President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election

Here’s more:

Fox News ran a story entitled “Biden political appointees to HIV council have ‘woke’ pasts tied to drag queen story hour, Planned Parenthood”. The White House was asked for comment and this is the reply:

This is the kind of thing they need to do with all the Fox News and Trump bullshit. You get nowhere trying to reason with them. Point and laugh.

I love that! :rofl: Biden hires good people.

I think he’ll probably run again, because it’s going on 200 years since a President voluntarily quit after one term. He’ll almost certainly win the nomination and, unless he does something to really piss off the progressive wing between now and then, probably won’t face significant opposition.

LBJ doesn’t count? I know he served the last part of JFK’s term but he only ran for and won once. He declined to run in 1968.

Likewise Harry Truman in 1952.

Truman only dropped out after getting creamed in the New Hampshire Democratic primary by Sen. Estes Kefauver,

At 3:15, PBS’s Lisa Desjardins lists off congress’s bipartisan accomplishments over the past two years, along with her concerns about the incoming congress. (not quite six minutes)

Don’t mind her glasses.

He stopped his predecessor’s frontal assault on American democracy, and has done a lot of good in office, but I have to admit I’m leery, given his age and what seem to be genuine cognitive issues, of electing him to a second term.

HIs cognition seemed fine during the State of the Union address. Yeah, he stumbles over his words and gets names mixed up, but he’s been doing that for decades.

I’ve been watching him off and on since 1988. He seems worse, and looks worse, these days. YMMV.

He has a good run over the last few months culminating in the SOTU and will very likely be the Dem candidate. No question that his age will be a factor though, and it remains to be seen if he can handle a long election campaign possibly against a much younger opponent.

Here are my thoughts.

I supported him and voted for him in 2020. Enthusiastically, because he seemed like exactly what America needed after Trump. And I’m glad he won and think he has been doing a great job.

I think he has taken some surprisingly strong stands in speeches, calling out those who engaged in or supported the insurrection attempt, and those who are trying to subvert democracy by spreading conspiracy theories about election fraud without evidence. He has had some real successes in office as well, and the country has been doing much better since he took office.

His State of the Union address was a masterpiece. Not only did he come out in favor of changes that the American people will like, he goaded Republicans into a trap that they barged into blindly, getting them to implicitly pledge to leave Social Security and Medicare alone.

But another thing I noticed in the SOTU is that he seemed tired. He delivered the speech well enough, he even had fewer gaffes than usual. His conviction was fine and he seemed fully cognizant. But he looked tired. He looked his age.

He almost reminded me of Doc Holliday as Val Kilmer portrayed him in Tombstone. Still sharp, still skilled, still capable, but clearly not at his peak and you are reminded that he won’t be around forever.

I would have loved Doc Holliday at my side in a gunfight, but I wouldn’t count on him being a long-term ally.

I agree with most of what you’ve said.

However, I dream of having the vigor to stand for an hour and 15-ish minutes to deliver an impassioned speech that was as effective as his SOTU, as well as glad-hand my way through the crowd for another hour coming and going. He’s old, for sure. But he’s better qualified than any Republican in the mix, IMHO.

We can’t discount his age. But I think it is trumped by experience. And it’s also why we have vice presidents. Who knows if he loses the plot in the upcoming 6 years, or if he suffers a sudden death or if he gets taken out by an assassin’s bullet?

If you can make your peace with Kamala Harris as the replacement during the next 6 years (as I eagerly have), then I see no problem with Biden. He’s done the hard work and he deserves a chance to see it through.

I’m fine with the idea of Harris as a replacement, and I don’t generally have a problem with Biden being reelected.

But I do think that his age is evident. He turned 80 a few months ago. Dick Clark was often considered to be ageless, but he passed away at 82. Being president is a stressful thing and probably wouldn’t help with anyone’s longevity.

I think it’s fair to say that in voting for Biden in 2024, not to be macabre but there’s a good chance you’re voting for Harris for POTUS. (Which again, I don’t have a problem with, but she doesn’t poll as well as Biden.)

I think it’s a fair thing to at least think about.

My concern isn’t so much about Biden’s mortality as the image he presents on the campaign trail. In 2020 he was running against a blithering idiot who had spent four years persuading millions of Americans he was unfit for office, and still won only by virtue of few hundred thousand votes in key states. How will he fare with those key voters when his opponent is younger, more vital-looking, and able to string together several consecutive coherent sentences?

I wish I could believe voters are more concerned with the ideas candidates share and the values they represent, but I can’t.

It’s also not a new thing.

https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-debate-that-changed-the-world-of-politics

I know, right? I was actually thinking of invoking Kennedy/Nixon and Clinton/Bush, but since I’m posting at work decided to keep it brief.

So how does Biden beat the younger, sexier candidate?

It depends on the candidate. Trump, obviously, is neither much younger (he’s less than 4 years younger) and I’m sure he isn’t “sexier” by most objective measurements. DeSantis would probably qualify, but he has the charisma of a block of wood and has been working his rear off to pander to the most extreme on the right that he would struggle to capture anyone in the middle.

Basically, for all his flaws, I can’t see the Republicans nominating someone with fewer flaws. And I’m just talking about image here, not actual issues or policies.

Again, I agree. And if I could think of a younger, “shovel-ready” Democrat who could handle things with most of the aplomb that Biden has, I’d put that name forward in a heartbeat. But who? There are some really good younger folks coming up, but they don’t have the breadth and depth of experience required to do what Biden is doing – and as pointed out earlier in the thread, what he also did for Obama in his years as VP.

I don’t think Biden’s ego is much tied up in this. If he feels it’s best for the country for him to step aside, he’ll do that. But if the calculus looks better for him to stay in the race with all his access to internal polling, I don’t question that decision as being the best one made at the time.

I’m only half-joking when I say, have you watched Ron DeSantis speak? Charlie Crist mopped the floor with him at the debate for Florida governor. He is not quick on his feet, and gets rattled pretty easily. I’m not worried about a match-up between him and Biden.

Niki Haley, on the other hand… she does worry me a bit.

And that’s the thing: In this macabre scenario we’re discussing, she doesn’t have to. She assumes the reins of power without ever having to face the horrible racial backlash she’d have to face as a regular candidate in the 2024 race. And how could Biden back anyone but her if he steps aside? Dems need the Black vote no matter what.

You’d think she’d be a good candidate. She represents diversity, she seems relatively smart, I don’t recall anything especially controversial about her, she has experience governing. But I think a lot of people on the right can’t get past their own biases to support her.

Here’s a random recent poll I dug up showing that she is barely in the double digits in polling:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3849915-haley-pulls-support-from-desantis-in-2024-gop-primary-poll/

I found it interesting that DeSantis pulls ahead of Trump if Haley is not included, but falls behind if she is. That tells me that there is a “not-Trump” contingent that is split apart when there are multiple candidates to choose from. And if that trend continues into the real primary, that could give Trump the nomination if he is still legally eligible to run.