I think the Pros and Cons for the film’s Oscar candidacy are as follows:
Box-Office Clout: Sometimes, a film comes along that completely changes the landscape of the box-office, touching a nerve in the larger popular culture that results in a massive reboot for the industry. And sometimes (GWTW, The Godfather, Titanic), that film is rewarded accordingly with a Best Picture Oscar. Unfortunately for Avatar, the numerous exceptions (Star Wars, ET, The Dark Knight) dovetail with…
Genre Prejudice: The fact remains that only once in the history of the Oscars has a fantasy/sci-fi film won Best Picture, and that film (a) had a literary pedigree to fall back on, (b) had a much more solid critical foundation, and (c) was the third installment of a massive multi-year undertaking that yielded 30 cumulative nominations. In short, LOTR was simply too big and significant to be ignored.
The jury is still out on Avatar’s legacy (beyond that of a technological game-changer), but there are quite a number of voters (especially older ones) who will see the film as too pulpy, derivative, or inconsequential for the top prize. This often is reflected as a knee-jerk response to anything that doesn’t present itself as sobering, serious (or self-serious) “cinema”, and other genres (comedies, westerns) have also been victims of this narrow view in the past. Best Picture, to them, means Most Important Picture, and Avatar’s eco-friendly anti-colonial pretensions aside, it’s not a film they’re going to take as seriously as something like Invictus.
Industry Protectiveness: But the Academy isn’t dumb and knows on which side its bread is buttered. A vote for Avatar, for some, will mean a vote for the future of Tentpole Filmmaking, which yields more jobs for a single film than the entire crews of An Education and 500 Days of Summer combined.
The Oscars are also a means of self-congratulation, and while some may like sending the message on how Meaningful movies can be, others take pride in craftsmanship that yields technolgical wonders as what Avatar represents. The Academy consists of different branches, and while actors (the largest branch) and writers may have mixed feelings about these big budget blockbusters, sound mixers and costume designers and visual effects coordinators are generally more likely to support films that show off their specific discipline to best effect.
A Wider Field: The most unpredictable factor is that, with 10 nominees, nobody quite knows how the Best Picture race might unfold. However, there is one thing we do know–the voting system has changed. It is still One-Ballot/One-Vote, but by having members rank their preferences, this could put Avatar at a disadvantage, since you’ll need more than the most #1 votes to pass the necessary threshold; you’ll need to capitalize on second preference balloting for other films in the slate. If you’re voting for Precious as the best film of the year, how likely are you going to be to put Avatar second?
Cameron’s film is a polarizing one, and while those who like it really like it, those who don’t may be passionate enough to bury it at the bottom of their tally–and that may be enough for another strong competitor (The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air) to siphon off votes that will result in a victory.
Popularity Contest: Also, don’t underestimate how Cameron’s reputation in the industry might effect this. He’s unquestionably a visionary, but he’s also someone who many people who’ve worked with him see as nothing short of tyrannical. That he beat the odds and made the unlikely Titanic an international phenomenon might’ve been enough for some to forgive him his faults out of respect for his gumption and initiative.
But this is his second time around, and after his “King of the World” immodesty 12 years ago, there won’t, for some, be the same type of urgency to reward him again. And who was the last director to have consecutive films of his win the Best Picture Oscar? David Lean, and no offense, but Avatar is no Lawrence of Arabia.
Venue Issues: Personally, I didn’t care for the film very much, though it was visually impressive at times. But that was in the theater in 3-D. Not all Academy members will be seeing it that way; though there will be an acknowledgement that the film “has to” be seen in a theater to appreciate the full effect, how many Academy members will be watching their screeners at home instead? Really hard to say, but if they do, Avatar’s biggest selling point will be significantly blunted.
Academy members are professionals, but ultimately they’re just viewers, too, and they’re likely to respond the way most people do–by allying themselves with the film they like the most, the one that gave them the most visceral reaction. The technical achievement of Cameron’s film is muted if you watch it at home, and I’m skeptical that whatever emotional resonance (if any) the film has to offer will be quite as effective on the small screen as some of the other choices. And that will matter in the long run.
If I were a betting man, I’d bet the film walks off with 3 or 4 Oscars (or maybe more), but none in the major categories. I think, cultural phenomenon aside, there are too many things that will bother enough of the fickle Academy membership for them to vote for it–going with something more comfortable, conventional, or (IMHO) undeniably superior instead. We’ll see…
