[QUOTE= Loony right-wing web site]
For each state, the polling data listed for that state at Real Clear Politics is viewed, and when obviously skewed media polls are removed, the remaining credible polls are averaged. If that average shows Obama at 50.1 percent or better, that state is shaded blue for Obama. Any result below that for Obama, and the state is shaded red for Romney. This reflects just about all the undecided vote going to Romney by the time voters cast their ballots in the actual election.
[/QUOTE]
I presume “obviously skewed media polls” = those favoring Obama.
What’s cute is that the author gives states like Nevada and Virginia, where Obama is leading Romney by margins like 49-46 or 48-44, as Romney states because Obama is polling less than 50%.
I don’t remember the polls at the time – and I understand that polling techniques have been vastly refined just in the past 10 years even – but I do recall how pathetic Carter was constantly portrayed in the press. The way they went to town over his Hubert Horatio Hornblower gaffe, for example. And he took a lot of heat for the failed Iran hostage-rescue bid, which may have added to any general frustration he felt. (I voted for Carter in both 1976 and 1980.)
Obama is not being portrayed in the media as pathetic, that’s for certain.
I often wonder if, in his heart of hearts, Romney truly believes he’s going to win. Or if he knows what will happen but dares not do anything but go through the motions at this point and hope for some sort of 11th-hour miracle.
I’ve had this musing before, with Republicans (McCain, Dole) and Democrats (Mondale, Dukakis) alike.
If you look at the this graph in the middle of the page you will see that Reagan had a slight lead thought August and September and much of October. Reagan however had a lead throughout that summer though of much more. Finally a major point is that about 20% were neither for Carter or Reagan, John Anderson accounted for some of that, but Reagan ended up with 50% and carter with 41% so there was a very large portion of undecided right up to the end. That does not appear to be the case this year.
Giving every single swing state to Willard still leaves Barack with 201 electoral votes, making Willard’s absolute ceiling 337.
I have been saying for about two years now that the loser in this election will receive at least 45% of the popular vote. America is very divided. Baring some kind of shocking surprise, it is obvious there will be no landslide in either direction.
Willard can still win. His side will spend $2 billion and he could possibly shine in the debates, but there just cannot be a landslide.
It is if you think government-meddling-is-the-problem-in-the-first-place – but Romney had that vote sewn up before he started, and it ain’t enough to win.
But, I’ve never yet heard even a half-assed RW argument for putting any of it on Clinton, or even Carter, and before that you’d have to go back to LBJ. (Though, actually, I have encountered a few half-assed RW arguments for putting it on FDR.)
I don’t know that he’s given up on Pennsylvania. I live here, and I’ve gotten at least one Romney robocall a day for the last week. Pretty damned annoying.
Not only that, but as it says later in the article,“Strong performances in the other two debates could easily double that lead for Romney.” Eventually he’s going to have the whole map colored red.
The debates could be tricky. It’s possible that something could trip up Obama in the debates, some horrible sound bite that could haunt him that could cause him to lose a close election. I doubt it though.
The other killer would be this latest Islamic rioting to spin totally out of control to the point of a couple of major civil wars going on.
Don’t accuse me of trolling. I stated an opinion. I am not required to debate here. The fact that the vast majority of posters reading it are liberals does not make me a troll.
I simply believe no matter what all these polls say, Romney will win, and I stated the reasons why. The fact that you do not like it is too fucking bad.
And if Obama wins, I will bump this thread the day after the election and take whatever jeers and flames you wish to throw and loudly proclaim I was wrong. If Romney wins, I will thumb my nose at you and fart in your general direction.