Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.
Avatar will “bomb” and bomb hard. Sure, it’ll make $150 million, but that will mean it will forever be associated with Waterworld, Ishtar and Heaven’s Gate as a bomb.
Other possibilities for that age group:
- Seeing Twilight: New Moon for a third (or fourth) time.
- The Princess and the Frog (in fact I’d bet on that being the winner of the holiday season for the under 12 set).
- Sherlock Holmes
And that’s not even getting into the “doing something else” option.
I’m excited there’s a sci-fi film coming out that isn’t a sequel or adaptation. I’d probably see it just for that reason.
Trailers have a pretty low predictive value, IMHO, so I’m not particularly concerned that people haven’t liked the trailer. I was at the theater last week, and every trailer were so similar, they could’ve been for the same film. Not that the movies advertised were that similar, but there’s definately a trailer formula the people follow, and they grab the same sorts of clips from every movie and add a similar sounding script.
I predict it will make its money back in the domestic market, and then earn a profit overseas.
I predict this movie will be revolutionary both in the box office and in the film biz. Cameron himself is a bit of an a**hole, but you can bet this is going to be an incredible film regardless. He’s been working on it for about 10 years. He is a perfectionist.
I am nothing but excited to see this. Please don’t let the trailers fool you. This’ll be something to remember, and something to see on the big screen.
I’m voting Waterworld. When the production company starts throwing around this much advertising, they’re in full panic mode.
Of course, the problem with this comparison is that film directors, within just a couple of years, were going beyond the gimmicky phase with color and sound.
But 3D has been around for over 50 years, and the number of genuinely innovative, artistic, non-gimmicky uses of the device you can still count on the fingers of one hand. Coraline was so unusal in that it used the technology so effectively to enhance the theme and tone, but that has not happened in any of the other examples I’ve seen recently (including Up, which used the device so non-obtrusively that there was hardly a point to the 3D in the first place). For something to exist this long and to have made so few genuinely creative inroads into the medium, I have to consider it a gimmick first-&-foremost.
As for Avatar, the price premium on 3D will make it a b.o. powerhouse, though any comparisons to Titanic are delusional. It’ll be lucky to pull in The Dark Knight’s domestic numbers, though will probably perform better overseas. But after seeing the 15-minute 3D theatrical preview, I can say with absolute certainty that I’ll be catching the 2D version. The acting and writing were already an alarming warning of what is to come, and the prospect of suffering though headache-inducing action scenes in 3D is too much.
Have Christians weighed in on this movie yet? Is that too political for CS? I’m amused the movie apparently promotes cross-species love as long as it’s not same-gender love, human or otherwise. Someone might say the cross-species thing is really just symbolic and the moral is embracing minority cultures and exploiting their environment is bad. In that case, the movie is unbelievably trite and so last century.
I don’t see anything in the trailer than isn’t Dances with Wolves. If it’s popular, I may make an effort to see it in all its 3D glory, but I haven’t seen Up or any other 3D movie yet so more than likely it’s going in the Netflix queue. Not the top of the queue, either.
My prediction is good opening day numbers driven on hype, a drop off to regular 3D-viewing numbers, whatever those are these days, and really mediocre DVD sales, because like it or not, 3D is the big gimmick, and people don’t watch 3D at home much, do they?
Too cool to see Avatar but not cool enough to recognize that every story is a rehash of another story.
Power Armor vs Aliens = Cha ching. The rest of the speculations in this thread are absolutely meaningless.
I think it’s gonna suck. I don’t want it to suck, but I think it will. The trailer looks like an ad for a 3D Captain Planet and the Planeteers episode with aliens.
You say:
But I also see:
Which is exactly what I was predicting based on the tedious trailer. No thanks.
ETA: mswas, there’s retelling stories well and there’s retelling stories in a banal, cliche manner with heavyhanded HEY THERE’S A MESSAGE DID YOU GET THE MESSAGE WAIT LET ME SHOW YOU THE MESSAGE YET HOLD ON HERE IT IS ONE MORE TIME. We’re saying that this is coming off strongly as the latter.
My wife worked on it and she vouches for the narrative. I trust her judgment so I’m looking forward to it.
I refer you to the multiple posts in this thread in which it’s explained that the 3D effect being used today is different than that of years past. You can actually do subtle things with 3D using the new technology, which is the entire reason why films like “Up” and “Coraline” can use 3D “unobtrusively.” The old technology simply wasn’t capable of the fine gradations in distance, and thus wasn’t good for anything other than gimmicks. Modern computer graphics (including both CGI and computer-based image processing/ editing tools) were also crucial for achieving realistic 3D.
IOW, the reason you have 50 years of 3D as a gimmick is that, for most of those 50 years, the technology was crappy and you didn’t have computers capable of processing gigabytes of data in seconds.
I’d also disagree that the 3D in “Up” was unnoticeable - having seen “Up” in both 2D and 3D, I definitely felt the sheer heights at which much of the film is set far more strongly in 3D. It’s a gorgeous film either way, but you get much more of a feeling of “Up-ness” in the 3D version - that same dizzying sensation you get when you look out the window of an airplane at 30,000 feet for the first time.
Aha. Now we get to the meat of the matter.
So that we can individually judge whether your wife’s taste meshes with our own, could you please give several examples of movies your wife did and did not enjoy?
Well, as I see it the story of freedom fighters fighting against oppressors who are out to commit genocide still has a fair amount of currency. shrugs If you can’t get over that it’s a retelling of the American Revolution/Native American Resistance/Jewish Resistance fighters in the Holocaust…etc… Then I guess it’s just not the movie for you.
It’s going to do ridiculously well though.
No, because I signed an NDA with the company she works for and it would be illegal for me to do so.
I’m just saying, I know a bit about the story and people that I trust for their opinions on narrative, because I’ve worked with them professionally, my wife being one, all say it should be good.
Whether or not you believe that is immaterial.
EDIT: But for the haters, I doubt it will make much difference. It will be like how Barack Obama is to Republicans. They see only that which confirms the arguments they made in September 2008. I’m sure there will be plenty of people like that here, curmudgeons who come on just to tell us how oh so right they were to hate the product sight unseen, but how they of course had to go see it early so that they could be the first to report how terrible it was.
Please re-read what I’ve said. I’m not concerned that it’s a retelling, per se–I’m worried that it’s going to be a **trite, poorly written, banal, ham-fisted **retelling. If you don’t understand the difference, then IMO that’s further evidence that the movie is, in fact, probably going to suck.
I didn’t say tell me what you wife likes about **this **movie, I said tell me what **other **movies your wife does or does not like. I highly doubt that you signed an NDA to never reveal her tastes in cinema.
Well, I didn’t understand before, but thank you for the practical demonstration. ;p
It ain’t that simple, my wife likes a lot of cheesy crap, but she also recognizes how to tell the difference in one narrative type from another. So her liking ‘The House Bunny’ doesn’t really give you an example.
I asked my wife to justify her existance for you, and the best she could come up with was this:
The element they are fighting over is called ‘unobtainium’. So either you like that they aren’t trying to fellate you with some hokey sciencey justification for it, or you hate it because they didn’t try hard enough.
Then she started talking about our health insurance policy for 2010. Sorry I couldn’t keep her on track for the important stuff. 
Whatever. Aliens riding dragons fighting power armor.
No way it is Titanic. That movie had tons of repreat viewings, primarily by Leo obsessed youg girls who also dug the love story. I just do not see that happening with Avatar.
I also doubt it will be Waterworld.
In the end it comes down to the underlying story, if it is not engaging then it will be a moderate flop, if it is a good story well told, then it could be fairly successful.
Way to dodge the question man.
Sorry, but “my wife said so” is not going to convince anybody that Avatar will be good unless we get a feel for what else your wife likes.