Apart from anything else, I want to go on record as saying Talarico will beat Paxton by at least two points.
Opinions on this day of - will the aggregated polling predictions overall (systematically) be on the money, or off in one direction or the other? If off by how much.
Despite Silver’s reassurance it is not impossible for polls to be off by a lot. of course I am going to be worried about that until results are all called.
But I am hoping not to jinx it by predicting that the aggregated polling numbers are actually going to be significantly off the other direction, polling houses overestimating the tendency of polls to capture GOP voting especially in Red states and overcorrecting for it. Significantly. By more than 3.
Your guesses!
I expect Dems to take back the House, but fail to get a solid majority in the Senate, accounting for that dipshit from PA to swing Republican.
I am often wrong about these things, so hope remains.
I’ve really only been watching Senate races, so I don’t have a House prediction (although in my solidly red House district which has been easily won by the always-worthless Bill Huizenga, Nate Silver shows him up by only 0.5!! West Michigan may go blue! Don’t jinx it, don’t jinx it!!)
My prediction for the Senate: 53D-47R. Iowa may surprise me and give us the 54th seat, but I’m not holding my breath.
I suspect you’re aware that midterm polling has historically been much more accurate than Presidential elections. Main reason being is that Presidential elections tend to draw many more low propensity voters. This year I predict the polls are underrestimating Democratic votes.
Why?
- Based on the off-year election results since November 2024, Dems have massively overperformed in nearly every election. This signals lots of voter enthusiasm
- Based on the early voting numbers of votes already cast in states that have party registration, it seems Democratic turnout is significantly outpacing GOP turnout.
- The generic ballot polls within the last quarter - without exception - have shown Democrats leading. The leads have varied by different margins - some might show D+5 while others claim D+11, but the bottom line is they’re showing some variant of D+(X)
For Senate I’ll also go with a 53-47 split, with a prediction that we get Michigan and Texas, and three out of (Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Kansas and Iowa).
For the house lets say 227 vs 208.
I’ll say 54-46. Democrats retain everything fairly easily, win Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina without sweating too much, and eke out wins in AK, ME, KS, and SC and lose close races in IA and NE. House 244 seats and wins the governorships in TX and FL
I talk to plenty of demi fatcat class “Anyone (R)” voters who cannot imagine a reason to change their lifetime allegiance to the R brand.
Nothing of the previous 4 years of 45 + the recent 2 years of 47 has penetrated their shields. Nothing.
The Rs will retain the Senate and the only thing stopping trumpism to and beyond 2028 will be the Grim Reaper.
I hope you’re wrong, but this is my feeling as well. America simply cannot help themselves voting for Republicans. It’s a disgusting thing, but it’s just their nature.
Well, now.
I’m not American so would appreciate thoughts on this.
All the newscasters are saying we have 2 more years of Trump but is that actually the case?
Obviously he could die beforehand but what about impeachment? Could enough republicans think Trump is a liability to the party and their best chance of winning in 2028 is to get rid of Trump and have two Vance take over until 2028? If there are how long would the process take?
We’re in fairly uncharted territory here. It looks like Democrats will have 55 Senate seats, so they’d need 12 Republican Senators to vote for impeachment. We’ll see in the next couple days how Republicans react to having been led into absolute catastrophic defeat by a lame duck President. But impeachment and removal doesn’t feel like an absolute fantasy at this point.
There is potential for another equivalent wipeout in 2028. We’re talking a potential for a Democratic supermajority who will take it as a given that their mandate is to undo the last 10 years of Republican victories. Truly it would be a tactical mistake to not oust Trump. The conservative movement and the Republican party won’t survive a second consecutive election like this.
Seems this proved true. However, I wouldn’t make the mistake of thinking this was because of any vision put forward by Democrats. This election was all about being a referendum on Trump and the party that protected and enabled him paid the price big time.
Well, color me surprised (is surprise blue?). Given how 2024 went, I thought Americans wanted spite more than restoration.
Somewhere around here, I’ve said before that I expect Republicans to consider ousting Trump as one of their first orders of business after the mid-terms. They can’t position anyone to run in 2028 without doing that, and if Vance is the Anointed One, then it only makes sense to give him a running start from the presidency.
I don’t see anyone else on the Republican horizon that could do better. Ron DeSantis has the appeal of a moldy wet sock; Ted Cruz licks his own eyeballs in public; Marco Rubio will forever be reaching furtively for a glass of water… who else have they got? May as well dump Trump and position Vance as early as possible.
I despise Vance, but I’m a Real Politik girl. And fortunately, he should be easy for Dems to beat in 2028.
But first they’ll want a smoking gun that smokes so badly it will neutralize the MAGA base. If January 6 wasn’t enough to give the Republicans a spine, it’s hard to fathom what will. Maybe the Epstein files, but who knows.
There’s been 1000 smoking guns. Personally I’d go with all the DOGE stuff since it was both super illegal and makes for a great way to drag the whole cabinet, and Musk through the wringer. They could spend months gathering testimony from seasoned professionals who got fired by Musk’s army of dweebs. With the end if USAID, and the theft of American PII from the social security administration as the central focus.
Dems should do this because they need to make every Senator up for reelection in 28 vote on whether that was okay or not. The real question is whether Republicans are willing to finally take their medicine, or if they’d rather face a second electoral wipeout.
I have heard rumors that the new leadership of the Oversight Committees have decided that the Musk/DOGE debacle is indeed going to be the focus of the first round of investigations. Works for me.
Fascinating to read this thread for the first time just now and see the enormous diversity of opinions/predictions…some practically right on the money dating back into September, and some just about as wrong as wrong could be, even in the days leading up to the election itself. Making predictions is tough.