I’m not hearing complacency.
I am hearing determination, and I am hearing optimism that that determination will pay off.
But complacency, no, not after 2016.
I’m hearing NOTHING but “no complacency whatsoever, this time!” — and I am deeply enmeshed in different Biden supporter networks, in several states.
I’m hearing nothing but worry. Not at the level of your prediction, i.e. “he is going to lose.” But more “he might lose” and for some of the same reasons you state like shenanigans. I think anyone who is feeling confident on either side is foolish and you may well be right that the race will tighten in the last few weeks - it often does as the last stragglers get off the fence and commit.
But Biden IS in a relatively stronger position than Hillary Clinton was at this point, Biden’s negatives are lower than Clinton’s were and his lead has been more consistent and robust. Trump’s negatives are higher and the odds are stacked against him as it stands. Trump can certainly still win and I’m making no confident statements this year. But Biden is much more likely to pull it out and a little ray of hope is nice in this year of 2020 anno Domini. Even I can’t be a pessimist 100% of the time, try as I might.
Anyone care to provide insight about this? I haven’t heard a thing.
I believe that @chappachula was predicting Maddow will have such a meltdown on Nov 3 as the Trump landslide is counted, thereby thoroughly overthrowing her worldview. The hint it’s future speculation is in the previous sentence.
For three years, the number I mostly paid attention to was Trump’s approval, and whether it could hit 45%. My assumption, based on the 2016 election results, was that Trump could win with 45% of the vote. After all, he had won with 46% of the vote, to Hillary’s 48% of the vote, which included third party candidacies that, while not Ross Perot-like, were significant enough to impact polling.
If there’s a difference I’m sensing now, it’s that I’m not quite sure if 45% is going to be good enough for Trump this time. There are third party candidates, but they seem weaker than Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. There’s a little less - maybe a lot less - of the “They all suck, so it doesn’t matter who I vote for” mentality this time around, which hurts Trump, I think. He might need 47-49% of the vote, and it’s not looking like he will get there.
That said, he could still conceivably score long shot victories in key states to possibly make the race close, which in turn could lead to legal challenges if it’s really close.
One thing I haven’t heard anybody talk about: What it the EC is corrupt? Given Trump and his minion’s dirty tricks, it’s entirely possible if not likely.
The electoral college is chosen by the party, not by Trump.
They are chosen for their dedication to the party, they are very unlikely to change sides.
If a state is close in the vote, and Biden is ahead… It is within the realm of possibility that a Republican led state will refuse to apportion their EC votes to the candidate who is ahead. Because “vote fraud” and “illegals being bussed in” or “Biden’s son’s emails”, or whatever bullshit excuse they dream up.
While I do agree that that is a potential problem, that’s a different matter than faithless electors, as @Mortimus1 expressed.
I expect it to be closer than the polls say, too. I mentally add 3% to Trump in every poll; despite that Biden still wins the EC.
However, keep in mind that I’ve been wrong about Trump in pretty much every vote.
This page tracks the results by the polls. One map for the polls as they are, one for if Biden outperforms the polls by 3%, and one for if Trump outperforms the polls by 3%. Even if Trump outperforms, he still loses.
I’m not saying be complacent; but barring extreme and obvious cheating, Biden will win.
So get to the polls, people!
yeah., guessing 3% is okay. It’s a nice round number, and it doesn’t change the final results.
But (using Tamerlane’s numbers above) if your change your guess to 3.7%, then Trump wins.2 of the states he mentioned. Add only zero-point-two more, for 3.9%, then Trump wins all three of those states . And the election.
Prepare for a shock.
( And for a Rachel Maddow meltdown . Last time, her voice went weak, but she held back the tears. This time, it will look more like the videos of people at Hillary’s headquarters in 2016. They came expecting a victory party with fireworks, but instead ended up crying,… so weak in the knees that they had to hug their friends and lean on them for physical support, to avoid falling down.)
There was surprise at an unexpected result. But I think that your descriptions are a bit colorful.
If Trump were to win, I do expect a fair amount of disappointment among those who put the future of our country and its people over the delight of seeing liberal tears.
But, I do expect that if it comes to that, there will be many who are quite happy to burn right alongside the liberals they so despise, so long as they get their joy at seeing their pain for our country.
Despite everything going terribly last time, I remind myself that Trump would have lost that election in about 70% of runs.
The fact he won with roughly a 30% a total chance only comforts me because I think his chances are even less this time and…come on…God(?) has to make this one go the right way!
Yeah, the NYT has a similar graphic. I felt much better the first time I saw it.
I suppose this post will be what you call complacency, but pollsters tend to fight the last war. So they are adjusting controls to make it less likely they will underestimate the GOP vote this time. Because of this, I believe the polls. Plus, when there is an economic depression, the chances of the incumbent winning are lowered. So I predict a win for Biden.
In 2016, Trump was outspent 2-1. Doesn’t this indicate that Republicans were complacent that year? And they won anyway. Anti-Trump ads may be helping him. So save your money, don’t get overly excited if you can help it, and, if you haven’t already – vote.
P.S. I’m a little more worried about state legislatures sending false electoral certificates for the January 6, 2021 formal count, with Mike Pence then declaring his ticket as the victor, than I am worried that the Democratic ticket will legitimately lose.
Uh, that is not adding to a tie, absentee ballots, in states with a close election will have then about 1% Republican and 1% Democrat of the ballots tossed. Point is then that the 2% lead for Biden remains in that calculation.
Stick a fork in him, he’s done. Trump will almost certainly lose the election
I guess. I have definitely seen that graph(from the first post in this thread?) and it looks very hopeful.
It shouldn’t just be a defeat for Trump, it should be the biggest blowout since Reagan won re-election in '84.