.U. empire.
As for Scotland… look, Scotland isn’t my country. The people of Scotland will do what seems right to them, and the rest of the world will abide by their choice. But of all times in history to seek independence, why NOW, when it’s never mattered less?
Oh, OK. Well, see, one thing that will not be assured for Scots by remaining part of the UK is a generous welfare state. So it’s probably not that which will drive a “No” vote.
Reason will prevail (I voted “no”). Gee, what if I’m wrong?
Yowzah.
No way in hell. I vote no. I will be absolutely stunned if it turns out “yes.”