Some commentators are looking over the horizon a bit without invoking candidate poll numbers at all, spelling out other indicators to how the general election may go down. The Status Kuo (Jay Kuo) and The Big Picture Substacks collaborated on the article linked below. I’ll list the section heads (despite ten sections, it’s a quick read) to serve as a summary:
1. Biden has an easier job ahead than Trump
2. Biden needs to re-win just 3 of 5 battleground states
3. The GOP is wedged on major issues
4. MAGA has gotten more, not less, extreme since it lost in 2022
5. Biden is presiding over a strong economy, not a recession (and people are demonstrably starting to realize it -b)
6. The GOP is disorganized and near bankrupt in key states
7. The Biden war chest is large and its ground game is impressive
8. Trump is hurting for money and lacks a serious ground game
9. Trump faces an uncertain legal status as a criminal defendant
10. Voters have not focused on Trump yet