Klaatu flatus nicto.
What, this?
No, Klaatu, that would be you. If you wanted to understand the level, etc., you would pay attention to the polls; they’re a better guide to it than the like-minded folk you probably hang out with, and nobody since the 1960s, at least, ever made a good political call by dismissing them as you do. That’s “insular.”
You also apparently do not understand that, of the considerable dissatisfaction with Obama that does indeed exist, a great deal comes from his left; but that’s a vote he needn’t worry about losing, as no Nader or Kucinich is running this year.
No point in responding. He’s already given us a hearty ‘fuck you’ and disappeared again, with no intention of debating. I suggest we all do the same. Bye-bye.
I have no evidence. It is simply a belief. I also believe there is sentient life somewhere else in the universe but I have no evidence for that.
Even googling romney landslide victory doesn’t come up with much except Morris’s statements and and an interesting EC vote model from the University of Colorado:Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big In 2012 And Its Been Right Since 1980 - TheBlaze
It is simply a belief. Not defensible. But judging from the number of responses, I get the impression many of you aren’t as sure of an Obama victory as you come across as, polls notwithstanding.
I just sense an undercurrent of fear among the Dem base.
Fear not, for we come in peace and bring facts.
Out of curiosity, why would you start a thread on a forum dedicated to political debates and not be expected to engage in any discussion of it?
To me, that’s like driving to the beach, putting up a tent, going inside, and zipping it up. Then as people come by and say, “WTF is with the dude who is sitting inside an opaque tent on the beach?” it is odd to say, “I don’t have to answer your questions! All I want to do is sit in my tent!”
It seems to me that you have really stated only one reason for why Romney will win: people underestimate the dislike of Obama. However, opinion polls for the last two years have consistently shown that the country is evenly divided on his approval rating.
Your statement that you do not believe the polls is simply a perfect example of a circular argument: I do not believe the polls because they are wrong; the polls are wrong so I don’t believe them.
So, I ask the same question again: why posit a debate on a forum dedicated to debates when you have no interest in starting a debate?
If you get your information from Glen Beck’s website, you really don’t have any idea of what the sentiments of the country as a whole are. Same for Dick Morris.
P.S. That vote model has been pretty much dismantled by the pros. There is a thread about it in this forum.
P.P.S. My post is not intended as a personal slam, but as a factual statement. The Blaze is 100% far right wing content. It has no relationship to the feelings of the nation in general, just a very small part of it.
Sigh. Ok, I will try. Let’s use this model I mentioned earlier. http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says
I haven’t looked into this model deeply, but will try to post later in the weekend.
Let’s see, I will debate that this model, using economic indicators, is more accurate than more traditional models/polling. If someone can rephrase this better, thank you.
And yet, even in that scenario, Romney’s at 353 - 47 shy of the 400+ predicted in this thread.
I am not into Glen Beck and the model didn’t come from the blaze.
There’s been a lot of discussion of that Colorado model, especially as it compares to Nate Silver’s work, in this thread - that would be a good place to start.
I have spent two hours trying to debunk that model and haven’t seen anything except lame crap from Silver and some debunking of Silvers own models.
There is not a lot of debunking of that model. seriously. If it was that bad there would be more.
In other words i was trying to debunk myself, but to say that the model “Has been thoroughly debunked by the pros” is misleading,
Here’s one. Doesn’t exactly “debunk” the model but does show its track-record to be completely meh.
Faith based political debate?
Fine; I think that Romney is actually a lizard alien from Rigel in a rubber suit. I have no evidence. It is simply a belief.
Well, a blog piece from The New Republic is not exactly going to sway me, or you in all reality.
The point is I can’t debunk 538 and you can’t debunk this UC Boulder model.
We don’t know. But I still stand by my prediction. I don’t have to give evidence. And neither do you.
What if I posted an OP that said “Obama will win with 300 EC votes” How would you react?
The thread would be “Maybe 299 or 303 but Romney is screwed la la la”
But when I post the opposite, it’s “You are full of shit, cite, show us proof blah blah” how does that work?
Ha! I thought that might draw you in here. But the credence that I give to anything you post is far outweighed by the disdain and incredulity I have for anything you actually say.
Romney
Any further questions?
I guess that says it all…
Gort tells me we will have to take off and nuke you from orbit, he says it’s the only way to be sure…