Good news, perhaps (but let’s not get complacent): David Brooks today discussed how Americans increasingly use polls to vent, rather than to say who they’ll actually vote for (especially a year out).
The study he cited said that Americans can tell the difference between a poll and an election, even if pollsters and pundits cannot. Ha!
Yep, as I said- people blame all sorts of things on the current administration. But they usually figure things out come election time, when they see “Joe Biden (Dem) or herr trumpski (Repub)” and a list of asshole nobodies who only exists to lure a few voters away.
Is the implication here that Biden or his team is deliberately hiding him away for fear that he’ll do something that’ll reinforce his image as senile and decrepit?
Given that every stumble of feet or tongue or misspeak (that we all have, that he always had) will be played in isolation repetitively taken as proof of decrepitude? Might be smart to limit the chances?
Gift link:
Democrats: You Can Chill Out Now!
I agree with not looking at approval polls for the purpose of prognosticating who will win. Lots of voters are going to vote for a candidate they say they disapprove of.
I also agree with the median voter theorem, maybe in a weak form…
And I agree that there’s a substantial possibility Biden will win.
And, come to think of it, I have no objection to chilling out, although for a slightly different reason. No great public question is going to have a different real life outcome if we worry about it.
This.
If it matters to you, be an activist or party volunteer or donate or something. If it doesn’t really, then don’t. Armchair quarterbacking is fun but has never yet scored a point.
I’m certainly guilty of talking a bigger game than I play. No intent here for me to sound holier than anyone, much less everyone.
I wish to add one important word to the end of the sentence of mine you quote: here. As in “worry about it here.“ Some posters may be influential elsewhere, now or in the future.
Good point. We here are good at influencing one another with this medium. But it doesn’t go any farther than that unless one of us wants to carry it so. We have a few people who do have IRL clout. But most don’t. I don’t.
Regarding Biden’s low press conference rate, mentioned earlier in the thread, I recall stories like this:
The Bush Legacy: War on the Press
Biden is on track to hold even fewer.
Smart in the sense of effective electoral politics? Unknowable.
Should Biden be criticized for it as much as Bush was? Well, no. Biden is holding even fewer press conferences, so he be should be criticized for it more.
Will this lead to Trump winning? Unlikely. And if the media is correctly perceived to be going easy on poor old Joe, that will help Trump.
Liz Cheney says RNC chair ‘collaborating’ with Trump’s ‘Nazi propaganda’
Biden can’t say this himself — nor presidential — but his supporters can.
Has Biden invited her to the White House? She needs some serious schmoozing — dare I say flattery — from the big guy to help keep her away from No Labels. Republicans for Joe?
Joepublicans for Bidenomics?
Nikki Haley is against Russian propaganda online. Good for her.
Nikki Haley was my favorite of that bumch until,she came up with the ‘no anonymous internet messages’ thing. What a ridiculous idea. And the people who would be hurt most by it would be the disadvantaged, minorities, or people with unpopular opinions. At different times that can be people on the right or the left.
It’s also unconstitutiinal. She doesn’t seem to kmow that the Federalist Papers were written anonymously to protect the authors.
No one should be in favor of this idea. If you are on the left and like this, imagine how much fun it will be if Trump gets elected again, and the only way you can criticize him is to out yourself. Is that the future you want?
It is indeed a stupid idea. Who on the left is in favor of it? If no one, why bring it up?
As far as I’ve seen, internet privacy is something the left is in favor of. I mean, the EU is leading the charge on that front, and it isn’t the right wing who looks to the EU for inspiration.
Just saying it’s a bad idea that no one should support no matter whether you are on the right or left.
Yes, I agree with you 100% Sam.
Haley already walked that back. And even if she hadn’t, I wouldn’t worry about her actually going in that direction.
As I see it, Joe Biden is, as politicians go, a straight shooter. He really does believe that transgender discrimination is one of the great civil rights issues of our time. He really does support affirmative action. He really does believe that Israel can and should decisively defeat Hamas. He really does think we should, if necessary, actively defend Taiwan. He really does favor universal health care. Etc. Etc.
Haley? She’s desperate to find some line of messaging that could upset Trump’s juggernaut. Whether she actually agrees with what she’s saying is unlikely, and what she really believes is unknowable.
I wonder if she really believes she has a chance. I know hope springs eternal, but…
I do. If Trump flames out, wiser heads in the GOP might see her gender and ethnicity as the ticket to win over swing state voters disillusioned with old white male Biden. She has actual governing experience and is not clearly 100% batshit crazy.
Not saying it will work, but it’s not impossible.